‘Our research does not provide any evidence that larger atoll islands are capable of vertical growth, we do not suggest this is occurring’

‘Thus atoll island susceptibility to inundation through sea level rise remains unchanged – i.e. all low lying atoll islands are directly threatened by sea level rise given their land elevation is very low and rates of sea level rise are increasing’

Fair enough, the paper doesn’t address the issue of vertical growth. However, if Dr Webb thinks coral atolls are at risk of inundation now, when sea level rise is minor (and, for the last two years, negative), how does he explain their survival during an episode of sea level rise of about 130 metres? Inner hydraulics?

He finds no evidence of coral atoll vertical growth (but has he been looking for it?) but I wouldn’t expect to see evidence of vertical growth until the sea level actually rises, since that should be the trigger the coral responds to. As sea level rise over the last 17 years, according to the Colorado University Sea Level Research Group, has been about 50 mm, we should look for about that amount of vertical growth in the coral. But it’s not much, so would we find it? I think we should keep looking.

Yet an author of the study says that this is untrue.

‘Our research does not provide any evidence that larger atoll islands are capable of vertical growth, we do not suggest this is occurring’ says co-author Dr. Arthur Webb.

Together with Paul Kench, Dr. Webb co-wrote the article ‘The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific’ that contained revolutionary findings regarding the horizontal growth of Pacific islands gained from studying satellite images.

‘Aside from the paper I sadly see no evidence of substantive vertical growth in any larger atoll islands. Thus atoll island susceptibility to inundation through sea level rise remains unchanged – i.e. all low lying atoll islands are directly threatened by sea level rise given their land elevation is very low and rates of sea level rise are increasing’ summarises Dr. Webb.

‘It has greatly saddened me that the research has been so poorly presented by the press and that in some cases it has been wilfully and cynically miss-used’ concludes Dr. Webb.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1109/S00259/external-leaders-not-correctly-briefed-on-sea-level-rises.htm

‘Not correctly briefed’ is a polite way to put it. Personally I think they’re straight out lying.

By Nils-Axel Morner, Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden, morner@pog.nu

Ban Ki Moon and the Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum have recently claimed that serious sea level rise problems occur both in Tuvalu and Kiribati. This is what two misguided politicians may say. But what is the reality, we must ask.

The answer is clear and straight forward: the is no sea level rise going on – at least for the last 18 years – either in Tuvalu or in Kiribati.

[...]

So, if our observational facts say: no rise in sea lever, why are people continuing to drive the sea level rise illusion. It doesn’t become better (rather the opposite) if you are the Secretary-General for the United Nation or Pacific Island Forum. It is simply wrong. But what is worth; it steals the limelight from real problems in the real world.

The same is true for Kiribati. It lies in an area of the SW Pacific where satellite altimetry proposes a sea level rise in the order of 5 mm/year. Gray (2010) showed that this does indeed not concur with the last SEAFRAME tide gauge record from Kiribati (Fig. 3). The record spans 17 years. Still, it does not record any long-term sea level rise; just a stability.

[...]

Obviously, there is a major clash between scenario based computer simulations and reality in the form of observational based facts and observations in nature itself. Therefore, there are all logical reasons to turn away from the propaganda information and concentrate all attention and interest on observational facts. In this case, those facts give a very clear and irrefutable message; there is no alarming sea level rise either in Tuvalu or Kiribati.

Ban Ki Moon and his friend from the Pacific Islands Forum should both feel ashamed of their claims and statements with respect to Tuvalu and Kiribati.

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate
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As far as I can gather the TOPEX/Jason global data from USA is baloney but I accept (pragmatically) that it will be the source-of-choice for agenda based communications and we will just have to go with it. The flip-side being that its decelerating.

Give me tide guage (or Euro Envisat satellite data if pushed) any day.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/european-union/news/article.cfm?o_id=269&objectid=10749175

I don’t suppose this will get much media coverage thanks to the Rugby.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/sep/05/europe-australia-carbon-trading

Let’s hope the Euro collapses before this can happen.