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For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.
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The Canadian military is racing to rescue more than 300 motorists who are trapped on a highway in the worst storm to hit Ontario in 25 years.
Some people were trapped for nearly 24 hours with snow piled up so high they could not open the doors of their cars on Highway 402 outside the town of Sarnia.
The military has mobilised a CC-130 Hercules airplane, two Griffons helicopters and an array of snowmobiles and four-wheel drive SUVs for the rescue effort.
They have reached some motorists just in the nick of time
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1338454/Midwest-snow-storm-moves-east-threatens-cause-chaos-travel-Christmas.html
Activists who planned to shut down the UK’s second largest power station have been found guilty of conspiring to commit aggravated trespass.
The 20 climate change protesters intended to invade the coal-fired station at Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire, their trial was told.
They were among more than 100 people arrested during a night-time raid at Iona School in Sneinton in April 2009
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-11992969
Towards an identity ecosystem.
http://arthur.shumwaysmith.com/life/content/towards_an_identity_ecosystem
This post explores the possibility of “attestable identities” This was brought up in relation to the Monbiot/North thread were comments were getting deleted from the Guardian
Very Big Brother.
Let’s have a look at this
———————————————————————————————————————-
Cold winters linked to ebbing Arctic ice
5:30 AM Monday Dec 27, 2010 – New Zealand Herald
Okaaay
1) “higher temperature” How was that measured Arctic-wide?
[Hint: Thermometers in the Arctic are conspicuous by their absence]
2) “caused by global warming” What global warming?
[Hint: There's been no statistically significant global warming in the last 15 years, so a non-existent event is "causing" another un-measured event - apparently]
3) “melted the sea ice” How?
[Hint: The temperature of the atmosphere overhead doesn't melt sea ice - the ocean underneath does]
4) “paradoxically increased the chances of colder winters” Really?
[Hint: Colder winters in Europe have occurred in the past as a result of solar minimums - refer Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum. Now add to those the "Monbiot Minimum"]
1) “Their models found” Models that are verified and validated?
[Hint: How were the models parameterized with non-existent Arctic temperatures? What was the ocean-atmosphere heat transfer mechanism if models have not evolved to the point of incorporating conduction at the surface? What is their hindcast success (or otherwise)]
2) “the heat” Heat (Q) in Arctic sea water – how much?
[Hint: Salinity will allow sea temperatures to fall below 0 degrees Celcius so we really would like to know how much "heat"]
1) “air….-20C or -30C” This is where the “heat” is now?
[Hint: If the "heat" from the ocean is released to the atmosphere, the temperature of the air will rise, will it not? So what were the before and after temperatures of the air?]
I could go on but I see the name “Rahmsdorf” so nuff said.
Nice analysis and I always find your exploration of models illuminating. I would mention that studies have shown i) winds have moved sea ice out of the Arctic into warmer Atlantic waters, ii) ocean currents have moved warmer waters into the Arctic, melting the ice and warming the atmosphere. They are both regional events, nothing to do with global anything.
Give me a couple of days, but this anaylsis will become a post. The Herald’s readers must be given a chance to hear a rebuttal to that nonsense.
And we’re the laymen.
The paper was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research so there’s the possibility that someone from the science fraternity will write a more learned rebuttal in their lunch-break.
The question is, now that the Herald has taken to publishing commentary on the latest scientific papers, will they publish the rebuttal in six months time? And what will be the headline then?
Also, is this a one-off to steer public perception back to the path of enlightenment or will they publish other news from the steady stream of new papers e.g. this paper from the same Journal of Geophysical Research 10/29/2010:-
Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum
N. A. Krivova, L. E. A. Vieira, S. K. Solanki 2010
New Paper: Solar UV activity increased almost 50% over past 400 years
The TSI is estimated to have increased 1.25 W/m2 since the Maunder minimum as shown in the first graph below. Use of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W/m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate .44C global temperature increase [the HADCRU global warming from 1850 to 2000 is .55C].
This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels. Solar UV is capable of penetrating the ocean to depths of several meters to cause ocean heating. whereas long wave infrared emission from “greenhouse gases” or the sun is only capable of penetrating the ocean surface a few microns with all energy lost to the phase change of evaporation with no net heating of the ocean.
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/open-threads/climate/climate-science/solar/#comment-33501
I’m pickin we wont see that in the Herald though.
The model temperature was probably forced by NCEP/NCAR “reanalysis” of LAND stations north of 60 deg N from CRUTem 3v dataset as have been used by previous Potsdam Institute model simulations. This because there are NO weather stations in the middle of the Arctic ocean.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/atmosphere.html
The NOAA Arctic anomaly 60 – 90 deg N shows a very clear warm-cool-warm cycle with warming from 1965 – 2005 but the last data point 1 deg COOLER than that previous. So if heat was released from the ocean, it doesn’t show in the anomaly.
