Abstract:
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe.We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale.
Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.
Bishop Hill reports that the Salzer et al.paper will play a prominent role in AR5, apparently suggesting that Bristlecone Pines are a reliable temperature proxy.
On the performance of models:
G. G. Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010) “A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data”
http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/943561__928051726.pdf
Abstract:
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe.We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale.
Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.
Bishop Hill reports that the Salzer et al.paper will play a prominent role in AR5, apparently suggesting that Bristlecone Pines are a reliable temperature proxy.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/9/19/yup.html
The subject of the Bristlecone Pines is discussed at length in BH’s book The Hockey Stick Illusion.