Well, where’s your evidence, Renowden?Richard Treadgold | April 14, 2012
You’ve seen mine, now show me yours
On 29 March Hot Topic took exception to my factual assertion in relation to climate fraud that “Global warming has not happened for about 15 years, unless you take a micrometer to the thermometer. And if you have to do that just to detect warming, then it’s hardly dangerous, is it?” by thundering:
The certainty of Treadgold’s denial is only possible because he creates a carefully cultivated cocoon of ignorance around himself and around the true believers who worship at his blog. The world where the rest of us live is a much more uncomfortable place. We have to work with whatever reality throws at us. Retreating into a fantasy world where warming hasn’t happened for 15 years is a luxury only the deluded can afford.
Later that day I posted here:
since the temperature hasn’t gone up (much) in about 15 years, nothing has happened as a result – in short, global warming hasn’t caused anything, harmful or otherwise … This is nothing but arm-waving – he just asserts it’s been warming. Even though the temperature datasets reveal no warming occurred in that period, he sticks to his guns:
And because there has been warming, it can be linked to extreme events.
… But we’re not silly, and the astute reader will share my view that warmth does not equal warming. The warmth can be ever so high yet warming need not take place.
My conclusion was “It’s a bit frustrating they don’t seem to notice their own denial. For Renowden to refute my observation about global temperatures he really cannot avoid presenting some evidence.” Which he hasn’t done.
Climate change has accelerated – oooh!
I also showed that the World Meteorological Organisation, which Renowden cited in support, claimed only that the decade 2001 to 2010 was the warmest on record. It specifically avoided saying there had been warming. The nearest it came to that was to say, twice, that “climate change” (whatever that is) had “accelerated” (whatever that means).
But, decisively, they refused to say the globe had warmed. For Renowden to call on such studied obscurantism to corroborate his frail fiction that the world has warmed is an exquisitely fantastic denial which no doubt inspires his instinct to thus accuse me.
Renowden postulates I’ve woven a cocoon of ignorance but once again he overlooks the far more likely possibility that “the certainty of my denial” comes from the fact that the globe has not warmed — but that’s a possibility he actively ignores.
Unlike both Renowden and the WMO, I provide evidence of my assertion: a link to a graph from the HadCRUT3 global temperature dataset, shown above.
The status of “highest temperature” given to the first decade of the millenium was achieved solely by virtue of a few hundredths of a degree. That’s an amount no human can detect without instruments. You would have known nothing about it if the warmists hadn’t screeched in your face. It was a trace, a mere bagatelle: a piddle, a frivol, a triviality.
So before this thermal summit was attained there was not the mighty warming we’ve come to expect from the crashing, clamouring computer predictions filling our newspapers and tv screens over twenty years. It was actually nothing. Don’t pretend to me that whatever warming occurred to achieve this trace of a record, this frivol of a soaring temperature, was anything more than completely unremarkable, barely detectable. And when the temperature rises by a hair’s breadth it does not presage the end of the world in anyone’s almanac.
Nor, just by the way, does it say we caused it.
In one paragraph Renowden, clearly in the spirit of scientific inquiry, uses the words “denial”, “cultivated cocoon of ignorance”, “fantasy world” and “deluded” in referring to me. He becomes desperately offensive, perhaps because he cannot resort to facts which don’t exist. One might feel sorry for him, except there is really no excuse for avoiding the topic (hot or not) and going waspishly for the man. I’ll not retaliate in kind but, like the All Blacks, let my game do the talking.
Solve the mystery of mothers and babies
If Gareth still thinks there has been warming over the last decade and a half, he must prove it — refute this HadCRUT3 record of global temperature and show how it’s defective. He must produce evidence of significant warming, enough to concern us — well beyond natural variation — for otherwise we’re arguing over trifles. But (sigh) he hasn’t done so yet and there is no reason to think he ever will.
He refers to this factual graph of temperature as a fantasy, an incredible claim, without a shred of proof. But unless he faces this, nobody can believe his claims that the world is being ruined, or the same claims echoing from NIWA, and the so-called “Science” Media Centre, and the so-called Ministry for the Environment.
For why should anyone believe this tragic fantasy without reason? Give us a reason or stop taking our money and wasting our time. Then close down the ETS and put all those unnecessary bureaucrats to some real work, like solving the mystery of why mothers can’t afford to stay home to care for their new babies, which is what they want to do, and I’m glad the government won’t agree to pay for it, but it does need to respond because it’s an important problem.
Now that would be useful.
Brief UPDATE – Tue 17 Apr 2012
Renowden points out my error in claiming the graph above is of data “measured by satellite, not the unreliable hand of man” — though it’s clearly labelled “HadCRUT3″. I’m sorry about the mistake. I intended to use the UAH graph, wrote the caption, realised HadCRUT3 would do just as well, and forgot to alter the caption.
He then answers the HadCRUT3 data displayed here which conclusively proves the lack of substantial global warming over 15 years. But he leaves out all the data, presenting only a 10-year moving average from four datasets which seem to end about 2007. Then he leaves out all information about the last five years – just when the temperature plunges. One feels oddly grateful that he’s mentioned anything. It’s a gigantic Clayton’s rebuttal.
I’ll say more about this derisively-titled Cuckoo Cocoon (Prat Watch 5.5) later. There’s a lot to look up – he’s certainly been busy.