Warmth ≠ warmingRichard Treadgold | March 29, 2012
In my previous post I said that, since the temperature hasn’t gone up (much) in about 15 years, nothing has happened as a result – in short, global warming hasn’t caused anything, harmful or otherwise.
That short chain of reasoning seemed justified by the observed and documented lack of significant warming of the near-surface atmosphere around the globe during the last 15 years, and I thought the logic unassailable.
The above link shows the HadCRUT3 record, but you’ll see a very similar trajectory with the GISTEMP dataset, UAH, RSS or NCDC. All of these records show that, from about 1997, there’s been precious little warming or cooling and that the global monthly mean temperature anomaly has, in the last six months or less, steeply descended through exactly the same band through which it rose in 1997.
To repeat: because global warming hasn’t occurred for about 15 years, global warming hasn’t caused anything else to occur in that time. Very simple.
But Mr Renowden, at his Hot Topic, indicates that I’m wrong. However, he makes an argument that does not refute what I said and it needs to be laughed at. He also includes some personally abusive comments which I’ll ignore – although I cannot ignore his clever, arresting little headline, Prat watch, as it says a lot about one of us.
Anyway, he says:
No warming for 15 years? Tell that to the planet, Richard. Here’s what the World Meteorological Organisation says about the first decade of the 21st century:
[WMO:] …climate change accelerated in 2001-2010, which was the warmest decade ever recorded in all continents of the globe.
No warming for 15 years? After we’ve had the warmest decade ever recorded in all continents of the globe?
He’s claiming warming, but the word “warming” doesn’t appear in the passage he quotes. The WMO is claiming “accelerated” climate change, and they don’t mention warming. He quotes the WMO again:
[WMO:] The decade 2001-2010 was the warmest since records began in 1850, with global land and sea surface temperatures estimated at 0.46°C above the long-term average (1961-1990) of 14.0°C. Nine of these years were among the ten warmest on record. The warmest year on record was 2010, closely followed by 2005, with a mean temperature estimated at 0.53°C above the long-term average. It was the warmest decade ever recorded for global land surface, sea surface and for every continent.
No warming mentioned there, either. It might be warm, it might, indeed, be piping hot, but that does not mean any warming occurred. Is that hard to understand? Then he delivers the killer punch:
No warming for 15 years? Not to put too fine a point on it: balderdash, piffle, stuff and nonsense.
Now he hints that I’m wrong! But notice that he still doesn’t justify his claimed warming. This is nothing but arm-waving – he just asserts it’s been warming. Even though the temperature datasets reveal no warming occurred in that period, he sticks to his guns:
And because there has been warming, it can be linked to extreme events.
But we’re not silly, and the astute reader will share my view that warmth does not equal warming. The warmth can be ever so high yet warming need not take place.
What upsets me most of all is to see the formerly prestigious WMO making this claim, supporting the shallow thinkers like our local warmists with the wicked obfuscation that, because it’s been warm, there has necessarily, at the same time, been warming.
Well, nonsense, I say. Even balderdash.
I see the excellent Richard Cumming has coincidentally provided a handy reference to demolish Renowden’s reliance on the completely unalarming SREX report, which we also reviewed here in Pearls from the giant evil IPCC clam.
The amateur scientist and journalist and radio commentator and wine-maker and truffle hunter at Hot Topic ends with a rant against me (avoiding the climate science) based on a sort of psychiatric evaluation. This has become a popular tactic among climate deniers and warmists. It prevents them having to confront the nasty facts we point out, like: the temperature hasn’t gone up, guys, what do you say to that?
It’s a bit frustrating they don’t seem to notice their own denial. For Renowden to refute my observation about global temperatures he really cannot avoid presenting some evidence. In the meantime, we’ll keep observing the climate and telling everyone the truth about it.