Comments on: Quo vadis?

By: Logan

Logan — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 11:29:00 +0000

You climate denialists need to get a life and move on. You also need to go to school and learn how to undertake a scientific assessment before you start slagging off real scientists (i.e. NIWA’s). Let them get on with their jobs.

By the way, who funds you guys these days? Is it still the oil industry…

By: John O'Sullivan

John O'Sullivan — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 12:35:44 +0000

Val,
Great point – this has made it difficult for me to perform my own critical analysis because without sight of what NIWA asserts in their submissions, comparing that with Venning’s analysis, we are at a disadvantage.
I would be most grateful if someone posted this online for public examination.

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 20:25:39 +0000

The average temperature of Dunedin Leith Valley 1887 -1908 from NIWA’s CliFlo database is 12.5 C but NZ BEST temperatures for that era are in the order of 10.5 -11 C:-

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Regional/TAVG/Figures/new-zealand-TAVG-Trend.png

BEST is a huge 1.5 – 2 C cooler and raises important questions about the validity of the early period of the BEST NZ series.

This thread should really end here and be continued under “Court no substitute for science”

By: NZ Herald’s turn to offer propaganda as opinion – De Freitas’ links to cranks hidden from readers

Wed, 12 Sep 2012 11:50:21 +0000

[...] series to policy-makers — a line straight out of crank litigant Barry Brill’s playbook, and self-evident [...]

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 10:29:00 +0000

I’ve got the logic wrong, the station is sited within the Oceania Region because extending the Region 500 km still turns up the same station, it’s just that it’s NOT in New Zealand.

Prior night shifts and not enough sleep make for woolly thinking I’m afraid.

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 10:01:17 +0000

Here we go. New Zealand is apparently part of the Oceania “Region”.

Regional Climate Change: Oceania page:-

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/oceania

Huge area, includes Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea, Pacific Islands etc.

Temperature Stations in Region
Active Stations: 749
Former Stations: 944
Monthly Mean Observations: 632,338
Earliest Observation: January 1841

Within 500 km of Region
Active Stations: 900
Former Stations: 1,166
Monthly Mean Observations: 755,011
Earliest Observation: January 1841

That explains the 1841 “New Zealand” station but curious that it comes from OUTSIDE the Region (unless that duplication is purely coincidence and I bet it isn’t). So that sole 1841 “New Zealand” station is sited somewhere in the 500 km periphery of the Oceania Region.

If I’ve got this right, the early part of the BEST New Zealand series (and trend) is bogus IMO, at least not compatible with later stations on the New Zealand mainland anyway. I’ve spread the joy to BEST fans in comments under the NZ Herald de Freitas article, let them pull my reasoning apart – if they can.

By: Richard Treadgold

Richard Treadgold — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 09:43:23 +0000

Val, they don’t exist as electronic files. Someone has to scan them. I have purchased access but haven’t taken advantage yet. One must attend at the Registrar’s office where they put you in a corner with a pile of paper and a photocopier. So far I’ve always had slightly better things to be doing…

By: Richard C (NZ)

Richard C (NZ) — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 09:17:40 +0000

On the right hand side of the BEST NZ page I see this:-

Temperature Stations in Region
Active Stations: 32
Former Stations: 16
Monthly Mean Observations: 22,956
Earliest Observation: June 1853

Within 500 km of Region
Active Stations: 50
Former Stations: 44
Monthly Mean Observations: 40,860
Earliest Observation: June 1853

“June 1853″ is Albert Park but CliFlo has Nov 1852 Dunedin, Princes Street as being earliest but that’s not the issue. The above indicates to me that the single station used prior to June 1853 was at least 500 km away from the “Region”. Not sure what defines the region but they give land area stats on the same page.

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/new-zealand

So is the “Region” a minor land mass criteria including say Chatham Is, Auckland Is etc or is it confined to the 3 major land masses? If the latter, Chatham Is would be the only candidate wouldn’t it (how far from SI to Chatham Is?)?

Andy, I’ll volunteer you to contact Richard Muller (good idea) seeing you suggested it. Also I get the impression you’ve got some handy knowledge of the BEST methodology that I certainly don’t have. Simon seems to have a handle too but I doubt whether he’d be willing (are you Simon?).

By: Rob Taylor

Rob Taylor — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 09:03:50 +0000

Because, Roger, the plaintiff’s were not able to show there was any case to answer.

By: Andy

Andy — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 08:51:59 +0000

Why don’t we contact Richard Muller and ask him who processed the NZ data? This might cut to the chase a bit quicker

I might get around to this later this week, if no one else volunteers first