There is also this contradiction from NOAA:-
“While 2009 showed a slowdown in the rate of annual air temperature increases in the Arctic ………….. There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss.”
Then this corroboration:-
“There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern.”
Searching for – hindcast simulation arctic sea ice – turns up some work on this topic with one interesting letter:-
“LIM3, an advanced sea-ice model for climate simulation and operational oceanography”
http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/vancop/WEB/Docs/Vancoppenolle_et_al_MERCATOR08.pdf
“The Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model (LIM) has been coupled to OPA (Ocean Parallélisé) almost 10 years ago, leading to significant successes in ice-ocean and climate simulations. Meanwhile, the development of LIM kept going on, leading to LIM3, a C-grid, dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model including the representation of the subgrid scale variations of ice thickness, enthalpy, salinity and age, which we describe in more detail in the next section.
Then, the results of two 1970-2007 hindcasts performed with NEMO – one using LIM2 and the other using LIM3 – are compared to available observations of ice concentration, thickness and mixed layer depth.”
[Note: The authors have previously advocated better physics and LIM3 is the resulting improvement over LIM2]
“Conclusion and perspectives
In this letter, we presented the new LIM3 sea ice model and reviewed the results of a 1970- 2007 hindcast simulation performed with NEMO using LIM2 / LIM3. The results show that NEMO-LIM3 produces mean sea ice coverage and thickness fields that compare significantly better to available observations. In addition, variability and trends in ice coverage, as well as patterns of anomalies are also better captured. This suggests that the inclusion of LIM3 would affect and probably improve the results of climate projections in coupled GCMs. Finally, the improved sea ice field also results in a better distribution of the convection sites in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, LIM3 is certainly a more accurate tool for ice-ocean and climate simulations as well as for operational oceanography. Further development, calibration and use of NEMO-LIM will continue during the next few years in Louvain-la-Neuve”
………………………………………………….
So the question remains as to how sophisticated the physics of the Potsdam model(s) is(are) and do they use LIM and which version?
The Petoukhov and Semenov paper was submitted in November 2009.
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents
Abstract
The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005–2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005–2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then back again to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model that may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009JD013568.shtml
So possibly ECHAM5 NEMO does parameterize ocean-atmosphere heat convection – I’ll have a look later.
But note that “The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming” does NOT refer to 2010 but to warming prior to Nov 2009. The NH has COOLED in 2010
http://junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/UAHMSUNHem.html
This lecture from 10 June 2010 EU COMBINE project,
Sea-ice data assimilation in NEMO-LIM2 and -LIM3 using the Ensemble
Kalman Filter
http://www.combine-project.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/combine/20100609_GA1/Posters_Abstracts.pdf
Indicates that LIM2 was more likely used by ECHAM5 NEMO in 2009 than LIM# as there are still problems integrating LIM3
“We use the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate either sea-ice concentration or seaice thickness data into the coupled ocean sea-ice models NEMO-LIM2 and -LIM3. Output from our data assimilation system is intended to be used to initialize decadal forecasts within the EU-project COMBINE. For now assimilated data is model generated (twin experiments).
We find that assimilation of data of one variable in NEMO-LIM2 does not only improve the assimilated variable but also non-assimilated variables. Such cross-variable improvement is very promising considering the scarcity of polar data, particularly of sea-ice thickness. We also show preliminary results of data assimilation experiments into the new version of our sea-ice model, NEMO-LIM3, where data assimilation does not yet lead to the expected results.”
——————————————————————————————————————–
Just the heat convection question to answer but it’s not a pretty picture so far.
Conduction – not convection, got confused by the abstract.
Ocean Heat: Solar Gain – Loss to Atmosphere
Solar Radiation: …+168 watts per square meter (SW)
Net Back Radiation: -66 watts per square meter (LW)
Conduction: ……..-24 watts per square meter
Latent Heat: ………-78 watts per square meter
Sea-Air Heat Exchange http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/o_atm.html
Model Information of Potential Use to the IPCC Lead Authors and the AR4. ECHAM5_MPI-OM
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ECHAM5_MPI-OM.htm
However, we are looking for atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling.
“Influence of coupling on atmosphere, sea ice and ocean regional models in the Ross Sea sector, Antarctica”
Nicolas C. Jourdain • Pierre Mathiot • Hubert Galle´e • Bernard Barnier Received: 11 September 2009 / Accepted: 23 July 2010
Copyright Springer-Verlag 2010
http://www.springerlink.com/content/1544613222vp8n27/fulltext.pdf
[Why?]
