Comments on: Sixes all around the park from Monckton

By: G.S. Williams

G.S. Williams — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:01:53 +0000

I feel sorry for L.M. having to debate with such w***ers. That Dr Dennis hadn’t a clue. He was hopeless, it appeared to me that he certainly couldn’t have prepared anything. I thought that L.M. could have debated that guy in his sleep and still trashed him.

G.S. Williams

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 08:56:45 +0000

Jo Nova is reporting that this debate swayed public opinion by 9% away from the idea that concerns about global warming are exaggerated.

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/07/this-is-why-they-want-to-stop-skeptics-speaking-monckton-swings/

By: Cristopher Monckton Coming to New Zealand | New Zealand Climate Change

Cristopher Monckton Coming to New Zealand | New Zealand Climate Change — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 22:20:50 +0000

[...] debating opponent was economist Richard Deniss, and this is how the Climate Conversation Group characterised the debate: Economist Richard Deniss must be no intellectual weakling, but he gave [...]

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:14:36 +0000

Yes Jim, there’s two sets of parameters – initialization and projection. The RCP Database of projection scenarios is here :-

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=compare

Blurb:-

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome

“The RCP database aims at documenting the emissions, concentrations, and land-cover change projections of the so-called “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs).”

The scenarios are complementary to the IPCC SRES scenarios.

The model groups generally all use the same initialization climatologies and historical data e.g. Levitus, Lean (solar) and standard concentration datasets e.g. Law Dome – Mauna Loa CO2. For some comparative studies the initialization datasets and timeframes are specified for the model spinup. I could dig up a spec if you were interested.

Basically though, the parameters are preset for all models so yes, if you want an idea of the results just look at the RCPs.

By: Jim McK

Jim McK — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:04:01 +0000

These models all feel pretty much the same. Is there anywhere a complete list of the input parameters for any of the recognised models? That might at least give a rough idea of what they were capable of predicting.

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 09:45:11 +0000

AR4 lists 19 models but says 23 are used.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch8s8-2.html#table-8-1

I don’t think there is duplication in that list just variations of configuration. There’s a lot more models now but not every one will be an AR5 submission and some AR4 models have been superseded. At least one model has another models core e.g. CSIROs ACCESS has a UKMO core.

By: Richard Treadgold

Richard Treadgold — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 05:09:08 +0000

So 14 models are duplicates? There are only 9 models?

By: Australis

Australis — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 03:50:14 +0000

Denniss kept repeating the “overwhelming” authority of “thousands” of scientists, without ever once stating what these nameless people agreed upon.

On the face of it, there are lots and lots of Government scientist who are hired to work on the thesis that the world is warming (accepted by most sceptics) and that human activities contribute to this (also accepted by most sceptics). So there is some consensus.

If that’s all there was to it, there wouldn’t be any passionate debate. Nor would there be any carbon tax, ETS, subsidised renewables, junkets, world government, etc, etc . All these factors arise from the claims of future ACCELERATED warming, that’s MOSTLY caused by mankind and has CATASTROPHIC impacts.

There’s no consensus on any of these quantitative issues, and no evidence either! They all came out of computer models. Most scientists don’t even have a model – in fact there are only 22 of them, and 14 of those are duplicates. No “overwhelming thousands” here!

By: Richard Treadgold

Richard Treadgold — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 02:56:12 +0000

I’m looking forward to meeting you all. I don’t know the timing of the evening meeting, but it probably won’t be late, so there could be time afterwards for a beer and a chat. But let’s look out for the details and make a decision then.

I’m also considering driving to Whangarei on the Saturday for his meeting with the farmers but I’m not yet sure whether I can do that.

By: Jim McK

Jim McK — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 02:46:21 +0000

I’d be keen if it worked out

PRINZ have not finalised plans for the public meeting Thursday 4th August yet but it will be open to members and non members. They will post details on http://www.prinz.org.nz shortly