New Zealand

This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.

232 Thoughts on “New Zealand

  1. Richard C (NZ) on August 4, 2012 at 8:22 pm said:

    A similar case to the Denniston challenge has just been dismissed in the US but note the difference to NZ’s RMA considerations:-
    Judge dismisses lawsuit over Wyoming coal leases

    A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge from environmental groups that sought to block federal coal leases in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin on the grounds that burning the coal would contribute to global warming.

    John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians in Santa Fe, N.M., said his group is disappointed with Kollar-Kotelly’s ruling and plans to appeal.

    “We’re especially disappointed given that this ruling never gets to the real merits. We’ve been bounced on standing,” Horning said. “And it’s, I think, a pretty cynical view of the impacts of climate change to dismiss one’s standing because the impacts are so diffuse. We’re all affected by climate change.”

    Horning said his group has focused on the Powder River Basin because of the scale of mining and coal production there. Wyoming is the nation’s leading coal-producing state and most of its production comes from that area.

    Marion Loomis, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said Thursday he’s thankful the judge dismissed the suits. His group is a member of the National Mining Association, which intervened as a defendant.

    “The Department of Interior has to follow their rules and laws that are on the books,” Loomis said. “I don’t think there’s anything on the department’s laws, rules or regulations that says they have to take into account any climate change. Until that happens, they shouldn’t be taking that into consideration in their environmental reviews.”
    Denniston may set a precedent if USA implements RMA-type climate change considerations.

  2. Richard C (NZ) on August 9, 2012 at 6:31 pm said:

    This frost protection thread must invoke this AdSense of page,

    Frost Protection
    Portable frost fan, Tow and Blow grapes, apples, vegetables, berries

    Bottom of page,

    Mobile Wind Turbine
    Wind generator for frost prevention Protect vineyards, orchards, crops

    7m high fan Mike. Doesn’t give any result anecdotes or temperature profiles that I can see though.

  3. Doug Proctor on August 21, 2012 at 1:21 pm said:

    Hi, Richard,

    I seem to recall that NIWA left the Court with a Adverse Inference situation. Is that still happening?

  4. New York philanthropist and billionaire Julian Robertson has donated $5.3 million to establish a new institute in New Zealand for research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean’s role in climate change.

    The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute was launched by Prime Minister John Key last night at Premier House.

    It will operate as a public-private partnership.

    The institute will be closely aligned to the crown entity Antarctic New Zealand and its chairman, Rob Fenwick, will chair the institute as well.

    Mr Fenwick said he expected Government projects through the Crown research institute and universities would be strengthened by collaboration with Antarctic Research Institute projects.

    “The international science community believes what happens on the Antarctic continent over the next 50 years will be critical in predicting the human impacts of climate change.”

  5. Bathurst win their appeal against Forest and Bid to mine coal at Denniston, without “climate change” appearing in the considerations

  6. Tim Groser may get job at WTO

    Nice work mate.

    Send us a postcard?

  7. Power Shift 2012 is coming to Auckland!

    Join the biggest youth climate summit New Zealand has ever seen! Power Shift will be part conference, part festival, part workshop and part celebration of the power of hundreds of young people to change the world. Are you in?
    Manaaki whenua, manaaki tangata, haere whakamua

    7-9 Dec 2012

    Key speakers include

    Auckland mayor the Honourable Len Brown
    Actress and Activist Lucy Lawless
    Founder of Bill McKibben (via video conference)
    Dunedin City Council’s youngest councillor Jinty MacTavish
    Young 350 Pacific organizer from Samoa Brianna Fruean
    Young Pacific climate change activist from the Soloman Islands Christina Ora, who famously told world leaders “you have negotiated all my life, you cant tell me you need more time”
    Director of Carbon Partnership and award winning (ex-) lecturer from Victoria University Sean Weaver
    Lawyer and activist from Te Whanau a Apanui Dayle Takitimu
    Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency CEO Mike Underhill
    Inspiring members of the Power Shift crew

    Plus some “old codgers” heckling from the back, perhaps?

  8. Richard C (NZ) on December 9, 2012 at 9:06 am said:

    Global warming to blame for Hobsonville twister?