[Note Tango uses NEMO2.0 LIM2]
———————————————————————————————————————
Did Petoukhov and Semenov know about the Jourdain et al paper and LIM2-LIM3 progression?
Because the result of that shows that until Messers Petoukhov and Semenov deploy ECHAM5 NEMO3.0 LIM3 with atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling, the heat transfer at the surface (conduction through sea ice) is inadequately modeled (parameterized) and the physics needs improving from LIM2 to LIM3.
i.e. There’s still aways to go in model evolution and the conclusion is premature in addition to their speculation. The configuration they used:-
1) Produced too much sea ice (not enough ocean heat gain from solar).
2) Produced too much heat flux over sea ice (too much ocean heat loss through sea ice).
The same simulations using an up-graded configuration might output an even greater Arctic atmospheric temperature rise – it’s worse than we thought.
Then the simulations have to be compared to observations (Modeled vs Observed). i.e. They have speculated on qualitative agreement but what about quantitative agreement? That exercise wont make the newspaper headlines though.
This is just a syndicated version of an Independent article than ran a few days ago.
Richard North did a piece on this
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/transient-phenomenon.html
“The immaculate conception of climate change”
No one in Britain takes these clowns seriously anymore (apart from the government and Guardian readers).
Severe blizzard conditions in NE USA
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/its-local-event.html
I was getting this via Facebook too, with friends stuck in airports over there
“Big freeze gives way to brief thaw before more snow and ice”
Looks like a brief thaw before another return to freezing conditions in the UK:
(not sure whose forecast this is though)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8225719/Big-freeze-gives-way-to-brief-thaw-before-more-snow-and-ice.html
Time Magazine Goes Full Stupid
The Northeast Blizzard: One More Sign of Global Warming
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/time-magazine-goes-full-stupid/
Bastardi and Corbyn respond to the Met Office
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/bastardi-and-corbyn-reply/
Dave Barry’s 2010 Year in Review
FEBRUARY
In other sports news, the Vancouver Winter Olympics begin on an uncertain note when it is discovered that Vancouver — apparently nobody realized this ahead of time — is a seaside city with a mild climate, so there is no snow.
MARCH
On a more hopeful note, on March 27 people in more than 4,000 cities around the world turn off their lights in observance of Earth Hour, saving an estimated 45 million megawatts of electricity — enough to power one of Al Gore’s houses for nearly three days.
DECEMBER
The federal government will continue to fund a “green energy” program under which corn is converted into ethanol, which is then converted back into corn, which is then planted to grow more corn. This will cost $5 billion a year, but it is expected to create or save literally dozens of Iowa jobs.
On the environmental front, delegates from 193 countries at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Cancún, Mexico, pass a resolution stating that they should not have had those last four rounds of margaritas.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/01/01/1992746_p4/dave-barrys-2010-year-in-review.html#ixzz1A0bGu8kL
Germany Passes Energy Tyranny Act – Will Force Energy Rationing
By P Gosselin on 3. Januar 2011
This is serious. A new law has been passed by the German government, quietly and almost unnoticed. Soon in the future, the government will tell its citizens how much energy they can consume.
If the German State can pass this, then it can pretty much do whatever the hell it damn well pleases.
Gone are the days of a government that is there to serve its citizens. Here to stay is a group of elitists who are going to boss the citizens around and tell them how to live.
http://notrickszone.com/2011/01/03/germany-passes-energy-tyranny-act-will-force-energy-rationing/
Chris de Freitas in the NZ Herald today
Unlike most other hot button environmental issues, global warming is widely misunderstood. As a climate scientist thinking about this, it struck me that it was not surprising since accounts of the scientific basics of global warming almost never appear anywhere in the press.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10697845
Booker:
The Met Office fries while the rest of the world freezes
As the Met Office desperately tries to salvage its reputation, another of this ‘warm’ winter’s ice disasters is unfolding in the Sea of Okhotsk, writes Christopher Booker.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8248146/The-Met-Office-fries-while-the-rest-of-the-world-freezes.html
The drama in the sea of Okhotsk is one I have been following on EURef. There are hundreds of sailors stuck in the ice, their lives at threat.
Study: Banded penguins die sooner, skewing climate data
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-01-12-banded-penguins_N.htm?csp=34news
Attach a band to the penguin, makes it harder for them to swim, then they die.
Welcome to climate science 101
The BBC became a propaganda machine for climate change zealots, says Peter Sissons… and I was treated as a lunatic for daring to dissent
By Peter Sissons
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1350206/BBC-propaganda-machine-climate-change-says-Peter-Sissons.html#ixzz1C1fa8W32
This is not news to me, but interesting to see it in the MSM
The Daily Bayonet’s Weekly roundup
As always a great read
http://dailybayonet.com/?p=7844
The quotes from Chris Evans (BBC Radio 2 presenter) are just priceless.
