Climate warrior’s only sword is science

Steve McIntyre

New pinnacle for climate sceptics

Steve McIntyre reaches new heights in his resolute scrutiny of climate science and raises the bar for fellow sceptics. For the lead author of a new paper has acknowledged McIntyre’s work in identifying an error so serious it may alter the paper’s results and has certainly forced a delay in its publication.

But note that although McIntyre “also” identified “this data processing issue”, he wasn’t first – the team beat him to it.

Anthony at WUWT describes the story and Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit is the story. Here’s the letter to Steve from the paper’s senior author, David Karoly.

Dear Stephen,

I am contacting you on behalf of all the authors of the Gergis et al (2012) study ‘Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium.’

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, which may affect the results. While the paper states that “both proxy climate and instrumental data were linearly detrended over the 1921–1990 period”, we discovered on Tuesday 5 June that the records used in the final analysis were not detrended for proxy selection, making this statement incorrect. Although this is an unfortunate data processing issue, it is likely to have implications for the results reported in the study. The journal has been contacted and the publication of the study has been put on hold.

This is a normal part of science. The testing of scientific studies through independent analysis of data and methods strengthens the conclusions. In this study, an issue has been identified and the results are being re-checked.

We would be grateful if you would post the notice below on your ClimateAudit web site.

We would like to thank you and the participants at the ClimateAudit blog for your scrutiny of our study, which also identified this data processing issue.

Thanks,
David Karoly.

Print publication of scientific study put on hold

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium” by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

We are currently reviewing the data and results.

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Andy
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Andy

It is of interest to NZers in that most of the tree proxies seem to come from this country, as you can see from the map on CA
http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/06/gergis-significance/

Armand MacMurray
Guest
Armand MacMurray

I’ll just note that it was Jean S on the ClimateAudit blog who first reported the issue, which was then confirmed by Nick S., Steve McIntyre, and others.

Richard Treadgold
Guest

Quite right, Armand, thanks. So raising the bar was actually a team effort, and that’s not a bad thing.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Also worthy of note is Nick Stokes input ( as mentioned by Armand above ) who is with CSIRO and not exactly noted for being a sceptic

Andy
Guest
Andy

I wonder if there is any use made of the NZ instrumental record, since most of the tree proxies are from here.

I have no idea whether this is relevant or not

Andy
Guest
Andy

More intrigue, via commenter at Bishop Hill

“Most of the tree proxies are from NZ where there is a pending court case against NIWA.

It’s more ironic than that. As I’ve noted elsewhere the recent NIWA revision has changed the Hokitika instrument record that was used by Cook to develop the Oroko proxy t(one of only two covering the MWP in Gergis). NIWA added that the per-1900 series was too unreliable to include in the series, but these measurements had been used by Cook to validate their proxy model.

Jun 9, 2012 at 9:27 PM | HAS

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

The error escaped:- #1 Self checking by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly (that’s 5). #2 Peer-review (who were they and how many?). But didn’t escape just ONE out-of-the-loop interested bystander with a few skills:- Jean S Posted Jun 5, 2012 at 4:42 PM “…what am I doing wrong here? I tried to check the screening correlations of Gergis et al, and I’m getting such low values for a few proxies that there is no way that those can pass any test” http://climateaudit.org/2012/05/31/myles-allen-calls-for-name-and-shame/#comment-336480 So much for peer-review. If the same sloppiness was the norm in say structure design and engineering, major projects would never come together e.g. the channel tunnelers would still be digging but side-by-side and heading away from each other. My early work years were as a drafty on civil and structural projects. At that time (many changes since then) there were rigourous checking systems and most works proceeded as planned but with the inevitable minor hitches. But I did witness some major foul-ups. Best I can think of was a railway (NIMT) overbridge at Taupiri, north of Hamilton. The NIMT was closed amid NZ Rail… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Deafening silence on this at Hot Topic – except for one andyS:-

AndyS June 10, 2012 at 8:06 am

[…]

Is there something in the warmest mindset that makes you completely unable to accept anything from the skeptics at all?