    Scientists are warning that weather events like the devastating tornado that struck Auckland yesterday may be a symptom of global warming.

    I suppose it was inevitable that a link would be made however tenuous (“like”, “may”).

  9. If they want to stick to this story then maybe we should apply for money from the US, under this new fund just agreed at Doha

    COP 18 voted just minutes ago to create a “Doha Climate Gateway” and agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. remains out of the protocol, now joined by Russia, Japan and Canada.

    COP 18 inserted a “Loss & Damage Mechanism” into the final text which would require developed countries like the U.S. to pay poor nations for climate damages supposedly resulting from extreme weather events.

  10. Peter Whitmore: Immediate action needed to reduce carbon emissions

    Getting our emissions down to 1990 levels is only the first small step in what we need to achieve. Internationally targets as high as an 80 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2050 have been put forward. Our Government has already raised the possibility of agreeing to targets of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (subject to a raft of conditions) and of 50 per cent below by 2050.


    Meanwhile, former United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer recently said he believes the European Union needs to quickly boost its carbon price to about €150 ($240) a tonne if it is to meet its objective of reducing emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Compared to this, present New Zealand pricing seems to be in make-believe land.

    The only thing in make-believe land is this article. A carbon price of $240 and emissions NZ reduced by 10 to 20 percent of 1990 levels within the next 7 years.

    What is this guy smoking? According to his bio, he has a background in engineering and economics.

  11. Richard C (NZ) on February 8, 2013 at 9:18 am said:

    $1.6m for international climate science initiative

    The Ministry for Primary Industries has announced the funding and says the money will go towards agricultural greenhouse gas research.

    New Zealand’s scientists have until 27 March to submit research ideas. However, in order for their projects to be funded they will need to be collaborating with scientists from at least two other nations.

    The ministry says the inter-governmental initiative is all about breaking down the barriers of climate science by getting scientists from different countries working together.

    It says the challenge of growing more food, and developing more climate-resilient food systems, without growing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture requires a global strategic approach.

    Twenty-one European countries, as well as New Zealand, Canada and the United States, are members of the joint science initiative.$1-point-6m-for-international-climate-science-initiative

  12. Russel Norman overjoyed at Solid Energy failure

    Green Party co-leader Dr Russel Norman said today that Solid Energy’s troubles were “the best possible result under the circumstances.”

    “As a Green Party, we’ve been trying to put an end to mining, and especially coal mining for as long as we’ve been in existence.”

    “Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources in use, so to have it become uneconomical to extract is really a gift for not just the Greens, but all the peoples and tamariki of Aotearoa”.

    Asked about the loss of jobs on the West Coast, Dr. Norman said: ”There is no job crisis on the West Coast. Only an Imagination Crisis. They are sitting on some of the most unspoiled parts of the country, and it is time they start thinking sustainable eco tourism, organic farming and revitalising the Arts such as sculpture, painting and poetry.”

    Dr. Norman said he’d like to congratulate the Government for a job well done, and challenged John Key to continue economic policies that would result in other planet destroying industries, such as dairy farming, to fail also.

    The comments are a laugh

  13. Note that this is a spoof article, but it is so close to the truth it hurts

  14. Mike Jowsey on February 27, 2013 at 5:06 pm said:

    Thanks Andy! Cheered me up reading those comments. And this one is just as good, about the supreme court dismissing the Maori case against state asset sales.

  15. Mike – funny seeing Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury play a cameo role in that Twitter exchange

    I don’t know if you ever watched “Citizen A” on Stratos, but it was a class act with Bomber introducing WhaleOil as a “Far Right Storm Blogger”, and then Cam cozied up to all the lefties on the panel and completely ignored Bomber. It was priceless TV

    This is a classic spoof too.

    “Martyn Bradbury Realty”.
    “Consistently in the top 100% of agents”

  16. Climate change in coal consents?

    The Supreme Court is being asked to determine whether climate change should be considered when coal mining companies apply for resource consent. It comes after both the Environment Court and the High Court ruled that climate change isn’t part of coal mining consents.
    Everyone involved in the argument accepts coal is a pollutant that contributes to climate change. What’s in dispute is whether Parliament intended climate change to be ignored when it comes to coal mining under the Resource Management Act.
    “It is bizarre if New Zealand’s foremost environmental statute cannot consider the most serious environmental threat to humanity and to the planet,” says West Coast Environment Network member Jeanette Fitzsimons.

