Papers
This thread is for discussion and listing of climate science papers.
Climate Conversation Group
Taking the heat out of global warming
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.
Latest climate models v. reality
As the models continue to leave actual temperature readings in their dust, sizeable warming halted about 1995 — although it might resume at any time. It must hasten to have any hope of catching up with the predictions.
If you claim warming continues, we want evidence of continued warming — eminently reasonable. Making us wait for 17 years for that evidence invites us to doubt you.
Claiming that warming hasn't stopped is the same as claiming it has — and both are ridiculous, for nobody knows the future. The best you can do is describe the past.
Click graph for larger version.
On the performance of models:
G. G. Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010) “A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data”
http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/943561__928051726.pdf
Abstract:
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe.We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale.
Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor.
Bishop Hill reports that the Salzer et al.paper will play a prominent role in AR5, apparently suggesting that Bristlecone Pines are a reliable temperature proxy.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/9/19/yup.html
The subject of the Bristlecone Pines is discussed at length in BH’s book The Hockey Stick Illusion.
New paper:
Summary available here: http://www.knowledgeminer.eu/pdf/eoo_paper_summary.pdf
Sorry about the formatting of the above excerpt. Copy & paste from pdf glitch.
Another paper finds that climate sensitivity is low
Nic Lewis has had a paper published in Journal of Climate. It’s a reworking of the Forest et al 2006 paper on climate sensitivity, but removing the warm bias of Forest’s uniform prior, as well as dealing with some data issues.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/4/16/another-paper-finds-that-climate-sensitivity-is-low.html