Green Writer for BBC, Guardian, Demands: End Farming, Dismantle Civilization.
Dr John Feeney is a prominent green campaigner who has written for the Guardian newspaper, the BBC, and many other Green journals and websites. He was the winner of the 2007 ECO award. In 2009 he received the Global Media award from the Population Institute for his work.
Now this award-winning Greenie has joined the growing list of ecologists and activists who are saying that the root of the problem is agriculture, which enables humans to “circumvent” nature’s sacred limits and build earth-destroying civilizations. Like many others, he accuses us of being in “denial” over the need to return to a hunter-gatherer way of life:
Read more here:
http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/green-writer-for-bbc-guardian-demands-end-of-farming-dismantle-civilization/
Bankers learn climate science
Monday, January 31, 2011 – Washington Post
At the woods’ edge, small groups of HSBC technology managers, armed with clipboards and measuring tapes, meticulously determine the circumference of specially tagged trees down to a tenth of an inch. They’re wearing bright orange vests because it’s deer-hunting season, and though field science isn’t in their job descriptions, their employer, HSBC bank, wants them to understand climate change.
HSBC joined with Earthwatch Institute in 2007 in a $100 million partnership to train 2,000 bank employees in climate change science and conduct the largest-ever field experiment looking at the long-term effects of climate change on forests. In five climate centers on four continents, bank workers — from cashiers to staff in marketing, human resources, technology services and call centers — become so-called “Climate Champions” through two-week trainings, during which they meet with scientists, learn about sustainability and contribute to the international study.
“Everyone comes in with a different background,” says Anna Janovicz, a learning and communications manager at Earthwatch, “and the light bulb that goes off is different for everybody.”
For Wa’il Ashshowwaf, from HSBC’s D.C. office, the light bulb was realizing that rising sea levels may change our global landscape within our lifetimes.
Continues……….
Fred Pearce writes about the Lisbon conference on climate reconciliation:
Climate sceptics offer a peace deal. Well, no it wasn’t quite like that. But in Lisbon, Portugal, last week, I joined a group of 28 climate scientists, bloggers and professional contrarians who spent three days discussing how to encourage reconciliation in the increasing fractious debate about the science of climate change.
The meeting was the brainchild of University of Oxford science philosopher Jerry Ravetz, an 81-year-old Greenpeace member who fears Al Gore may have done as much damage to environmentalism as Joseph Stalin did to socialism. Post-Climategate, he found climate science characterised by “a poisoned atmosphere” in which “each side accuses the other of being corrupt”. Mainstream researchers were labelled “ideologues on the gravy train”, while sceptics were denigrated as “prostitutes and cranks”.
His dream of an instant rapprochement in Lisbon didn’t come off. The eventual make-up of the workshop, paid for by the European Commission, was too lopsided in favour of the sceptical camp.
Those making the trip included heroes of the sceptics such as statistician Steve McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick, plus writers and bloggers such as Steve Mosher, the man who broke the Climategate story, and “heretical” scientists such as Georgia Tech’s Judy Curry and Peter Webster.
Avowed non-sceptics included Hans von Storch, a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and James Risbey of CSIRO. But the leaders of mainstream climate science turned down the gig, including NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, who said the science was settled so there was nothing to discuss.
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2011/02/climate-sceptics-scientists-at.html
Google takes on climate sceptics
http://solveclimatenews.com/news/20110318/google-climate-change-fellows-science-new-media
Check out the comments on the blog. Not a good move for “Don’t be evil”
This looks like an interesting book:
Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout: The Making of a Sensible Environmentalist
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Confessions-Greenpeace-Dropout-Sensible-Environmentalist/dp/0986480827
The single book review is worth a read a rings a few bells for me.
Heartland Institute’s Sixth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-6), Washington, DC, June 3, 2011
Lineup includes:-
* Timothy Ball, Ph.D., environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. He was recently sued for libel by Michael Mann, a prominent figure in the Climategate scandal.
* Barry Brill, OBE, New Zealand barrister and solicitor. He is a former minister of science & technology and minister of energy, and is currently chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.
* Alan Carlin, Ph.D., former senior analyst and manager at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In March 2009 he authored a highly critical internal review of EPA’s draft report on endangerment from greenhouse gases, which led him to become a whistle-blower.
* Robert “Bob” Carter, Hon. FRSNZ, research professor at James Cook University (Queensland, Australia), where he was head of the School of Earth Sciences between 1981 and 1999. He is author of Climate: The Counter Consensus.
* Scott Denning, Ph.D., professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University. Denning believes in man-caused global warming and spoke last year at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago.