    Read more:

  17. English leading debate on Climate Change
    Matthew Hooton

    (This will get the warmistas choking on their organic muesli )

    Alarmist prophecies

    Mr English’s comments were in the context of climate change.

    Regular readers will know I am one who doubts the more alarmist prophecies.

    In my view, climate change has a touch of the Salem witch trials. Whatever happens is presented as evidence for the hypothesis.

    Moreover, it is too easy to see how the issue could suffer from inflation. If Professor A has a model suggesting sea-level rises of, say, 2 metres, Professor B with a model suggesting only 1.8 metres is not going to get any media attention.

    It’s Professor C with a new 2.2 metre forecast who will get the attention of the university’s PR department and wind up being interviewed on some deeply earnest programme on PBS, MSNBC or Radio NZ.

    Nevertheless, I accept I am in the minority. A majority of those who style themselves as climate scientists believe the world is warming – except for where climate change is making it colder – and the seas are rising.

    A majority of governments formally agree – unsurprisingly given any poll will agree too.

    The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is considered the authority, although anyone who bothers to read what it says will learn it forecasts far more modest and manageable temperature and sea-level rises than those touted by multinational climate-change alarmists such as Greenpeace.

  18. Richard C (NZ) on March 16, 2013 at 6:33 pm said:

    Poor Simon there at #9, doing his whack-the-standstill best.

  19. James Renwick on Q&A

    Lack of govt leadership on climate change – Renwick

    One of the country’s leading climate scientists, Dr James Renwick, has criticised the government for a lack of leadership on adaptation around climate change.

    Dr Renwick told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that farmers need prepare for a drier climate in future, adding: “I think the government does have policy around adaptation, but I think, yeah, there could be more political leadership on this issue.”

    He also said that New Zealand needed to opt f or more sustainability, lower intensity and lower stocking rates in order to cope with the change in weather patterns. “The present intensification of farming and dairying, in particular, doesn’t look very sustainable, given the way the climate’s likely to change.”

    Dr Renwick told the programme that global warming was the only explanation for the drought, saying the average around which temperatures vary is changing and will be hotter over time.

    “So what we call a very warm year now will be a cold year in 50 or 60 years’ time. What we’d call a dry summer now will be getting closer to the normal summer in another 50 to 100 years’ time.”

    [Emphasis added – AS]

  20. Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 10:46 am said:

    Uses “yeah” a lot – like a yobbo in the pub. or a stoned hippie.

    I wonder what “the only explanation” for the rain is?

  21. Stoned hippy? That would explain the shirt

  22. Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 11:56 am said:

    Your future weather: A daunting forecast

    Dr James Renwick

    “The AR5 is hugely significant for New Zealanders, and for all nations – it is the one best resource for our present understanding of climate change.”

    He described climate change as the biggest issue facing humanity, with political and social responses urgently required.

    Professor David Frame

    Professor Frame saw the international post-2020 climate change regime as being “absolutely fundamental” to tackling the problem.

    “Climate policy has to mature, and fast. Climate change is a long-term issue, so we should plan for a sustained, global response over several decades.”

    “Given that climate policies are only effective if they can command electoral support, I think it’s important that climate initiatives become a mainstream part of other policies, rather than as radical social experiments.”

    Dr Simon Lamb

    “Temperature records show that this is one of the fastest warming places on the planet, but these results have been contested by some climate sceptics.

    “Yet, you only have to talk to the local inhabits – for example, the Sami people of northern Norway – to realise that they know it is warming rapidly from their own observations.”

    # # #

    All oblivious to any other scenario.

  23. Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 12:05 pm said:

    The shirt does rule out pub yobbo and delinquent teenager. Not really hippie either. Maybe we’re talking 70s retro guy (favs: music Hot August Night, film Heat).

