More proof global temps lag SOIRichard Treadgold | January 10, 2011
NIWA, listen to this, it’s amazing
On December 1 last year, we wrote about Bryan Leyland’s prediction of significant cooling before the end of the year coming true. You can see from the chart exactly what happened. Not only that, it would appear that the temperature has not finished going down yet.
This remarkable forecast, now some eight months old, comes out of a 2009 paper showing a lagged correlation between global temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, and indicative also of the start (and the state) of a La Nina (as now) or an El Nino. This correlation is a lot more convincing than comparing global temperature with CO2 levels!
Leyland’s latest prediction
What is remarkable about this is that a retired engineer in New Zealand, armed only with Excel and the paper by McLean et al., was able to make this prediction and publish it on the Internet. Why did the “climate scientists” fail in this? They said nothing about end-of-year cooling, predicting instead that 2010 would be the hottest year ever! It wasn’t, but it was only marginally cooler than 1998.
Bryan now makes another prediction: world temperatures will remain cool until June at least. Whether or not this is the beginning of long-term cooling induced by sunspots (or anything else) remains to be seen.
SOI highest December value ever recorded
But there is no doubt that the present La Nina is intense. According to the Australian BoM ENSO Wrap-Up web page, “The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.” These seem to indicate we’re in for at least several months of cooling.
Here’s a longer-term look at the astonishing lagged correlation between global temperature and the SOI. Why hasn’t anyone else noticed this?
UPDATE 1, 11 JAN 2011, 09:30 a.m. NZDT
Joanne Nova has an interesting post on this global temperature prediction. She also reminds us that the SOI trace is inverted, as well as being pushed seven months into the future.