Perhaps we could post David Karolys letter to Steve McIntyre here after the Gergis paper was withdrawn. I note that one has been very quiet here.

http://hot-topic.co.nz/communicating-science-across-cultural-divides/#comment-32274

Andy
Guest
Andy

Yes I am getting a bit sick of the endless abuse. They have a thread about “crossing the divide” and all they want to do is prattle on about their solar panels, hybrid cars and how few flights they take a year.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

300,000 dollars and three years to produce a paper that lasted three weeks: Gergis

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/300000-dollars-and-three-years-to-produce-a-paper-that-lasted-three-weeks-gergis/

And as C3 Headlines puts it:-

Smackdown of Bimbo Climate Scientist Joelle Gergis: Her Ballyhooed Southern Hemisphere ‘Hockey Stick’ Study Flawed

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/06/smackdown-of-bimbo-climate-scientist-joelle-gergis-her-ballyhooed-southern-hemisphere-hockey-stick-s.html

Andy
Guest
Andy

Read this

http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/hokitika.an.unworkable.example.pdf

Then imagine using the Hokitika data to validate the proxies.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From Joelle Gergis’ deleted blog:-

The project, funded by the Australian Research Council’s Linkage scheme, is worth a total of $950K and will run from mid-2009 to mid-2012.

[Is it REALLY “worth” that much?]

It gives me a job for three years and money to bring a PhD student, research assistant and part time project manager on board.

[Will the ARCL get a refund?]

More importantly, it will go a long way in strengthening the much needed ties between the sciences and humanities scrambling to understand climate change.

[Bet they’re “scrambling to understand” now. Humanities just want a piece of the action, well they got it]

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:I9rs3uU-S5QJ:joellegergis.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/australian-climate-history-project-now-funded/+http://joellegergis.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/australian-climate-history-project-now-funded/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au&client=firefox-a

She should have left the blog up – would have gone ballistic.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

From the JN link:-

When Steve McIntyre asked for the full data, she [Gergis] refused. […] Apparently she didn’t appreciate his expertise with statistics and told him to get the data himself from the original authors, and added ” This is commonly referred to as ‘research’. We will not be entertaining any further correspondence on the matter. “

Arrogance and petulance then, what now?

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Not even correlated with the opposite coast.

7. There are no studies to indicate that New Zealand climate is regionally coherent. Both
Salinger and NIWA recognise that Christchurch is poorly correlated with the West
Coast.

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

I frequently lurk at McIntyre’s blog, Climate Audit, and and have been following this affair avidly and regard it as a brilliant example of the work done by the group of incredibly astute and forensically-inclined individuals who congregate there, who must give authors of dodgy climate science papers nightmares. Cartons by English cartoonist Josh, who is as astute and as cutting with his pencil as Daumier ever was, usually follow and must make life particularly galling for those who are unmasked as charlatans.
I am also addicted to the Bishop Hill blog, run by the author of the excellent and meticulously-researched ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion’, which hit the market at about the time of Climategate 1 and lays bare the appalling ‘science’ with which Mann created his notorious hockey Stick.
I am unsurprised that Renowden’s camp followers are silent, as they must be now almost hors de combat, if you will pardon the awful pun, at the sudden fall from grace of the Gergis et al paper.

Andy
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Andy

There also seems to be no mention of this at Skeptical Science

Andy
Guest
Andy

Some more background to NZ tree rings here

http://www.niwa.co.nz/publications/wa/vol16-no1-march-2008/running-rings-around-climate-change

Note the familiar names

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Anyone else look askance at this? 44 The average reconstructed temperature anomaly in Australasia during A.D. 1238–1267, the warmest 30-year pre-instrumental period, is 0.09°C (±0.19°C) below 1961–1990 levels. Following peak pre-industrial warmth, a cooling trend culminates in a temperature anomaly of 0.44°C (±0.18°C) below 1961–1990 levels between A.D. 1830–1859 http://www.smc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/1000-years-of-climate-data-%E2%80%93-manuscript_and_Supplementary_April_2012_final1.pdf Can’t wait to see the revision if it ever emerges given that the project initially had a water management focus for a South-east Australia in a drought crisis:- National benefit: South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia’s leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia’s climate history. Greatly extended record of annual rainfall and temperature variability will allow better planning for water storage and use, and improved testing of climate model simulations. Improving our understanding of the historical impacts of climate extremes on society will assist with planning for life in a hotter and drier future. Partner organisations: 5. Melbourne Water This entry was posted on June 20, 2009 http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:I9rs3uU-S5QJ:joellegergis.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/australian-climate-history-project-now-funded/+http://joellegergis.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/australian-climate-history-project-now-funded/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au&client=firefox-a In 2009… Read more »