* Christopher Horner, J.D., senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and author of Red Hot Lies: How Global Warming Alarmists Use Threats, Fraud and Deception to Keep You Misinformed.
* Craig Idso, Ph.D., chairman of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and coauthor of Climate Change Reconsidered: The 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change.
* Robert O. Mendelsohn, Ph.D., Edwin Weyerhaeuser Davis Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics at Yale University and author of the forthcoming book Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation, and Distributional Effects.
* Patrick J. Michaels, Ph.D., distinguished senior fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University and a senior fellow in environmental policy at the Cato Institute. He is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and was program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society and editor of the new book Climate Coup: Global Warming’s Invasion of Our Government and Our Lives.
* Marc Morano, executive editor and chief correspondent for ClimateDepot.com, a global warming and eco-news center founded in 2009. Morano served for three years as a senior advisor, speechwriter, and climate researcher for the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
* Nicola Scafetta, Ph.D., research scientist in the Duke University Physics Department. His research interests are in theoretical and applied statistics and nonlinear models of complex processes. He has published peer-reviewed papers in journals covering a wide variety of disciplines, including astronomy, biology, climatology, economics, and physics.
* Harrison Schmitt, Ph.D., is a former NASA astronaut and U.S. Senator. He is the twelfth and last person to set foot on the Moon. He served as chair of the NASA Advisory Council and is currently adjunct professor of engineering physics at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is a field geologist who received a Ph.D. from Harvard University.
* David Schnare, Ph.D., J.D., senior fellow for energy and the environment for the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy. He is an attorney and scientist with 32 years of federal and private-sector experience consulting on and litigating local, state, federal, and international environmental legislative, regulatory, risk management, and free-market environmentalism issues.
* S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., founder and president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, coauthor of Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years and Climate Change Reconsidered, and professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.
* Willie Soon, Ph.D., astrophysicist and a geoscientist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
* Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville where he directs a variety of climate research projects. He is the author of several books, including most recently, The Great Global Warming Blunder.
* James M. Taylor, J.D., senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of its Environment & Climate News. He writes Climate Change Weekly, a Heartland e-newsletter, and a weekly column on climate change issues for Forbes.com.
* David G. Tuerck, Ph.D., executive director of the Beacon Hill Institute, and professor and chairman of the Suffolk University Department of Economics.
* Anthony Watts, a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. He hosts the popular climate change blog Wattsupwiththat.com and a Web site at surfacestations.org devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/6/prweb8608147.htm
Sounds great. Maybe Barry Brill could post up something here about his trip.
“Good” news from Google: We’ll allegedly use vastly more electric cars by 2030. “bad” news: They’ll be powered by coal
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2011/06/news-from-google-we-allegedly-use.html
Map: The Climate Change Scare Machine — the perpetual self-feeding cycle of alarm
Climate Change Scare Machine Cycle: see how your tax dollars are converted into alarming messages
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/map-the-climate-change-scare-machine-the-perpetual-self-feeding-cycle-of-alarm/
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This is an amazing depiction and documentation of the “scare machine” and has really backfired on Time Magazine, The New York Times and others pushing a “denier machine” meme I think
Borenstein “obtains” a draft IPCC report, spins it up on the coat-tails of “similar” events, and media editors dutifully spread the joy.
APNewsbreak: Panel says wild weather worsens
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
WASHINGTON — Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the Northeast U.S. to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often. And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press.
The final draft of the report from a panel of the world’s top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars. The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become “increasingly marginal as places to live.”
The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda. It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases.
This marks a change in climate science from focusing on subtle changes in daily average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, cause economic damage and kill people. The most recent bizarre weather extreme, the pre-Halloween snowstorm, is typical of the damage climate scientists warn will occur — but it’s not typical of the events they tie to global warming.
>>>>>>>>>
http://www.wral.com/news/science/story/10321244/
“Freakish weather disasters….are striking more often” apparently.
Get ready for a very alarming IPCC report to be released soon in an effort to hype up COP17 Durban.
One question: how exactly was Thailand’s massive flood plain (the size of Florida with Bangkok at the base) formed, except by massive floods?
Seth Borenstein, this guy?
AP’s Seth Borenstein is just too damn cozy with the people he covers – time for AP to do something about it
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/12/aps-seth-borenstein-is-just-too-damn-cozy-with-the-people-he-covers-time-for-ap-to-do-somethig-about-it/
or this one?
Long sad history of AP reporter Seth Borenstein’s woeful global warming reporting
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/2546/Long-sad-history-of-AP-reporter-Seth-Borensteins-woeful-global-warming-reporting
yet the NZ “media” dutifully regurgitate his words.
