Cooling forecast comes trueRichard Treadgold | December 1, 2010
NIWA, where are you?
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
In July last year three climate scientists published a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” concluded that nature, not man, was responsible for “recent global warming.”
The paper, by John McClean, Chris DeFreitas and Bob Carter, shows that what the SOI does now, the temperature will do in between five and eight months’ time.
Simple. But does it work to predict global temperatures?
This is a preliminary report
Earlier this year, well-known civil engineer Bryan Leyland, of Auckland, became interested in finding out. He issued this graph which predicted temperatures in late 2010:
Today, taking the latest known figures and estimating for the end of November, Bryan put together this composite image showing the cooling that has occurred since June:
Bryan said today that he’s waiting with baited breath for the November results from Roy Spencer at UAH. He added: ďThe world has started to cool. And it could be cool for the next seven months.”
Will this cooling kill 2010 as the hottest year?
Will the climate “establishment” notice there is a forecasting tool available? Will they deny that it works? Does it work?