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

I gave up holding my breath while I waited for the MSM to take note of the fallout from Jean S’s initial plea on Climate Audit; some journalists MUST at least flick through the blogosphere.
At least Karoly’s heads-up to SM was polite, even if he did claim that his team had already spotted the cock-up they had made. It’s interesting that the antipodean warmista blogs have switched from ‘crow mode’ to absolute silence now this hugely expensive and fatuous piece of pseudo-research has been ‘withdrawn’ while the figures are reworked. The funniest piece from this entire comedy is that Gergis (who seems to have slid down the memory hole) et al seem to have no idea of what constitutes confirmation bias and circular reasoning

Andy
Guest
Andy

The other issue with MSM coverage of the original “story” was that the obvious question to ask is “how much warmer are we today that 1000 years ago” (with this hockey stick in place), and the answer is 0.09 degrees C link at Jo Nova

So all things said, this is pretty much a non-story from the global warming perspective

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

SMH has caught up with it and Karoly is spinning it their way (inevitably):- Climate warming study put on hold Adam Morton June 12, 2012 A WIDELY reported study that found the past half-century in Australasia was very likely the warmest in a millennium has been ”put on hold” after a mistake was found in the paper. Led by scientists from the University of Melbourne, the study involved analysis of palaeoclimatic data from tree rings, coral and ice cores to give what was described as the most complete climate record of the region over the past 1000 years. It was peer-reviewed and published online by the Journal of Climate in May, but was removed from the website last week at the authors’ request after the discovery of a ”data processing issue” that could affect the results. Study co-author and climate science professor David Karoly said one of the five authors found the method of analysis outlined in the paper differed to that actually used. The Climate Audit blog – run by Canadian Steve McIntyre, who has challenged the validity of palaeoclimatic temperature reconstructions – claimed credit for finding the issue with the paper.… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Peer review rarely checks the actual workings of the underlying paper. I think this is one of the major failings of academia – once you are a PhD or Postdoc,, you are left to your own devices and peer review for a journal seems to be a rubber stamping exercise to determine whether the paper is of interest and sufficient superficial quality to pass into the journal

Phil Jones famously stated in the climategate parliamentary inquiry that no one ever checked his workings because no one ever asked to do so.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

I find that astounding coming from a construction engineering background. The veracity of the paper then, really is only subject to subsequent blog review (by sceptics essentially) in this era, or to those that can actually allocate time, resources, energy etc to make a formal published comment and get it past the gatekeepers. Warmists cannot now cite “peer-review” as some sort of authority until a paper passes the peer-review of internet-based cooperative scrutiny. A new paradigm. Willis Eschenbach commented on peer-review at WUWT:- “…..let me digress for a moment to say that I think there are two simple changes in the reviewing process that would help it immensely. 1. Double blind reviewing. Right now, reviewing is just single blind, with the reviewer knowing the identity of the author but not the other way around. This is a huge, huge violation of the scientific norms, and it leads and has led to problems. A recent proposal to use double-blind reviewing in the awarding of grants by the National Science Foundation makes for interesting reading … http://www.nsf.gov/nsb/publications/2011/meritreviewcriteria.pdf This would put the focus back onto the ideas rather than the author. 2. Publish the reviews and… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy
Andy
Guest
Andy

Comment from Jean S on Revkins page Andrew, thank you for covering this story. However, I think you are not really addressing the main issues here. This was not exactly the first time a major flaw was found by “outsiders” in these high profile climate science papers. In fact, it was not even the first one I personally uncovered (e.g., here and here). Why are so many errors found in these papers? Why didn’t the co-authors catch this particular error? Why didn’t the peer reviewers notice it? The error was not exactly a flaw requiring years of expertise to be spotted, but something even a high school student could do. It boils down to checking the very basic, and first, premise in the paper. Although the authors refused to share data and code, this step was still possible to check using data that was published. Most of the paper remains almost impossible to be replicated. Unfortunately, and unnecessarily, this incident is bound to repeat itself unless certain climate scientists start openly sharing their data and code, climate journals start requiring those as an essential part of their review process, and last, but not… Read more »

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

For many years, I have been interested in the historical timing and scope of the migratory waves that apparently began in the region of Southern China and culminated in the settling of New Zealand by Polynesians and in the linkages between the Pacific coast of South America and this country as evidenced by the locations of various sub-species of Kumara, for instance. Many people point to the most basic element required for repeat extended sea voyages reliant on Stone-age technology – some hundreds of years of fair weather.
The Medieval Warm Period, so troublesome to some climate scientists and so propitious for Viking voyages of exploration in the Northern hemisphere, would seem to have been the world-wide fair-weather phenomenon that allowed such voyages to be satisfactorily concluded.
And how could the MSM be so incredibly incurious?
I am fascinated that Gergis et al could discard accurate climate data from the Law Dome series in favour of dodgy treemometry extracted from logs dragged from a Kiwi swamp.