(These were the top two search results when Googling his name)
Looks like AFP “obtained” a copy of the draft report too:-
Climate change linked to extreme weather
AFP
A draft UN report three years in the making concludes that man-made climate change has boosted the frequency or intensity of heat waves, wildfires, floods and cyclones and that such disasters are likely to increase in the future.
The document being discussed by the world’s Nobel-winning panel of climate scientists says the severity of the impacts vary, and some regions are more vulnerable than others.
Hundreds of scientists working under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) will vet the phonebook-sized draft at a meeting in Kampala of the 194-nation body later this month.
[...]
AFP obtained a copy of the draft report’s 20-page Summary for Policymakers, which is subject to revision by governments before release on November 18.
Most of these events match predicted impacts of manmade global warming, which has raised temperatures, increased the amount of water in the atmosphere and warmed ocean surface temperatures — all drivers of extreme weather.
But teasing apart the role of natural fluctuations in the weather and rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has proven devilishly difficult for scientists.
[...]
The new report’s main conclusions about future trends include:
- It is “virtually certain” — 99-100% sure — that the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes will increase over the 21st century on a global scale;
>>>>>>>>>
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/climate-change-linked-to-extreme-weather-20111101-1mu3a.html
The re-re-framing of AGW via complicit media
LA Times “obtained” a copy
You Have Got To Be Kidding – A Los Angeles Times Article Titled “‘Snowtober’ Fits U.N. Climate Change Predictions”
[...]
The historic snowstorm in the northeast United States a few days ago was due to an unusually far south Polar jet stream for this time of the year, and colder than average temperatures associated with the east coast storm. To claim that this event fits with the IPCC climate change predictions is ridiculous. The article reads as an op-ed in the guise of a news article.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/you-have-got-to-be-kidding-a-los-angeles-times-article-titled-snowtober-fits-u-n-climate-change-predictions/
The NZHerald are no longer even trying to hide the fact that they are altering webpage links by sceptics in the comments on AGW articles to make them inoperable. Check out this story:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10769953
Now look at the comment by ‘NZCimate (New Zealand) 11:46 AM Friday, 2 Dec 2011′
His link has been altered so the word corruption is now ‘climategate-2-and-c*********-of-peer-review/’
I wrote a reply to it pointing out the alteration and showing it should be ‘corruption’. Looking at the preview in my account, it is appearing as the following:
‘I see the NZHerald moderators have been altering peoples links again when they point to things that go against their personal beliefs. The missing part of the link that someone from the Herald has removed should read -c*********-of-peer-review/
Sums up the AGW crowd really, or as Phil Jones would say – ‘hide the decline’. Such a shame that a great newspaper such as the NZ Herald has let their standards slip so far.’
I’ve caught the moderators doing it over & over & have let the editors know repeatedly but they let it continue.
Message received and transmitted to comments (I’m Nonentity at NZ Herald BTW)
Anthropogenic Global Cooling – Ha!, gets me every time.
I think I might give up on the NZ Herald. There’s only a tiny handful of deluded AGW believers left as the others have given up, and the drop in the amount of comments there shows that either everyone’s had enough of AGW, or they are sick of the tabloid journalism at the Herald’s sacred alter to climate change. Jeez, the moderators there are starting to resemble John Cook, I’m just wondering how long before they start altering people’s comments as well as the web links they provide.
(To the moderator – Richard C posted something to this thread yesterday and it isn’t appearing. If the ‘older comments’ link is clicked it shows 127 comments, but when the ‘newer comments’ link is clicked it shows 126 comments. The comment is missing in action. Could you please check it out as I’m quite interested to see what it says? Many Thanks.)
[I've searched for this but come up empty. There's nothing caught in the spam trap and nothing awaiting moderation. Any clue to its content? Perhaps Richard C might enlighten us? - RT]
RT, AGC has copied a comment submitted to NZ Herald, not CCG sorry.
AGC, it takes a while for the Herald mods to post up the comments so give it time. It may not be cleared over the weekend but here’s hoping. BTW the comment count is 27 not 127.
I’ve had problems with Herald comments in the past but it turned out to be a an automated correction feature that alters spelling, changes caps e.g. NOAA to noaa and generally stuffs everything up including formatting..
How that feature could change corruption to c********* beats me though but there is 9 * (wild cards?) so either it’s the auto-correction or the Editor was very careful.
RT, AGC has copied a comment submitted to NZ Herald, not CCG sorry.
OK.
My comment has been posted this morning but the question to the Editors as to why the word “corruption” in NZ Climate’s link had been corrupted is deleted and the corruption remains in the link.
