Comments on: NIWA oddly denies everything

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:05:43 +0000

Re: Renowden’s accusation

This astute analysis at JoNova:

Ric Werme:
October 10th, 2010 at 10:28 am

NIWA has formally stated that, in their opinion, they are not required to use the best available information nor to apply the best scientific practices and techniques available at any given time. They don’t think that forms any part of their statutory obligation to pursue “excellence”.

And from the top of http://www.niwa.co.nz/ :

NIWA is a Crown owned research and consultancy company, with a global reputation as experts in water and atmospheric research. Our mission is to conduct leading environmental science to enable the sustainable management of natural resources for New Zealand and the planet.

So, in New Zealand you can do “leading environmental science” without applying the best scientific practices and techniques? Hmm, just like this side of the planet, e.g. NASA GISS.

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 00:44:03 +0000

Got this answer at JoNova

RichardC @ 5 & 7; the possible tort actions you describe have been largely superseded in most Western nations by the legislative equivalents of Fair Trading and Trade Practice Acts ; basically they codify misrepresentation.

Think I’ve got those Acts somewhere………

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 22:34:22 +0000

Have to share this.

My Google News this morning (Al Gore’s is/was an adviser):-

global cooling »

We’re sorry, we were unable to find any content for this section.

By: Andy

Andy — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 22:34:12 +0000

Hold onto your hats. The cavalry are about to arrive

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/09/new-zealands-niwa-temperature-train-wreck/

By: Richard Treadgold

Richard Treadgold — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 22:22:43 +0000

Thanks for the heads-up, Mike. It’s a good article, and I’m glad that we’re lending a little fortitude to like-minded people everywhere.

Like the believers in DAGW (looks like something at the back end of a sheep!), we’re saving the world, too.

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 21:34:10 +0000

Yes, the status is paramount.

By: Mike Jowsey

Mike Jowsey — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 19:31:56 +0000

Jo Nova has a new post about your post: http://joannenova.com.au/2010/10/new-zealand-niwa/

By: Richard Treadgold

Richard Treadgold — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 19:14:31 +0000

You’ve been a great help, Richard, thank you. The page has gone.

I notice the Wayback Machine cites a delay of up to six months before material appears in the Archive. So perhaps later…

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 13:50:23 +0000

“If 1990 was the bottom of a cool phase” – should read 1900, not 1990

By: Richard C

Richard C — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 13:41:48 +0000

“The conclusion that New Zealand has warmed since 1900 is not based only on the 7- station data set, or indeed on the additional 11 pristine sites mentioned above. Information from ship measurements of sea-surface temperatures and marine nighttime air temperatures over the oceans surrounding New Zealand indicate a warming trend through the twentieth century that is in close agreement with land-based temperature measurements (Folland and Salinger, 1995).”

Surface temperature trends and variations in New Zealand and the surrounding ocean, 1871–1993

1. Chris K. Folland1,
2. M. Jim Salinger2

Article first published online: 18 JAN 2007
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3370151103

Keywords
* New Zealand;
* sea-surface temperature;
* night marine air temperature;
* correction techniques;
* El Niño;
* Southern Oscillation;
* surface temperature trends and variations;
* SST data sets;
* New Zealand temperature series [NZTR? Must be 7SS. 11SS doesn't start until 1930, ]

Abstract

We compare homogenized series of maximum, minimum, and mean air temperature averaged over New Zealand, measured between 1871 [Why not 1855?] and 1993, with rigorously quality controlled marine temperature data measured over the surrounding ocean surface. The marine data are those of sea-surface temperature (SST) and air temperature measured at night (NMAT) on board ship, both corrected for time-varying instrumental biases. There is mostly very good agreement between the variations in the three data sets on time-scales down to a season [Selective NZT start date helps]. Some disagreements are related to short periods of sparsely observed marine data, particularly during the World Wars. Differences also exist between trends in the maximum and minimum New Zealand temperatures (NZT) particularly in winter. In addition, interannual variations in winter NZT tend not to track those of nearby marine temperatures quite as well as happens in other seasons.

Although it is not the main purpose of the paper to discuss the causes of NZT change, New Zealand temperature is known to be influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Tropical East Pacific SST variations are strongly related to ENSO and so are well correlated with NZT on time-scales of a few years to near a decade.[Now cool in 2010] We discuss these relationships, and also associations with Southern Hemisphere SST.

We conclude that annual NZT and NMAT over the nearby ocean surface have both warmed by about 0.7°C since the beginning of the century, with a slightly smaller increase in SST [Natch, you cranked down the NZT start temp]. This confirms previous work on the magnitude of the warming of New Zealand climate this century. Warming in NMAT and NZT in each season varies in a similar way, with consistently slightly smaller increases in SST [Natch, you started NZT at 1871, not 1855, thereby cranking down the NZT start temp]]. We also conclude that the UK Meteorological Office seasonal historical marine temperature data set appears to be generally of very good quality in the New Zealand region.

The NZTR is not a “record” according to NIWA’s Defence. So if NZTS and NZTR are one and the same in this paper, the NZ ETS is based on correlations between trends of non-records, at least one of which (NZT) has a selective start date.

Note also that the 1909 start date for NIWA’s “The best-fit linear trend over the past 100 years (1909 to 2008) shows NZ’s average annual temperature has increased by 0.9°C ” is also a VERY selective start date.- the turn of the century just happens to be the bottom of a cool phase.

http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/news/all/2009/nz-temp-record/seven-station-series-temperature-data (one left click on the image for a blowup)

If 1990 was the bottom of a cool phase, what if 2000 is the top of a warm phase?

It’s starting to look like it.