Andy
Guest
Andy

It’s very plausible Alexander, but it’s not PC. Therefore the media and the scientists ignore what is potentially the most fascinating periods of pre-European history in NZ and potentially one of the greatest voyages ever undertaken.

Alexander K
Guest
Alexander K

Thanks Andy.
I really became interested in this after I became aware that the the coming of the Maori in the Great Fleet was a myth promulgated by nineteenth-century academics who considered the Maori a noble but doomed stone-age savage, ably assisted by approved artists of the day such as Goldie and Steele with their large painting ‘The coming of the Maori’, which was largely a recreation of an earlier European painting; Goldie and Steele’s epic painting was so widely copied and publicised that it became embedded in the public consciousness as historical fact.
Perhaps our MSM is full of lazy gossip-merchants focussed on press releases and who have no idea of what being an investigative journalist is, or for that mater, any sort of journalist.

Andy
Guest
Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Steve M has a new post:-

An Unpublished Law Dome Series

On its face, Law Dome, which was screened out by Gergis and Karoly, is an extraordinarily important Holocene site as it is, to my knowledge, the highest-accumulation Holocene site yet known, with accumulation almost 10 times greater than the canonical Vostok site.

On a personal level, I understand that people can’t do everything in the world. But nonetheless, the deep Law Dome hole was drilled between 1987 and 1992. It provides the highest resolution ice core for the two-millennium period. And remains unpublished. Amazing.

http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/12/an-unpublished-law-dome-series/

See the postscript highlighted at Climate Depot

Postscript: Here is a reminder of what the 2003 O18 version looked like. An annual version for two millennia was provided to Gergis (who screened it out.)

Looking at the graph, I think it is less amazing, more crystal clear, why it hasn’t been published and was screened out.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Or as Steve M puts it:-

A Climategate email shows that Phil Jones asked about the omission of the Law Dome series from the IPCC illustration in the AR4 First Draft. I asked the same question about the AR4 Second Draft. They realized that the Law Dome graphic had an elevated medieval period and thus, including it in the graphic would – to borrow a phrase from the preparation of AR3 – would “dilute the message” and perhaps provide “fodder to skeptics”.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Comment from Steve M

Let me re-iterate a standing warning to readers not to assume that a given proxy is “RIGHT” because they like the result. Readers are typically quick to spot confounding factors in series with big sticks, as I am myself. But it’s not just Stick series that have confounding factors.

Nevertheless, the exclusion of Law Dome is somewhat odd

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

It comes back to the screening process of Gergis et al (other than the wider AR context) which S.M. highlights in his “More on screening” post and quotes Gergis:- Only records that were significantly (p.&.lt.0.05) correlated with the detrended instrumental target over the 1921–1990 period were selected for analysis. S.M. comments:- This is hardly ideal statistical practice, but it avoids the most grotesque form of the error. However, as it turned out, they didn’t implement this procedure, instead falling back into the common (but erroneous) Screening Fallacy. The “Screening Fallacy” being (as S.M. describes):- Screening and Hockey Sticks Both I and other bloggers (see links surveyed here) have observed that the common “community” practice of screening proxies for the “most temperature sensitive” or equivalent imparts a bias towards Hockey Sticks. This bias has commonly demonstrated by producing a Stick from red noise. In the terminology of the above articles, screening a data set according to temperature correlations and then using the subset for temperature reconstruction quite clearly qualifies as Kriegeskorte “double dipping” – the use of the same data set for selection and selective analysis. Proxies are screened depending on correlation to temperature… Read more »

Andy
Guest
Andy

Selecting records that correlate with the “global warming signal” is one thing. When that “signal” consists of records like Hokitika that are based on rather dubious statistical techniques themselves, we have another layer of obfuscation to deal with.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Ah yes, the late 20th century “clear signal”. I’m curious as to whether the rest of the CSIRO Mk3L model simulations outputs for the 21st century (2000 – 2012) as for Gergis Figure S4.2. page 66 Forced (blue) and unforced (red) simulations of Australasian mean SONDJF temperature for the period AD 1001-2000 is available at CSIRO or somewhere. Gergis cites Phipps et al. (2011) on line 1220 and in the references:- 975 Phipps, S. J., L. D. Rotstayn, H. B. Gordon, J. L. Roberts, A. C. Hirst and W. Budd, 2011: The 976 CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation. 977 Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 483-509. But that’s seems to be just background without actually looking at the paper. In the body of the paper:- 480 3.5. Climate model comparison 481 From the start of industrialisation around 1850, the influence of solar and volcanic forcing on 482 global climate begins to be overwhelmed by the rapid increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas 483 concentrations (Hegerl et al., 2007a; Hegerl et al., 2007b; Jansen et al., 2007). Figure 6 shows 484 reconstructed Australasian SONDJF temperatures and the ensemble mean… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

