Don’t tolerate the nonsense
I’ve been reading about famine in East Africa – the Great Horn of Africa, after its well-proportioned resemblance to the rhino’s horn. The Horn (nowhere near Cape Horn, bottom of South America) includes names iconic for armed insurrection and starvation: Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Mogadishu, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
East Africa is a fascinating study in its own right. The region has been subject to irregular cycles of feast and famine for thousands of years, so it’s rich with a theme much used by global warmers.
At any sign of a starving child someone can be relied upon to blame the situation on “climate change” and therefore on we wicked, wasteful westerners, never mind that not every drought causes a famine (not by a long shot) and corrupt or weak African politicians play a much stronger role in disastrous famines than climate does.
Anyone describing climate and consequent food security these days finds it necessary to refer to “climate change” and hence venture on to the IPCC tightrope strung up for global warming believers everywhere. When that happens, they quickly wobble and fall off; one just has to wait a bit.
So it proved in this research into famines in the Horn of Africa.
I came across a piece on the World Resources Institute posted last August. Overall, it’s a useful article, balanced and informative. But it makes a few now-common mistakes as the authors fall off the IPCC highwire.
I should say that earlier this year the UN downgraded the “famine” to an “emergency” following the expected short rainy season. Though a few are still starving and aid is still being provided, the longer rainy season is expected soon and things could be more or less back to normal later this year.
The article said:
It is notoriously difficult to determine if any one extreme event is the result of climate change. Studies that can prove this causality often require significant amounts of historical rainfall and temperature data and sophisticated modelling techniques that are hard to come by in many developing countries, including many in east Africa.
Many climate change modelling exercises provide clear future trends for temperature in east Africa. They predict that the region will get hotter as greenhouse gases increase. Historical data from the region also clearly demonstrate an upward trend for temperatures … [Emphasis added.]
Of course it’s difficult! The entire climate system is chaotic and unpredictable, as the IPCC says. No event has been shown to be caused by climate change. But that’s hardly notorious – it’s simply impossible!
The article claims models make predictions, however readers will know that the much-quoted computer models do no predicting whatsoever for the IPCC – they’re only allowed to provide “projections”. Not that the MSM reminds us of that too often – they report model output as “predictions” or “forecasts” because those are more alarming.
The report makes the confident claim that “the region will get hotter as greenhouse gases increase.” For justification, they claim the AR4 says so.
The AR4 says no such thing, of course. The models are not tasked with deciding the effect of rising GHGs. That is too important to be left to unpredictable models. All our satellites and computers and balloons and laboratories have proved incapable, over 50 years and more, of measuring the temperature sensitivity of the climate to increased amounts of carbon dioxide.
If we can’t measure it, it means we don’t know what it is, so how can we accurately instruct computer models to calculate it? We can’t.
Instead, the models are told what CO2 will do, from a human understanding of it, which is insecure, unskilful and labours under an agenda. The effect of rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and the other minor greenhouse gases being hard-wired into them, the models can only “predict” that the region will get hotter as temperatures go up.
When the article says temperature data for East Africa demonstrate an upward trend, it’s correct – except for the region which showed a cooling trend. They just forgot to mention it. And in many areas, since 1950, night-time temperatures have been rising at the same time as daytime temperatures were falling. Can you tell whether the region will warm or cool in future?
Once more: let’s stop accepting this palpable nonsense that climate change is responsible for anything.
Climate change means global warming. Global warming has not happened for about 15 years, unless you take a micrometer to the thermometer. And if you have to do that just to detect warming, then it’s hardly dangerous, is it?
Oh – if it didn’t happen, then it didn’t cause anything! No droughts, no wildfires, no floods, no storms. No ice melt.