Gareth is looking forward to warming in 2012 (Shapes of things (2012 and all that)):-

A return to El Niño conditions in the first half of 2012 would boost global average temperatures, and that, coupled with the currently active phase of the 11 year solar cycle, might be enough to push 2012 above 2010 and 2005 for a new record. But more importantly, a return to El Niño would also change the patterns of weather around the world, and with them change the places that experience record extremes

The “more importantly” element would indicate that Gareth is now very gung-ho on extreme weather and has gone big on it in his post (tinged with a little disappointment but he has managed to extract some consolation):-

So: 2011 was the year of extremes, beyond any shadow of doubt. Wherever you looked around the world, there were record-breaking floods, heatwaves and hugely damaging extreme weather events. The USA alone had 14 separate extreme weather events with billion dollar plus damage bills (NOAA puts it at 12 with 2 more to finalise, the World Meteorological Organisation plumps for 14). The year broke no records for global average temperature — 2011 will probably end up as the 10th or 11th warmest year in the long term record — but it will be the warmest ever La Niña year.

THE WARMEST EVEEEEEER!!!!!!!!

So here’s hoping that Gareth’s dreams for the new year will all come true (but not that nasty East Siberian seabed methane surprise):-

So what do am I looking out for in 2012?

* More extreme weather events, with a pattern shift if ENSO changes phase.
* Possible new global temperature record, if El Niño arrives early enough in the year.
* Continued Arctic sea ice melt (in both volume and area), with a possibility1 of a new record minimum in September.
* Lots of fine words at the Rio +20 conference in June, but little concrete action. Ditto for COP 18 in Qatar in December.
* At least one nasty surprise emerging from current research. I hope it isn’t East Siberian seabed methane, but we’ll know more when the papers describing the 2011 Arctic research season are published.

And a very happy new year for all Hot Topic readers [Hey! that's us too - cheers Gareth]

BTW (while we’re in predictive mode), here’s NIWA’s outlook for summer:-

Temperatures in Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa, Nelson, Marlborough and Buller are forecast to be near average or above average, while rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the near normal range.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10769896

Happy new year!

A lovely philosphical and insightful piece of prose. Reminds me of the sign on my office door:

WARNING!
POLITICALLY INCORRECT ZONE
All personnel entering these premises will encounter a thing called freedom of speech.

I did receive one politically correct card, that wished me “Winter Greetings”. Oh well, at least we can laugh.