MacFarling–Meure et al., 2006 cited in Gergis below just measures GHG concentrations in the ice – no simulations:-

Three transient simulations are considered here which incorporate the
311 effects of changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gases (MacFarling–Meure et al., 2006),

Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to
2000 years BP, MacFarling–Meure et al., 2006

https://webfiles.uci.edu/setrumbo/public/Methane_papers/Macfarling%20Meure_Geophys.%20Res.%20Lett._2006.pdf

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

On the page 1 abstract of the Reference Paper at the Phipps web page ‘The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation’, Phipps et al 2011:- Both the magnitude and the spatial pattern of the simulated 20th century warming are consistent with observations. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of the relative warmth associated with the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. Didn’t see that qualification in Gergis et al. For 21st century simulations the place to start looking would be The Garnaut Climate Change Review 2008:- http://www.garnautreview.org.au/index.htm Chapter 5: Projecting Australian climate change Only found projections starting at 2030. http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter5.pdf 5.3.1 Temperature Annual average temperatures in Australia are expected to rise in parallel with rises in global average temperature. Significant regional variation, however, is projected across Australia. In general, the north-west is expected to warm more quickly than the rest of the country. By 2030, annual average temperature over Australia will be around 1ºC above 1990 levels (CSIRO & BoM 2007).4 CSIRO & BoM 2007, Climate Change in Australia: Technical report 2007, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/ Is there an inconsistency between observed and modelled patterns of warming in the lower atmosphere? 2.… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Best I can find for 21st century is this C3 Headlines blog post:- *********************************************************************** Is Global Warming Happening? IPCC Climate Models Predicted Huge Warming But Reality Happened Instead http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/04/is-global-warming-happening-ipcc-climate-models.html The adjacent chart [See plot http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0168e987ee9d970c-400wi%5D documents the facts on the ground, so-to-speak, and easily answers the question: Is global warming happening? The simple answer from the empirical observations is ‘No.’ The IPCC climate models, using the business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario A1F1 predicted a best estimate of global temperature increase of +4.0 degrees by year 2100. That prediction was based on year 2000 being the starting point. Thus, per the IPCC model(s), by February 2012 the global temperatures should have already increased to 14.75 degrees C (pink dotted line) based on a 12-month moving average. Instead, since 2000, the HadCRUT global temperature has only slightly increased (red dotted line). ******************************************************************************************************** I suspect that the trajectory of the CO2 line (black) that intersects the 2012 model projection (pink dotted line) is similar to the trajectory of Gergis et al Figure S4.2. page 66 Forced (blue) simulations. There are the other comparisons recently covered on this blog but this C3 plot probably explains as good as… Read more »

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Here we go:- Panel and Multivariate Methods for Tests of Trend Equivalence in Climate Data Series Ross McKitrick, Stephen McIntyre and Chad Herman. 2010 http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mmh_asl2010.pdf Abstract We explain panel and multivariate regressions for comparing trends in climate data sets. They impose minimal restrictions on the covariance matrix and can embed multiple linear comparisons, which is a convenience in applied work. We present applications comparing post-1979 modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical lower- and midtroposphere. Results are sensitive to the sample length. In data spanning 1979 to 1999, observed trends are not significantly different from zero or from model projections. In data spanning 1979 to 2009 the observed trends are significant in some cases but tend to differ significantly from modeled trends. 3 Empirical application 3.1 Data We used the same archive of climate model simulations as Santer et al. (2008) [This paper effectively refutes Santer08]. The available group now includes 57 runs from 23 models. Each source provides data for both the lower troposphere (LT) and mid-troposphere (MT). Each model uses prescribed forcing inputs up to the end of the 20th century climate experiment (20C3M, see Santer et al. 2005). Projections… Read more »

Anthropogenic Global Cooling
Guest
Anthropogenic Global Cooling

A nice lecture from Professor Salby at the Sydney Institute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrI03ts–9I&feature=youtu.be

ash casey
Guest
ash casey

rat cornered springs to mind

Andy
Guest
Andy

Anthony Watts now reports that Gergis et al has been permanently withdrawn

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/gergis-et-al-hockey-stick-paper-withdrawn-finally/

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

I reckon this is just how science is meant to work, Mr. Andy; thousands of papers refining AGW are published and checked every year, and mistakes are acknowledged and fixed.