They deleted my comment on the changing of the weblink also. Usually they just change 1 character so that the poster doesn’t notice, but now they don’t even try to hide what they’re doing. I think they have a greenie as a moderator or editor, but it only happens some times which suggests that not all their moderators are at it. The thing that gets up my nose is the editor allows it to happen – I’ve sent numerous emails alerting him to the fact. It exposes the decline of the journalistic standards at the NZ Herald – the paper is starting to look like the Guardian or the BBC, and the editorial practices are resembling John Cook’s altering of comments on his scepticalscience.conjob website.
Curious that when when Gandalf posts a comment, BEST reads BEST but when I submit a comment BEST reads best.
Gandalf must have friends in Herald places, either that or he’s in the place.
I often wonder whether Gandalf works for the NZ Herald, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’ve been reading the comments for about 5 yrs now & he was there before I started. He lies his ass off & when you back him into a corner he’ll just start back at the beginning of the debate again like nothing happened. I see he’s just said that the ACT party believe the ‘climates been cooling for the last 100 years’. There’s only one thing worse than a lying nutter, & that’s a know-it-all lying nutter.
Comment 02:07 PM Tuesday, 6 Dec 2011
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10771213
More propaganda from The Herald, this time from Greenpeace’s Cindy Baxter
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/greenpeace/news/article.cfm?o_id=320&objectid=10380264
Speaking of John Cook, I see that SkS have now released the “debunking handbook”
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-now-freely-available-download.html
Some fun comments in the thread
Hi Richard T. There’s something wrong with the comments on this page. As I mentioned previously a comment wasn’t visible, but when I posted about it it reappeared. Now that both you & Richard C have since posted the comments are disappearing again. I’ve tried both Safari on a Mac & Firefox on Windows but the result is the same. You can delete this comment after you’ve read it if you like.
Ok. So this comment has appeared, because I can see it.
What leads you to say that “the comments are disappearing again”?
After I posted my ‘to the moderator’ post at December 3, 2011 at 7:36 am both of the posts by Richard C @ December 3, 2011 at 8:38 & yourself @ December 3, 2011 at 8:48 wouldn’t show. I knew they were there as I could see that you’d both posted in the Latest Comments on the right side of the page. Also when I clicked the Older Comments link the amount of comments would show more (131), but when I clicked back to Newer Comments the last one was my original at December 2, 2011 at 4:11 pm, & the number of comments was back to 127. Having said that your latest one seems ok.
Well, I appreciate your feedback, AGC, and the trouble you’ve gone to, thanks.
Just one puzzling point: at 1:51pm, when you said “the comments are disappearing again”, do you think you were mistaken?
I think the important thing is that the comments are fixed now. We can probably put the strange behaviour earlier down to the fact that the database was confused. I and other posters were updating several things simultaneously and our separate caches were in different states. As long as it’s now well behaved I think I can relax.
If you have no objection within a few hours, I’ll delete this little exchange.
Sorry Richard but it’s done it again. I need to post something to see what you just said. it doesn’t matter so much to me, but I’m wondering if I’m the only one.
Yes, I’m a bit concerned too. But it’s working for me. Just a thought: you must be refreshing the page just to see that there’s a new comment, right? So this advice won’t help. But, to refresh the view, you press F5. You know about that?
Feel free to delete it all Richard.
I didn’t know about the F5. I’ve seen this sort of thing before but it usually comes right after 30 mins. or so. Hopefully it’s just a temporary glitch. I’ll keep an eye on it for you if you like & let you know if it’s continuing on a longer term.
Damn computers always seem to develop a mind of their own every once in a while.
Right. What I was thinking of was that, instead of waiting that 30 mins or so for the cache to update itself, you might try pressing F5, which forces an immediate refresh. Then you might see the displayed comments match the number of comments reported in the sidebar. Let me know!
I tried the f5 key but it doesn’t refresh. Perhaps it’s because I’m using Safari.
Yes, could be. I’d look for the equivalent, something like View | Refresh.
I used the refresh button but it gave the same results. It seems ok now.
Ctrl F5 does a fuller refresh than just F5
a
Super-Monckton parachutes into Durban
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4I9PoOjPa_w
This Richard Black BBC article is a keeper (and the quote is stellar):-
I did NOT expect to be reading THIS from the BBC around this time of year.
Can it get any sillier?
Egg gas finding a rotten result for free-range hens
EGGS from caged hens produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions than free range eggs, a new report has found, prompting calls for carbon footprint labelling to be used on all food products in Australia.
A report for the Australian Egg Corporation, which represents most egg farmers, found that free range egg production’s carbon footprint in Australia was about 20 per cent higher than caged production.
The main reason was because free range egg production uses more feed per kilogram of eggs produced than caged egg production, the report, which was half-funded by the federal government, found.
