Skeptics call out psychics, astrologers, etc. when their predictions don’t pan out … how will McLean’s prediction be treated by those who promoted it, even treating it as fact (“because” above)?

(in reference to the attacks on Ring)

Obviously the term “barbeque summer” never crossed her path.

A small slice of humble pie was eaten at HT too.

The tidal movement of the ocean overburden must have some effect on tectonic movement but I would have thought more as a gradual pressure release than a trigger.

http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2011/03/fallen-snow/

On your comment “ .. Would not the nanometer diameter apertures only occur in ice .. ”, I think not. I wasn’t able to open the Dartmouth College paper “Advanced Electron Microscopy Techniques for Studying Firn and Ice Cores” but did look at “Diffusion of air molecules in antarctic ice-sheet” by Professor Fukazawa. That one is concerned with migration through the ice after close-off, which is an additional process that distorts the composition of the air “trapped” in pockets in the ice but I’ve E-mailed her in the hopes that she has done research relating to the firn. I’m talking about the situation that arises in the firn at a time before “close-off” when the pores (that exist in the snow from the beginning) have been compressed until they are too small for the larger molecules (N2, O2, CH4, etc – see my comment of March 14 at 10:47 am).

You ask “ .. is migration necessarily toward the surface? .. ” and I hypothesise that, although there will be migration in any direction where a large enough pore exists, mean flow will be towards the surface because that is the direction of least resistance. CO2, being one of the smaller molecules, will escape from the air pockets and head towards the surface, enriching the levels above with CO2.

I refer you again to my comment of March 16 at 7:34 am in which I made reference to the 2006 paper “Evidence for molecular size dependent gas fractionation in firn air derived from noble gases, oxygen, and nitrogen measurements” by Huber et al (http://icebubbles.ucsd.edu/Publications/Huber_closeoff_EPSL2006.pdf). In that comment I said QUOTE: The paper talks specifically about a fourth size-dependent fractionation as an additional mechanism which distorts the composition of air that is being gradually “trapped” with ice yet makes not a mention of CO2! Why is this? – in my opinion it is because the researchers overlooked the significance of collision v kinetic diameter for the CO2 molecule. This is highlighted by Table 2 (Page 65) “Molecular properties used in the model and close-off fractionations factors” which shows CO2 having a diameter of 3.9Å and Fig. 8 (Page 69), which show that N2, Kr and Xe effectively enjoy close-off fractionation factors for 1 (i.e. no size-dependent fractionation). This gives the impression, when considering only collision diameter, that CO2 also experiences no such fractionation and end of investigation – but is it? Once again this highly regarded paper gives no consideration to kinetic diameter. UNQUOTE.

In that same comment I referred to the 2006 paper “Fractionation of gases in polar ice .. ” by Severinghaus and Battle (http://icebubbles.ucsd.edu/Publications/closeoff_EPSL.pdf). In Section 3.1. Permeation model they say “The model is based upon the hypothesis that the close-off fractionation occurs because the ice lattice is slightly permeable to gases, with permeability being much higher for some gases than others”. Their Fig. 3 (Page 478) presents a simplified picture of three firn air bubbles A below B below C as a QUOTE: Schematic of our idealized model for permeation-related fractionation during bubble close-off. Bubble A is in a more advanced stage of compression than bubble B, as is bubble B relative to bubble C, which has not yet closed off. Bubble pressure therefore decreases from A to B and from B to C. It is assumed that most fractionation occurs because of gas permeation through the ice lattice from bubble B to bubble C, through the thin wall of ice separating the two. Gases are assumed to be free to diffuse quickly into the open firn from bubble C. No net fractionation of the bulk ice occurs by the permeation from bubble A to bubble B, because the fractionated gases simply accumulate in bubble B. The model also assumes that bubble C will close off when a constant amount of compression has occurred (5% in the present model) relative to the porosity at the moment that the adjacent bubble (bubble B) closed off, on average. UNQUOTE.

I hypothesise that size-dependent fractionation of CO2 (and molecules with kinetic diameters smaller than 0.33nm) occurs not only due to permeation through the ice lattice (as investigated by Professor Fukazawa and assumed by Severinghaus ans Battle) but also by Knudsen diffusion through those small pores, leaving moledules of N2, Os and CH4 behind in the lower air bubbles. As compression progresses, bubble A closes off for all air components, the number of pores capable of passing CO2 and smaller molecules to bubble C reduces and pores out of bubble C to higher level reduce to a size that only allows CO2 and smaller to a bubble D. The CO2 that has enriched the air in bubble C is forced into bubble D due to the increased pressure. Effectively the CO2 and smaller molecules are squeezed up the ice sheet towards the surface, a process that takes place over the long period during which close-off is progressing.

Let’s not forget the staement in the abstract that “The large atoms Kr and Xe do not appear to be fractionated by this process, despite the large size difference between the two gases, suggesting a threshold atomic diameter of 3.6Å above which the probability becomes very small that the gas will escape from the bubble” or the fact that the kinetic diameter of CO2 is well below that majic 3.6Å.

Now, where does my hypothesis contradict the laws of physics?

Best regards, Pete Ridley

Apparently he and the government chief scientist have done some statistical analysis and shown that there is no correlation between Ring’s predictions and earthquakes.

This is great to see. Now can we do the same exercise between CO2 emissions and extreme weather events? Can’t be hard.

I don’t put much store in Ken Ring’s predictions, after all he did used to read cat’s paws, but the complete lack of self awareness on the climate predictions is amazing.

I can tell you that neighbours of mine were prepared to move away from the beach because of the RSNZ report on sea level rise. This “not based on empirical science” report managed to get a fair bit of MSM coverage and scare the locals too.