  24. Richard C (NZ) on March 20, 2013 at 10:30 am said:

    Gareth Renowden displaying total iincomprehension of the actual processes of planetary enthalpy and thermal inertia:-

    From: “The Other Side Of The Story” – [They got that right at least]

    “The bad news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It will take around 30 years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of all the extra greenhouse gases. In other words, continued warming cannot be avoided.”

    Yes there’s a lag built in to the system but not the one Gareth thinks, he’s about 40 to 50 years too late. Temperatures have already stabilised over the 21st century, contrary to Gareth’s other-worldly perspective, because they lagged late 1980s solar change by 8 – 20 yrs via the solar => ocean heat sink => atmosphere/space process,

    So paraphrasing for the real world:-

    “The [good (but not really)] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

    These guys are just looking more and more loopy every day now.

  25. I’m guessing that me responding in comments there won’t be welcomed.
    Don’t know why; it’s just a hunch I have

  26. Richard C (NZ) on March 20, 2013 at 11:00 am said:

    I’ve submitted a comment:-

    richardcfromnz says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    March 20, 2013 at 10:56 am

    Paraphrasing for the real world:-

    “The [good] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

  27. Good luck with that. The one comment so far has this nugget

    We are headed into completely unknown territory as far as climate goes. But a pragmatic assessment puts the Earth at largely uninhabitable some time between 2040 and 2080.

    Cheerful lot aren’t they?

    EDIT – I see your comment is through. Bring on the trolls.

  28. Richard C (NZ) on March 31, 2013 at 5:23 pm said:

    Gluckman appears to letting climate change slip quietly into oblivion. It’s at the bottom of the list of “issues” and not one of his blog posts back to October 20, 2011 addresses “the greatest moral issue of our time” from what I can see.

    There’s been no update to the ‘Climate change’ page since Thursday, 13 August 2009.

  29. Meanwhile the UK has appointed yet another Chief Scientist who has no background in climate change or Earth Sciences whatsoever

  30. Richard C (NZ) on April 20, 2013 at 4:00 pm said:

    Just to highlight mind-numbed denial of the existence of certain natural phenomena by the Hot Topic eco-fascist faithful (e.g. bill in particular):-

    ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

    It reads like something out of science fiction: an active underwater volcano, a team of international experts – and a giant drill.

    To scientists, the Brothers Volcano represents the world’s best opportunity to understand how magmatic hydrothermal systems work within submarine volcanos.

    The volcano, 400km northeast of White Island, is perhaps the best mapped and understood submarine volcano known to science.

    Three kilometres wide and with a highest peak 1.2km below sea level, Brothers is the most hydrothermally active of all the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc – itself arguably the most active chain of submarine volcanoes in the world.

    It continually throws up dark, metal-rich plumes of dissolved minerals which, when hitting cold seawater, precipitate out and gather on the sea floor.

    As this reaction occurs it can also build “chimneys” rich in metals above the vents.

    One of two vent fields that sharply contrast in their chemistry is responsible for large mineral deposits of copper and gold.

    By drilling into the volcano, scientists hope to unlock the secrets of its magma chamber, test computer models of its sea floor hydro-thermal plumbing, find out about the transport of precious metals inside the volcano, and assess diversity of microbial life within the volcano.

    # # #

    In bill’s mind, the undersea Brothers Volcano does not actually exist.

  31. ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

    This is a quote, but what is the reference, please? Ah, I see, the reference comes last. Then, your comments follow “# # #”. Confusing.

  32. Some great events coming your way for the climate enthusiasts:

    NZ Climate Change Conference, June 4-5 Palmerston North

    Kindly sponsored by the NZ taxpayer (hey, thanks for the money guys!)

    Plus (wait there’s more!) a one day workshop organised by the Orthodox Church of Modern Day Warmists

    I have my registration already, for the latter, see here:

  33. Rodney Hide in the NBR

    “Faith, not facts, drive global warming”

    Has a good dig at Renwick

  34. Andy on June 4, 2013 at 11:57 am said:

    MRP windfarm consent finally granted

    Mighty River Power today announced its been granted a final resource consent to build a wind farm near Dannevirke, but said it won’t start building for at least three years.

    The 310 megawatt farm, which consists of 53 turbines in the Puketoi Range, originally got consent last year, but remained subject to appeal. All three appellant submissions have since been withdrawn.

