From Wikipedia:

A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a short-scale quadrillion) BTU,[1] or 1.055 × 1018 joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.

The unit is used by the U.S. Department of Energy in discussing world and national energy budgets. The global primary energy production in 2004 was 446 quad, equivalent to 471 EJ. [2]

It puts an absolute ceiling on development.

Given the number of people in the world living on a dollar a day or so, that’s a discouraging insight in the context of the current AGW war on fossil fuel energy.

From the Act:

22A Transitional provision for liability to surrender units to cover emissions from activities relating to liquid fossil fuels, stationary energy, and industrial processes

(1) This section applies to a person who—

(a) carries out an activity listed in Part 2, Part 3, or subpart 1 of Part 4 of Schedule 3 in the period 1 July 2010 to 31 December 2012; or

(b) is a participant in relation to an activity listed in Part 3 or 4 of Schedule 4 in the period 1 July 2010 to 31 December 2012.

(2) Despite anything in this Act, a person to whom this section applies is only liable to surrender, and may only surrender, 1 unit for each 2 whole tonnes of emissions from the activity in respect of the period referred to in subsection (1).

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2002/0040/latest/DLM2645780.html#DLM2645780

Regulatory Impact Statement
New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: Industrial allocation

http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/publications/ris/ets-industrial-allocation.html

Post-1989 forest land is primarily exotic or indigenous forest that is established after 31 December 1989 on land that was non-forest land on 31 December 1989. For these forests:
• Owners of the forest land (or those with a registered interest in the forest on the land) may voluntarily become Participants in the ETS, and in doing so are entitled to receive NZUs for the increase in carbon stocks in their forests from 1 January 2008

Pre-1990 forest land is an area that was forest land on 31 December 1989, and that on 31 December 2007 is still forest land and is covered by predominantly exotic forest species.
For these forests:
• Landowners have no obligations under the ETS if pre-1990 forest land is not deforested (that is, if it is re-established after harvesting).
• No NZUs are earned for an increase in the carbon stock of pre-1990 forest land.

The Fonterra coal energy was the greater figure but I can’t remember for how many factories.

I’ve still got the report somewhere if anyone wants to fact check.

Bryan first says “The science is not difficult to comprehend”. then when challenged pleads:

“You know perfectly well I make no claim to be a scientist and I won’t be making the comment you invite. But the Real Climate Wiki indicates that there’s nothing in what you provide to alter my lay understanding of the science.’

Gareth spat the dummy;

http://hot-topic.co.nz/clutching-at-straws/#comment-20623

Back On Topic

I don’t think the Southland Times article from last year has their facts right. The Oct 2010 ETS Forestry Guide has this:

The primary unit of trade in the ETS is the New Zealand Unit (NZU). One NZU represents one tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) either released to the atmosphere (emissions) or removed from the atmosphere (removals). The Government issues NZUs for increases in the carbon stocks in Kyoto-compliant forests and these may be held, or bought and sold, within New Zealand [or converted for overseas sale]

If a Participant does not have sufficient units, they are required to buy additional units for surrender. During a transition period that applies until 31 December 2012, Participants in the forestry sector can pay cash at a fixed rate of $25 per NZU as an alternative to surrendering units.

The $25 per NZU is compatible with the shipping rate above. I searched for $12.50 in the pdf and no occurrence.

The European spot price is EU14.89 (about NZ$26 before brokerage).

http://www.eex.com/en

But I don’t think those “Emission Rights” are a 1:1 conversion with NZU’s.

Even so, NZ$25 is nowhere near the C$200 tax proposal.

e.g

Foresters accumulating credits have the option of either selling their credits on the ETS or accepting $12.50 per tonne of carbon from the government. “Foresters can take the $12.50 or sell their credits overseas on the spot market. They can still do that under the amended scheme. The spot market is paying $28 and climbing. Therefore they’d be silly to sell in NZ at a set market price of $12.50. But every credit sold overseas by a NZ forest is a credit the government cannot claim in its emissions inventory.

“If I was a forester I’d be holding off to 2015 because carbon credit prices will go sky high. Our carbon credits will carry a gold-plated premium.”

http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/business/national-farm/3011135/Farming-ETS-shows-biggest-change-of-all-trading-sectors

I smell a bubble that has already popped

Forestry in the Emissions Trading Scheme

http://www.maf.govt.nz/sustainable-forestry/2010-ets-guide.pdf

Basically forest owners can sell their credits (NZ$25 per NZU) but they have to pay that unit for deforestation. So a working forest incurs costs but a forester or farmer that plants marginal land and doesn’t fell the trees earns credits.

Whether they can find a market with willing buyers at $25 over the long term remains to be seen. We know one market has gone belly up after trading around 60c and last trade $3.41.

Richard T must have insider knowledge because he’s touting $50 /sarc