Royal Society HumiliatedRichard Treadgold | October 15, 2010
Global warming basic maths error
First published at Suite101.com Thursday, October 14, 2010
Top international experts prove British numbers on carbon dioxide are wrong. Royal Society blunder grossly exaggerates climate impact.
This is an adopted article.
German born chemist, Dr Klaus L. E. Kaiser has published evidence that proves the Royal Society (RS), London, has been caught out making schoolboy errors in mathematical calculations over the duration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere. Backed up by a review by a leading Swedish mathematics professor the revelation is a serious embarrassment to the credibility of the once revered British science institute and a major setback for its claims about climate change.
A gaffe in their own basic calculations led the RS to falsely find that CO2 would stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years rather than a dozen or so as per peer-reviewed studies show. Global warming skeptics have been quick to condemn the error and demand an apology and immediate correction.
The Royal Society advises the British government on matters concerning climate change. Due to the scale of the error any forthcoming review will necessarily result in a substantial downward revision of the threat posed by CO2 in the official government numbers.
Royal Society members rebel against climate stance
In an article published on Canada Free Press (CFP: October 13, 2010) Dr Kaiser explains how he picked up on the fault after a recent climate skeptic “rebellion” by senior members of the world’s oldest scientific institute forced the RS to revise their guide “Climate change: a summary of the science”(30 September 2010). Of great concern to Dr Kaiser was one offending paragraph under the heading The Carbon Cycle and Climate where the RS says:
“Current understanding indicates that even if there was a complete cessation of emissions of CO2 today from human activity, it would take several millennia for CO2 concentrations to return to preindustrial concentrations” [emphasis added].
Dr Kaiser’s article poses some very embarrassing questions about the competence of authors of the Royal Society document. The German chemist expertly dismantles the claims by the Royal Society that it would take “millennia” for atmospheric CO2 to return to preindustrial levels. Such a claim, he says, “cannot be true.”
Swedish Mathematics Professor cites “elementary” mistakes
Backing up Kaiser’s analysis is none other than Sweden’s eminent mathematics Professor Claes Johnson, who was quick to respond to the German’s findings when posting on his blog, ‘Claes Johnson on Mathematics and Science.’
“The revised statement by the Royal Society Climate Change Summary of Science is full of scientific misconceptions as noted in the earlier post Royal Society in Free Fall, ” said the Professor of Applied Mathematics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
Posing the question about this shocking error on his blog the math professor added, “How can it be that even elementary mathematics is beyond the capacity of FRS?”
North American experts suggest sinister motive behind ‘error’
Leading Canadian Climate scientist, Professor Tim Ball, emailed this author to add his own comments and suggests the issue of residency time was part of the strategy to increase the focus on CO2. He says, “It is part of a bundle of claims about CO2 that are now shown false and Dr Kaiser’s is another major correction. I believe they were all produced with malice and forethought driven by the political need to demonize CO2.” Professor Ball further believes such a position is supported by the evidence of how the RS dealt with other issues including advocacy of dubious computer programs.
Climate writer and former US Navy meteorologist, Dr. Martin Hertzberg added, “The failure of the Royal Society and the APS to do their homework on this question and to accept propaganda as though it was valid science, is scientific malfeasance on a grand scale.”
Questions the Royal Society must now answer
Kaiser, a Canadian citizen for decades, is a professional chemist of almost 40 years’ standing who conducts research in environmental chemistry as well as being a successful science author. His latest book ‘Convenient Myths,’ examines “green desires and expectations and juxtaposing these with the physical and chemical facts and realities” urging us to all be skeptical in the continuing climate debate.
Taking the Royal Society to task Kaiser refers to several peer-reviewed papers reporting the half-life of CO2 in the atmosphere to be “between 5 and 10 years.” The chemist calculates that with a half-life of 5 years means that more than 98% of a substance will disappear in a time span of 30 years.
The German then poses the question that if CO2 were to stay in the atmosphere for millennia, why has its level in the atmosphere not doubled in the last 15 years, or gone up tenfold-plus over the last 100 hundred years?
Moreover, the CFP article refers to data collected by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Figures show one volcano alone is estimated to emit 9×10^6 kg CO2 per day, or 10^9 kg C per year. The article advises us there are thousands of other volcanic vents, above ground and below the sea, which also emit CO2 on a continuous basis, not to mention the occasional but massive eruptions of volcanoes which have been dormant for many years, such as on Iceland earlier this year.
Position of Royal Society now “untenable”
In conclusion Dr. Kaiser dismisses the claims of the Royal Society as “clearly untenable.” He admonishes the once peerless institution for failing to do a few “simple order-of-magnitude calculations” so as to as check the veracity of their claims. Even though it took months to
prepare that document, Klaus says, “it appears the Royal Society’s math is still wrong.”
Finally, he cautions us “…not to trust all the hype or myths you hear or read… but look at the facts, then make up your own mind, and do believe in a better tomorrow.”
Kaiser, K. L. E, ‘The Carbon Cycle and Royal Society Math,’ Canadafreepress.com (October 13, 2010), accessed online: October 14, 2010.
Johnson, C., ‘FRS Multiplication Table and CO2,’ claesjohnson.blogspot.com (October 14, 2010), accessed online: October 14, 2010.
Ball, T., email correspondence with author (October 14, 2010).
Hertzberg, M., email correspondence with author (October 14, 2010).
Gerlach TM, McGee KA, Ekiast T, Sutton AJ, Doukas MP, 2002. Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kilauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir. Journal of geophysical research, 107: ECV3.1-ECV 3.15.
Read more at Suite101: Royal Society Humiliated by Global Warming Basic Math Error