I don’t see any science papers that disprove AGW though, apart from rubbish from the likes of Carter and de Freitas that no-one takes seriously ‘cos they’ve rigged their “evidence”, just like in that recent Court case you guys are always grizzling on about.

Man, what a dog’s breakfast THAT was – it’s just as bloody well that, as a taxpayer, I’ll be getting my money back…

Andy
Guest
Andy

I reckon this is just how science is meant to work, Mr. Andy; thousands of papers refining AGW are published and checked every year, and mistakes are acknowledged and fixed.

So science works by independent unpaid bloggers finding mistakes in papers?

What exactly is your objection to the court case then, since there appear to be some parallels to be drawn?

Andy
Guest
Andy

it’s just as bloody well that, as a taxpayer, I’ll be getting my money back…

Do you work for NIWA?

Bob D
Guest
Bob D

So science works by independent unpaid bloggers finding mistakes in papers?

🙂

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

No, mate, they work for me. Which part of “public servant” do you not understand?

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

Looks like McIntyre actually knows his stuff, unlike whatever clowns were advising NZCSET.
Bet they’re none too popular now, eh?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Which part of “public servant” do you not understand?

The latter word

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

Too deep for me, mate. Don’t they let you have a dictionary?

Bob D
Guest
Bob D

Too deep for me, mate.

No surprises there.

Bob D
Guest
Bob D

Looks like McIntyre actually knows his stuff

Quite correct, so I take it you accept his debunking of Mann’s hockey stick graph in MBH98 and MBH99? Better run over to Hot Topic and let all your mates know you’ve joined the dark side.

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

Nah, not usually, but look at it this way – if some primitive tribe somewhere has a plant that helps cure something, you can bet that doctors are going look at to using it as part of medicine.

If, however, some tribe believes that illness is caused by not sacrificing enough chickens to the ghosts of the dead, the doctors won’t have a bar of it.

There sure seem to be a lot of headless chooks on this site!

Brandoch Daha
Guest
Brandoch Daha

Hot Topic? Is that one of those sites with sheilas getting their gear off?

Andy
Guest
Andy

I think it was a statistician called Jean Sibellus (sp?) who picked up the issue with Gergis et al. He described this as a basic error, not some deep convoluted issue
(basically, they were pre-screening data to give weight to hockey sticks)

The issue should have at least been picked up by the various authors who put their name to the paper, long before peer-review.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

JN Too:-

Gergis hockey stick withdrawn. This is what 95% certainty looks like in climate science.

“Thanks to help from the Australian Research Council it only took 300,000 dollars and three years to produce a paper that lasted all of three weeks. But it scored the scary headlines!”

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/gergis-hockey-stick-withdrawn-this-is-what-95-certainty-looks-like-in-climate-science/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JoNova+%28JoNova%29

Andy
Guest
Andy

If I were an Australian taxpayer, I’d be demanding my money back.

🙂

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”…thousands of papers refining AGW are published…”

Rubbish.

How it possible to “refine” a hypothesis that has NEVER been documented?

They just make it up as they go along, ACO2 explains everything – hot weather, cold weather, life, the universe, everything.

Brandoch Daha
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Brandoch Daha

Yeah, and if I was an Auckland Uni geography student, I’d sure be demanding MY money back!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10738739

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”if I was an Auckland Uni geography student”

If only.

Andy
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Andy

Yeah, and if I was an Auckland Uni geography student,

Brandoch, technically, you should say

if I were an Auckland Uni geography student

which is known as the subjunctive mood

Bob D
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Bob D

So let’s get this right. Professor Glenn McGregor says:

Global warming is happening and will continue to happen and it is driven by human activities so the recent warming is not part of a natural cycle.”

Yet we know there’s been no global warming over the past 16 years. So what “recent warming” is the good Professor referring to? The pre-1997 warming? But that’s hardly recent, and why has this warming stopped for the past 16 years?

I agree that the Auckland Uni geography students should be demanding their money back, but it’s the 101 students that Prof McGregor teaches who should be doing the demanding, based on the solid scientific evidence.

Simon
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Simon

Here’s another Professor’s opinion
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=239
I still can’t understand how anyone can look at the HadCRUT4 time series and honestly say “It’s not warming”.