    In conjunction with the Turitea site near Palmerston North, it gives Mighty River Power the option for up to 490Mw of wind capacity.

    However, in its update to the market, the recently listed firm said it was unlikely to start any new generation projects in the next three to five years, mostly due to an over-construction of gas, wind and geothermal power stations over the past decade.

  35. Andy on June 6, 2013 at 8:17 pm said:

    The NZ Green Party one day conference on climate change that occurred today will be streamed here for those interested

  36. Andy on June 9, 2013 at 11:47 am said:

    Particularly this bit

    It points to Britain’s target of a 34 percent cut by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Rather than the current signalled target of a 50 percent cut from 1990 levels by 2050, New Zealand should target a 90 percent cut, the paper says.

  37. Andy on June 27, 2013 at 2:48 pm said:

    “Scientist warns of more extreme flood events”

    Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned.

    Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate.

    Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.

    At this point in time, both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.

    “Some are arguing that we are already committing our atmosphere and our climate to a time that we haven’t seen for three million years, which saw the loss of those ice sheets,” said Professor Naish, speaking in Hobart at the first joint conference between Antarctica New Zealand and the Australian Antarctic Division.


  38. Mike Jowsey on June 28, 2013 at 12:29 am said:

    OMG! It could be, with a 95% certitude, that the Planet, according to our trillion-dollar computer models, has reached an academic tipping point, and IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

    (btw, send more money NOW)

  39. Andy on July 6, 2013 at 2:16 pm said:

    A state-owned electricity company on Thursday received the go-ahead to build what could be New Zealand’s largest wind farm just north of the capital, Wellington.

    A statement from Genesis Energy said it had no immediate plans to start construction after the country’s Environment Court confirmed resource consents for 286 turbines with a potential total generating capacity of 860 megawatts.

    Genesis Energy chief executive Albert Brantley said in the statement that sustainable energy options of the scale of the proposed Castle Hill Wind Farm were “essential for the future of New Zealand’s energy generation.”

    “These consents are about being prepared for the future. They will provide Genesis Energy the ability to respond to the changing needs of New Zealanders, our customers, when we need to,” Brantley said.

    Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges welcomed the Environment Court decision, saying the wind farm could power around 370,000 homes.

    “This is a major boost to our continued confidence in renewables. It shows that companies are clearly willing to invest in progressing cost-effective options to meet New Zealand’s future electricity needs,” Bridges said in a statement.

    Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy support from the government, he said.

    The project would bring the total amount of consented renewable electricity generation capacity throughout New Zealand to well over 4,000 megawatts, enough to meet almost 30 years of demand.

    “It is projects like this that ensure we are well on our way to achieving our 90 percent renewable electricity target by 2025. I am confident that the majority of electricity generating capacity to be built over coming years will be renewable,” Bridges said.

  40. Richard C (NZ) on July 6, 2013 at 5:58 pm said:

    >”Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy support from the government, he [Simon Bridges] said”

    Weasel words.

  41. Andy on July 6, 2013 at 8:13 pm said:

    Presumably the viability of this project will be determined by its new shareholders.

  42. Richard C (NZ) on July 7, 2013 at 10:11 am said:

    Yes, but its relative viability relies on the carbon tax (ETS) levied by Bridges’ and preceding govts on some of its competitors. Not as viable, and maybe not viable at all, without it.

    Still, worse in Australia:

    “Carbon is now our single largest cost” – Russell Skelton, managing director of Macquarie Generation.

  43. Andy on July 8, 2013 at 11:30 am said:

    $10m freeze on global warming

    The Government has proposed cutting $10 million in funding for climate change research in a move described as disheartening for New Zealand’s highly capable climate scientists.

    Treasury documents showed that Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy has recommended scaling back funding for Climate Change Research Grants by $2 million in the next financial year, $3.75 million in 2014/15 and $4.25 million in 2015/16.

    This would reduce the pool of funding from nearly $10 million a year to $4.5 million a year by 2016.

  44. Richard C (NZ) on July 30, 2013 at 8:03 pm said:

    ‘Hamilton engineer helps design frost stopper’


    A new machine developed in part by a Hamilton engineer could solve a multimillion-dollar problem for New Zealand’s horticulture and viticulture industry.

