8 Thoughts on “Temperature records quite old now

  1. Richard C (NZ) on December 25, 2012 at 8:09 am said:

    Roy Spencer has the UAH November anomaly posted at his website:-

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/12/uah-v5-5-global-temperature-update-for-november-2012-0-28-deg-c/

    • Thanks, RC. Not really warming, is It?

    • Richard C (NZ) on December 27, 2012 at 9:51 am said:

      >”Not really warming, is It?”

      Not yet, but apparently 2013 “is likely to be warmer than 2012″ according to the UK Met Office, or ‘A new world record(?)’ as Gareth puts it http://hot-topic.co.nz/a-new-world-record/

      I have no idea what they are basing their forecast on because 2013 ENSO predictions are for neutral conditions, the PDO is in cold mode, the sun’s going into recession etc, etc. I do expect that for the next 1 or 2 years global average temperatures will be elevated because there’s still plenty of residual heat in the ocean to dissipate (mostly in the Nth Atlantic) but it takes a concentrated release by El Niño to boost atm temperatures and it would take a very big one to boost above the 2005 and 2010 levels of the UKMO graph, both were El Niño years.

      What we have to keep in mind is that the UKMO graph is of ANNUAL averages i.e. the graph would be better presented as a bar graph. So their prediction is that the average of the ENTIRE year of 2013 will 0.12 C warmer than the ENTIRE year of 2012 (also an El Niño year) and 0.03 C warmer than the ENTIRE 2005 and 2010 record El Niño years – but how without an El Niño?

      No comments at the HT post; they don’t indulge in this type of analysis there.

      The leading indicator to my mind is SH SST. Except for the 2010 El Niño, that’s been cooling since 2002:-

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadsst2sh/from:2000/plot/hadsst2sh/from:2002/trend

    • Clarence on January 10, 2013 at 9:57 pm said:

      I agree that SST trends are probably better indicators of actual global temps than land measures, if only because the latter are so prone to contamination and adjustment.
      Are they measured by satellite or by ships?

      The Hadley graph shows a distinct cooling trend over the past decade. It would be interesting to know whether that visual trend is statistically significant. Does Hadley publish error bars?

      NIWA says that New Zealand temps are largely determined by surrounding SST. If that’s true, we should have seen a cooling in land temps over the past 10 years.

      Richard, why did you confine yourself to the southern hemisphere? It has more acreage than the North but I’d have expected the two to move more or less in tandem.

    • Richard C (NZ) on January 11, 2013 at 2:33 am said:

      Hi Clarence, your questions.

      >”Are they measured by satellite or by ships?”

      21st century HadSST2/3 now from ARGO floats (since 2003/4) and moored buoys. Satellite SST series available too (MODIS Aqua I think). NIWA provides a subscription service of live satellite data for sea surface temperature, chlorophyll analysis and satellite cloud imagery:-

      http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-services/online-services/satellite-data-services

      >”The Hadley graph shows a distinct cooling trend over the past decade. It would be interesting to know whether that visual trend is statistically significant. Does Hadley publish error bars?”

      I don’t know about the significance but the UKMO have given confidence limits on their historical record and 5 year prediction on the HadCRUT graph here Clarence:-

      http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/65157000/jpg/_65157024_65157023.jpg
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/the-other-big-story-today-bbc-forced-to-admit-global-warming-static/#more-77220

      HadSST is the SST component of HadCRUT, the addition of CRUTEM land tends to dampen the series. I note the lower limit of their prediction is definitely a continuation of cooling if that lower limit eventuates.

      >”NIWA says that New Zealand temps are largely determined by surrounding SST. If that’s true, we should have seen a cooling in land temps over the past 10 years.”

      A polynomial trend of the NZT7 does show cooling over the past 10 years:-

      http://i54.tinypic.com/27xjm0k.png

      >”Richard, why did you confine yourself to the southern hemisphere?”

      For a leading indicator (atmosphere is lagged about a year from ocean), and because there’s more ocean surface in the SH than in the NH, and because the SH metric is more sensitive to ENSO than NH is (see below). In other words, to isolate the predominant indicator.

      >”It has more acreage than the North but I’d have expected the two to move more or less in tandem.”

      Not in tandem at present because the PDO is now in cold mode but the NH AMO is in warm mode (but cooling even so) and will be for some years. When you aggregate NH and SH the difference between the two is lost so it is worth comparing SH, NH and Global side-by-side to see the markedly different SH/NH profiles and absolute levels since 2002 before aggregation and then how they aggregate to the global metric:-

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadsst2sh/from:2000/plot/hadsst2sh/from:2002/trend
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadsst2nh/from:2000/plot/hadsst2nh/from:2002/trend
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadsst2gl/from:2000/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/trend

      Over the late 20th century, the PDO was warm, AMO warm, El Nino was dominant, and TSI at grand maximum so we had warming that was erroneously attributed to aGHGs. Now in the 21st we have PDO cold, AMO warm, La Nina dominant (possibly), and TSI down from grand max but still near max levels so there’s not much chance of any more warming from that combination.

      If in a decade or two, it works out to be coinciding cold PDO, cold AMO, La Nina dominant, and TSI at grand minimum there will be radical cold similar to the Maunder Minimum for sure, That’s a speculative scenario of course but certainly a possibility. Scafetta 2009 reckons there’s a 1.5 W.m2 TSI difference between grand max and grand min from what I recall (could be wrong).

      Not forgetting the Indian Ocean has its own oscillations too.

  2. John Robertson on December 26, 2012 at 11:57 am said:

    Numbers will be forthcoming after the proper adjustments are made, standby.
    Sarcastic I know but the meme of 2012 being warm needs all the help the team can give it.

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