Andy
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Andy

I still can’t understand how anyone can look at the HadCRUT4 time series and honestly say “It’s not warming”.

Take the most recent 15 years of data. Draw a linear regression over that time. Note error bars in case Ken or someone gets upset

Can we talk about something else now?

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”Note error bars in case Ken or someone gets upset”

Had a chuckle at the GWPF article re Met Office/HadCRUT4 – that read like a Ken Perrott lecture.

Ken
Guest

Amazing, Andy, even you seem to have learned something from my criticism of past attempts by characters here making claims which ignore the statistics. Very gratifying for me (especially as you and the others claimed this wasn’t important at the time).

Now we just have to get through to you the complexity of climate change. The number of both natural and anthropogenic factors involved. That we cannot understand what we are measuring without taking all those factors into account. And especially we should not substitute wishful thinking or ideological prejudice for the facts.

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

I see Doc Ricky Rood (Simon’s link) is pushing Nuccitelli et al 2012 too.

These guys will be feeling a bit crestfallen when they eventually discover that although there may be heat accumulation in the ocean, the anthropogenic signal is absent.

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”…even you seem to have learned something from my criticism” Even the UK GWPF too Ken – word gets around:- —————————————————————– The Met Office says that the world has warmed by 0.03 deg C per decade since 1997 based on their calculation of the gradient in the Hadcrut4 dataset. But what the Met Office doesn’t say is that this is statistically insignificant. The gradient of the trendline in Hadcrut4 is very sensitive to the start and end dates used as temperatures vary significantly month-to-month, so the Met Office is being misleading in quoting trendlines for a particular start and end date without taking into account how the scatter of the data, the errors in the temperature measurements, and short-term changes affect the statistical confidence in the resulting trendline. Trendlines from 1997 to August 2012 vary between 0.04 to 0.02 deg C per decade with an associated error of 0.04 deg C per decade. This has to be considered along with the error in annual global temperature measurements of 0.1 deg C. Hence there is no case to be made for a statistically significant increase in global temperatures as given in the Hadcrut4 dataset… Read more »

Nick
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Nick

Hi Bob D,
Richard C points out there is a strong warming signal in the oceans.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375960112010389

Full text here http://www.skepticalscience.com/docs/Comment_on_DK12.pdf

So while we may argue over attribution, your claim that “we know there’s been no global warming over the past 16 years” is incorrect.

Bob D
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Bob D

Nick, DK12 is a journal paper, the other is simply a Comment, and doesn’t have the same standing. I have downloaded the ARGO dataset and have been looking carefully at the data. It is true that the top 700m of ocean has seen no heating. Now the Comment authors have claimed that the layer 700-2000m HAS in fact warmed, but they don’t dispute that the top 700m hasn’t. The warming below 700m is very slight, and in fact contradicts Hansen (2005), as I pointed out before. The Comment authors want to look at data outside ARGO, but ARGO is the only accurate dataset we have, and starts in 2003. Looking at pre-2003 data is pointless (see Hansen 1997). Also, they claim that DK12 ignored land and aerosol/volcano effects, but these are minor in comparison (Hansen 1997a, 2005). The big question is: since AGW predicts that greenhouse warming affects only the top few metres of ocean, how do they suggest the ocean depths below 700m have warmed due to GHGs while the top layers have cooled? No mechanism is advanced for explaining why the top layers are cooling while the depths are warming.

Bob D
Guest
Bob D

I must say it’s amusing to watch all the warmists scrambling desperately to try to find some warming. After all, they have been going on for so long about how “it’s worse than we thought”, and “we have only a few years to act”. Now they’re reduced to looking in the deepest part of the ocean, even though finding heat down there doesn’t help their argument at all.

Where, oh where is all that heat?

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/candid-comments-from-global-warming-climate-scientists/

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

>”Richard C points out there is a strong warming signal in the oceans” I did? Where? The ocean is several layers of heat sinks – which layer is exhibiting “strong” warming? 0 – 700m (where any atmospheric non-solar forcing – if that were possible – would show) isn’t exhibiting any ARGO-era warming of note let alone strong warming. Once you get down past the planetary boundary layer (pbl) or mixed layer depth (hmix, varies 10 – 1000+m) , the time scales of heat influx become indeterminable because horizontal heat transports are operating and therefore it is impossible to determine what heat accumulated when in the 700 – 2000m layer. Also, the minor ARGO-era 0 – 2000m warming is not global-wide but confined to the northern Atlantic and strong enough to skew the global metric. Once you get down past 2000m, there’s time scales of centuries and any warming is entirely consistent with solar activity and long-term heat transports. To include that depth in anthro-centric attribution studies (as has been suggested) is getting very desperate. What Nuccitelli et al (and also Douglass and Knox) ignore is that O-GCM modelers don’t use 700m or 2000m… Read more »

Andy
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Andy

>”Richard C points out there is a strong warming signal in the oceans”

I did? Where?

