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Taking the heat out of global warming

For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.

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Ross Ice Shelf melt and other cool fables

Richard Treadgold | May 23, 2012
Ross Ice Shelf

The heroic Ross Ice Shelf. The tiny figures on top are people, 60 metres (200 feet) above the waves. Beneath the water, the ice cliff continues a further 1000 feet straight down. You might travel south from here for over 600 km before reaching land; you might go straight across the great shelf for over 800 km. At 500,000 km2 it’s nearly twice the area of NZ. You won’t melt this with the smoke from your puny fires. This sucker’s not going anywhere in a hurry. Oh, and when it calves those bergs the size of Manhattan, it’s not from melting — they snap off.

Rob Fenwick, in Accelerating melt reason to worry (The Press, 21 May 2012), launches into a worry-fest about all the fabulous calamities said to be on the way with “continued” man-made global warming.

The astute reader will know that the word “fabulous” is derived from “fable”. It means unreal or imagined more than it means magnificent. I chose that word because all the disasters Mr Fenwick briefly catalogues are fantastic (cf. “fantasy”). But I should begin at the beginning of his niggle-gala. He says:

When the world’s polar scientists gathered in Montreal last month – all 3000 of them – it seemed like a case of preaching to the choir.

After 20 years of intense study of the effects of changing climate conditions at the poles, there is certainly no longer any debate over what is going on. Read more… »

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models v. reality
Latest climate models v. reality

As the models continue to leave actual temperature readings in their dust, sizeable warming halted about 1995 — although it might resume at any time. It must hasten to have any hope of catching up with the predictions.

If you claim warming continues, we want evidence of continued warming — eminently reasonable. Making us wait for 17 years for that evidence invites us to doubt you.

Claiming that warming hasn't stopped is the same as claiming it has — and both are ridiculous, for nobody knows the future. The best you can do is describe the past.

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