E.g. Smith

“Geotechnical engineer Nick Smith has hit out at natural disaster claims by Ken Ring as “bogus”, saying that future decisions on risk need to be based on rational science.

The Nelson MP said it is “reckless and irresponsible for people like Ken Ring to be speculating on the timing of future major earthquakes with no scientific basis”.”

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/reckless-quake-claims-not-helping-said-smith-4073216

And Renowden

“These predictions, made by an arrogant, ignorant, and foolish astrologer have somehow persuaded members of my community — friends and neighbours — that there is a real risk of a major earthquake in North Canterbury some time over this weekend. Some have left home, others have admitted being unsettled by the “moon man” and his predictions. For people who have already lived through two major earthquakes, suffered the knife-edge uncertainty of repeated aftershocks, stressed and traumatised by the loss of loved ones, the sort of “opinions” offered by Ken Ring are the worst kind of medicine.”

He then goes on to bemoan the MSM coverage that Ring is getting

“But the real responsibility for the stress being foisted on my friends is not Ring’s — charlatan and hypocrite though he is — it lies with the people who give him credibility, the newspapers who publish his weather columns and fishing hints, the radio stations that give him air time, and the TV stations who have credulously interviewed him or reported his earthquake predictions and their impact on the Canterbury population.”

Their hypocrisy and the irony of of their use of the words “bogus” and “crank” has probably not occurred to either of them.

samv at HT came up with this

“Apparently there is a very slight, statistically significant connection between perigee and earthquakes – something like an extra 2% of small quakes happen at perigee according to papers you can find on scholar.google.com.”

That’s a better correlation than CO2 levels and temperature.

Trajectory of CO2 in ice lattice (approx 1.25nm x 1.25nm)

http://www.nanonet.go.jp/english/mailmag/2005/files/054b2.gif

Seems to confirm that CO2 migrates along apertures for a fraction of a nm, although the image is a simulation. Not only that, but the molecules create their own pathway by distorting the ice lattice.

From website nanonet

http://www.nanonet.go.jp/english/mailmag/2005/054b.html

JAPAN NANONET BULLETIN – 54th Issue – September 29, 2005

Tomoko IKEDA-FUKAZAWA
Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Chemistry, Meiji University
Diffusion of air molecules in antarctic ice-sheet
(Issued in Japanese: March 23, 2004)

Diffusion of air molecules in ice was found from Raman spectroscopic study of natural ice from the Antarctic ice-sheet (T. Ikeda-Fukazawa et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (1999)). The results have important implications for the reconstruction of the paleo-atmosphere from polar ice cores. In order to investigate the diffusion of air molecules in Antarctic ice-sheets in periods of tens of thousands years, I have been studying the dynamics of water and air molecules in ice crystals.

I have performed molecular dynamics simulations involving the diffusion of air molecules (e.g., N2, O2, and CO2) in ice crystals and observed the diffusion hops for these molecules from a stable site to the adjacent site. The results showed that the diffusion mechanism for the air molecules significantly differs from small atoms, such as He. The air molecules diffuse by distorting the ice lattice (Fig. 2), whereas He atom hops from a stable interstitial site to the adjacent site without distorting the lattice (Fig. 1). The diffusion velocity for this mechanism is a few orders of magnitude larger than the value estimated from the interstitial mechanism. In order to reconstruct accurate records of the paleo-atmosphere from polar ice sheets, I have developed a model for the variation process of the distribution of air molecules in the ice sheets.

E-mail: fukazawa(AT)isc.meiji.ac.jp

Web Page http://www.isc.meiji.ac.jp/~chem/fukazawa/fukazawa-e.html

Ph.D., Applied Physics, Hokkaido University
M. Eng., Applied Physics, Hokkaido University
B. Eng., Applied Physics, Hokkaido University

Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. Research Projects.

Advanced Microstructural Characterization of Polar Ice Cores
Funded by the National Science Foundation

This project aims to fully characterize the microstructure in ice cores, in particular the microstructural locations of impurities, grain orientations and strain gradients. This work will complement the optical observations, electrical conductivity measurement, and precise, detailed measurements of the soluble ion and gas contents that are performed by others. Linking the concentrations of soluble ions and gases, measured to a few parts per billion, to the optically determined annual layer structure and the stable isotope data in ice cores has enabled a great deal to be established about the concentrations and depth/age distributions of particles, trace gases and impurities for several polar ice cores. Ice core studies carried out by several groups contribute immensely to our understanding of paleoclimate and, to our ability to predict future climate change. The work will build on previous measurements and technique development in this area, as well as focusing on new techniques to characterize ice cores. The work will use both scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with X-ray energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and confocal scanning optical microscopy coupled with Raman spectroscopy (RS) to determine the microstructural locations of impurities and correlate this information with depth/age, and impurity type and concentration for several polar ice cores. The Broader Impacts of the proposed work are that knowledge of the location of impurities coupled with the grain orientation (both c- and a-axis) and grain misorientation information will allow paleoclimatologists to better interpret ice core data and other scientists to understand and model the physical and mechanical properties of natural ice sheets.

http://engineering.dartmouth.edu/baker/polar_ice_cores.html

Also this page:-

Studies in Natural and Artificial Ice Mechanical Properties

http://engineering.dartmouth.edu/baker/ice.html

Presentation

* Advanced Electron Microscopy Techniques for Studying Firn and Ice Cores (PDF)
http://engineering.dartmouth.edu/baker/pdf/firn.pdf

Firn Workshop

Find out more about the Workshop on the Microstructure and Properties of Firn, March 10-11, 2008.
http://engineering.dartmouth.edu/firn/

References [Note these]