These chaps have an uncanny ability to put words in our mouths. Ken claims that I said that error bars were not important. I can’t remember ever claiming any such thing

Oh well..

Brandoch Daha
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Brandoch Daha

You know, you guys are so quick to throw straw men around, you should come down to Kaponga and give us a hand with the hay baling this Xmas!

The way it looks to me and the missus, your minds are made up already so, when some real science comes along that you don’t understand or like, you just play a little game together of knowing more you really do, and build on each other’s ignorance until you can safely ignore the scary facts.

My friend Wayne Kerr calls this a “circle jerk”, but I was never in the Boy Scouts, so don’t really know what he’s getting at.

Anyway, I was up at sparrowfart this morning with the cows, so it’s time for bed – with a bit of luck, the missus will be in a subjunctive mood…

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

Bob, have you seen Bob Tisdale’s Oct 13 post?

Where’s The Anthropogenic Global Warming Signal in the NODC Ocean Heat Content Data (0-700Meters)?’

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/10/13/wheres-the-anthropogenic-global-warming-signal-in-the-nodc-ocean-heat-content-data-0-700meters/

What I find intriguing is the contrasting trends (negative vs positive) between UKMO EN3 and NOAA 0 – 700m OHC (not to mention Hansen’s model mean trend):-

comment image

I think this illustrates the effect of Josh Willis discarding “impossibly cold” floats early on.

That doesn’t explain the 2008 – 2012 discrepancy though, what’s going on there?

Brandoch Daha
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Brandoch Daha

Mate, if your getting your climate “science” from bent pennies like Watts, Tallbloke and Tisdale, then it’s no wonder you’re so easily confused and taken for a ride!

These guys are plain embarrassing to themselves and their wannabes, by making elementary errors that show why they never made it in the real world.

Here’s one of a truckload of examples:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/tisdale-fumbles-pielke-cheers/

In his current drivel, Tisdale puts up a number of straw men, then – big bloody surprise – manages to shoot them down. He could have saved himself the time.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Yet you get your climate science from the milk delivery guy…..

Richard C (NZ)
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Richard C (NZ)

>”That doesn’t explain the 2008 – 2012 discrepancy though, what’s going on there?”

Partially explained by another Tisdale post:-

‘UKMO EN3 Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Data Disappeared From The KNMI Climate Explorer As Suddenly As It Appeared’

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/06/02/ukmo-en3-ocean-heat-content-anomaly-data-disappeared-from-the-knmi-climate-explorer-as-suddenly-as-it-appeared/

Specifically this plot of UKMO EN3 vs NODC before and after 2010 modifications:-

comment image

Who to believe – UKMO or NODC?

Also an intriguing pdf (“C” = Circulation):-

‘The 2009/10 AMOC minimum and subtropical cooling in NEMO-based ocean reanalyses’

US AMOC PI meeting, Boulder, 15th August 2012

http://www.usclivar.org/sites/default/files/meetings/roberts_presentation.pdf

Unfortunately I can’t get all the graphics in the pdf but page 4 shows:-

Associated cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic, 2009 – 2012 [#1, see below]

Page 13 shows:-

Sub-tropical heat content anomalies in state estimates [spectacular cooling]

And page 15 shows:-

Sub-tropical heat budget: surface heat fluxes [sfc flux/OHC mismatch]

#1 is a good illustration of a two-heat-sink model, 0 – 875m (20 C – 8 C) and 875 – 1700m (8 C – 4 C)

Richard C (NZ)
Guest
Richard C (NZ)

Also from Tamino’s blog:-

From Peru | May 31, 2012 at 5:35 pm |

Will you ake a post defending yourself and Dana1981?

His arguments are strong because of the use of graphics. For me is difficult to challenge them despite having all the info I could get about global warming for many years (at least since 2006).

I suspect that other people wil found Tisdale arguments reasonable, so it will be great if you clarify this thing.

*
barry | June 1, 2012 at 9:37 am |

I went a few rounds with Tisdale on this topic (an earlier post of his) and likewise found it difficult to rebut him.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/05/31/through-a-picket-fence/#comment-62135

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