The report also found that egg production had a lower carbon footprint than several European egg studies, mainly due to more efficient grain production in Australia.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/egg-gas-finding-a-rotten-result-for-freerange-hens-20111216-1oyic.html#ixzz1glhNJXI0
Free range hens consume more feed per kilogram of eggs produced than caged hens – duh!
I hope, that come the revolution, there are enough lamppost vacancies for the fools who come up with this kind of rubbish
It seems that the NZ Guardian (I mean Herald) now just removes your ability to comment on climate change articles if you don’t tow the pro AGW line. After having a few comments published my ability to comment has disappeared – the button to ‘ADD’ comment is non existent whilst other people are still commenting. I can still comment on other articles, just not the Jim Hopkins one:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10773421
I knew I shouldn’t have wasted my time reading that stupid leftie tabloid journalist rag.
Did you try a different IP address? I’d be interested in how they are blocking you. Cookie maybe?
There’s plenty of sceptical comments on that thread.
I’ve been blocked from seeing the comments (probably a good thing though).
The comments box comes and goes but I haven’t bothered to try adding anything.
Sheesh you guys are paranoid.
I think there maybe browser or other issues.
Try a different browser, unplug the modem to get an IP refresh, clear the cookies, but I don’t believe anyone at Das Herald is smart enough to block you.
You’re right Andy – tried a different browser and I can see comments.
Tried a different browser on another computer with Windows instead of Mac OS X with the same result. I can comment on other articles but not this one, even though I’ve commented already about 4 times (maybe they have a limit). I might be paranoid, but I’ve caught them altering web links a good 10 times previously in comments (very unlikely to be automated) & here we have the comments box disappearing when I start skewering the greenies. The worst part is that it looks like I’ve run away from their counterarguments dammit, at the hands of that imbecile Gandalf no less.
Most likely explanation is that they have a limit of 4 comments. There are so many sceptical views that it seems unlikely that they are blocking you
I have to wonder what some of you might be doing wrong. I’ve just had a quick count on the first few screens of comments on Jim’s article and noticed eight comments from me. I think there are more, but they were all published as I submitted them. They always took some hours to appear, but they don’t appear to have been interfered with in any way, nor has my ability to create new comments been restricted. I want to check that, but it’ll take until tomorrow. I’ve got more enjoyable things to do!
b
Abertawe yn un QPR sero
Posted on December 27, 2011 by Steven Goddard
A fydd abertawe yn gwneud y deg uchaf?
http://www.real-science.com/abertawe-yn-qpr-sero#comments
Thought you’d all like to know.
I think this article is worthy of the News post.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/29/unified-theory-of-climate/
Unified Theory of Climate
Posted on December 29, 2011 by Anthony Watts
This idea that the Greenhouse effect doesn’t exist at all has been propositioned here and elsewhere by Harry Dale Huffman (maybe not exactly as in this paper)
This certainly would completely blow apart the CO2 AGW theory.
The new idea here is comparing other planets to earth in terms of atmosphere, pressure, TOA temp, surface temp and GHG levels. The overall finding is that atmosphere mass and pressure is a big driver of climate. It certainly is sparking some debate, including a responding article contending that Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller confuse cause with effect.
Congratulations to Dr David Wratt on the QSO in the New Year’s Honours list, for Services to Science
2012 Bloggie Awards being called for
read all about it (you can nominate up to 3 blogs)
closing date 15 January
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/02/2012-bloggies-awards-nominations-open/#more-54095
I know what I’m going to do
——————————————————————————–
The Year That Winter Forgot: Is It Climate Change?
By Bryan Walsh Monday, Jan. 09, 2012
And then there’s the less quantifiable, more lyrical value of winter — a cold, frozen, crystalline season that’s beautiful and punishing all at once. As the British poet Anne Bradstreet said, “If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant.” Climate change disrupts the rhythm of the seasons, that regular passage of time and temperature we assumed was fixed. It turns out we may be wrong, and winter as we know it could one day be a season of the past. As we keep altering the climate, who can tell what else might follow it into unplanned obsolescence.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2104040,00.html#ixzz1jJgYzkTI
“…..winter as we know it could one day be a season of the past” – poetic.
Bill Gates backs climate scientists lobbying for large-scale geoengineering
A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.
The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a “plan B” for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/06/bill-gates-climate-scientists-geoengineering?newsfeed=true
I wish they’d choose another planet to “geoengineer”
Does Bill plan an “uninstall” option?
Geoengineering proposals in the News back in 1933:-
Men Who Can Change The Climate
Posted on February 10, 2012 by Steven Goddard
http://www.real-science.com/men-change-climate
Great new article on Climate Change in the National Business Review – highly recommended:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sanity-prevail-climate-change-policy-115955