Finger trouble?

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/south_pacific.html

For Tuvalu he comments that “If the depression of the 1998 cyclone is ignored there was no change in sea level at Tuvalu between 1994 and 2008; 14 years. The claim of a trend of + 6.0 mm/yr is without any justification”.

Think this may have been mentioned before but didn’t have time to check

The other paper by MM is just garbage – as you knew. De Freitas again. Pielke is also
losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as well – frequently as I see
it.
I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep
them
out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !
Cheers
Phil

http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=419

Response to “Comment on ‘Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature’” by Foster et al.

J. D McLean1, C.R. de Freitas2* and R.M. Carter3

Abstract
Key data presented in McLean at al (2009a) show that the Southern Oscillation is a dominant and consistent influence on mean global temperature and, contrary to what Foster et al. (2010) imply, the data in question (Figure 7) were not subjected to contrived statistical analysis. We explain that there are natural mechanisms that might account for the strong coherence of Southern Oscillation Index and mean global temperature. Our research did not set out to analyse trends in mean global temperature, but, should any such trend exist, it follows from our analysis that in most part it would be a response to the natural climate mechanisms that underlie the Southern Oscillation. We believe the findings of our work are important and reinforce similar conclusions from previous research using other datasets. We therefore stand by the analysis and conclusions of our paper.
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No wonder this had to be rejected; Foster, Annan, Jones, Mann, Renwick, Salinger, Schmidt and Trenberth got nothin’.

Using body language to gauge a politicians thinking is fraught with difficulty anyway given that their neural processes are subject to genetic modification once elected and exposed to the excess of counter-intuition that pervades political decision making.

J. D. McLean,1 C. R. de Freitas,2 and R. M. Carter3

Received 16 December 2008; revised 23 March 2009; accepted 14 May 2009; published 23 July 2009.

[1] Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958
2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the
longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Nin˜o
Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20
S and 20
N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics.
Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.
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Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter

G. Foster,1 J. D. Annan,2 P. D. Jones,3 M. E. Mann,4 J. Renwick,5 J. Salinger,6 G. A. Schmidt,7 K. E. Trenberth8

Abstract. McLean et al. [2009] claim that the El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), accounts for as much as 72% of the global tropospheric temperature anomaly (GTTA) and an even higher 81% of this
anomaly in the tropics. They conclude that the SOI is a “dominant and consistent influence on mean global temperatures,” “and perhaps recent trends in global temperatures”. However, their analysis is incorrect in a number of ways, and greatly overstates the influence of ENSO on the climate system. This comment first briefly reviews what is understood about the influence of ENSO on global temperatures, then goes on to show that the analysis of MFC09 severely overestimates the correlation between temperature
anomalies and the SOI by inflating the power in the 2–6 year time window while filtering out variability on longer and shorter time scales. It is only because of this faulty analysis that they are able to claim such extremely high correlations. The suggestion in their conclusions that ENSO may be a major contributor to recent trends in global temperature is not supported by their analysis or any physical theory presented in that paper, especially as the analysis method itself eliminates the influence of trends on the purported correlations.
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Anyone know if anything has arisen since – rebuttal to comments? revised paper? new paper?