    Called the Heat Ranger, it pushes warm air onto crops to prevent frost damage.

    Hamilton engineer Fred Phillips helped design the machine after the concept was developed by Canterbury farmer Bruce Koller.

    The blackcurrant grower had suffered three seasons of crippling, out-of-season frosts and was desperate for a solution.


    “He was unsure what the Heat Ranger would retail for, but it would be at least six figures.”

  45. Mike Jowsey on July 31, 2013 at 6:29 pm said:

    With cooler climate predictions becoming more frequent, and with the late frosts last year (7-Nov), this sort of machinery is much needed. Would be ideal for my cherries, but alas, six figures counts me out. Unless I get that cheque from big oil…..

  46. Richard C (NZ) on July 31, 2013 at 7:15 pm said:

    >”Would be ideal for my cherries”

    At a wind speed of 150kmh, 120m range, and discharge height about 4m (going by photo), I got the impression that the unit would be used across (over) several rows at a time in both directions for blueberries say. But I didn’t think that setup would be ideal for cherries, aren’t they about that height? If so the unit would just be blasting the nearest trees rather than flowing past.

    Wouldn’t the discharge height need to be near ground level for the air to be pushed through (under) several cherry tree rows (imagine the unit upside down for that)?

    I’m ignoring cost of course.

  47. Mike Jowsey on July 31, 2013 at 7:53 pm said:

    You might be right. Tree canopy is 5 metres. Would like to see it in action.

    (Gotta love that LPG releasing its CO2 and causing global warming all at once!)

  48. That will require a detailed read over the next few days

    It’s not all bad though.
    e.g Page 14

    Increased yield from rising CO2 fertilisation is likely
    to benefit the forestry industry by 2040 and beyond,
    by increasing growth rates of radiata pine.

    Gosh, that old “denier canard” CO2 = plant food getting trotted out again

  49. The summary suggests we need “further research”, several times, in fact

    Sort of a sales pitch, I would say

  50. The part on climate sensitivity seems very suspect – ‘The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments. Recent estimates do not significantly affect conclusions on the likely future trajectory for the planet and the likely broad time scale of expected changes, given the magnitude of the challenge of emissions reduction.’

  51. This deserves a thorough fisking.

    I think Bishop Hill have run a number of posts on this topic recently. Recent estimates of climate sensitivity are lower than the IPCC ones. Recent studies use empirical data to estimate TCS at around 1.3 degrees C and ECS at or below 2 degrees C.

    However, the “bigger picture” is that we have models and paleoclimatic studies.

    The latter have a lot of uncertainty, and are thus poorly constrained. The former are, well, models

  52. The section on Climate Sensitivity is just waffle.
    This is the central question to the whole issue, and they wave it away and refer to “discussions in the lay press”

  53. Richard C (NZ) on August 1, 2013 at 3:22 pm said:

    Cheers Magoo.

    >[Foreword, page 1] “It will be necessary for New Zealand to address a number of challenges that have both a scientific and value component. These include:…………• What are the costs and benefits of adaptation or mitigation compared with other priorities?”

    The “other” Andy asked about this wrt a NZ equivalent of Monckton’s cost/benefit in that thread. Gluckman has neglected to point out that cost/benefit analysis is not just adaption/mitigation compared to other priorities but that it should also be compared to do-nothing-until-needed which Monckton calculates as around 50x less expensive than adaption/mitigation.

    21st century models vs observations failure doesn’t get a mention on page 7, “reasonable agreement” apparently:

    >”The best available comparisons between climate models suggest that models respond to the historical combination of natural and anthropogenic forcings in reasonable agreement with observations….”

    I wonder if Gluckman knows this evidence (model obs/hotspot failure) is being contested in the US Supreme Court (SLF EPA Endangerment Finding petition)?

    “Pause/hiatus” on page 5:

    >”The reported recent ‘hiatus’ in the rate of rise of temperature does not signal that climate
    change has ‘stopped’ or is no longer a concern.”

    But the fact is that atmospheric warming has stopped Sir Peter (and what reason is there for it to resume exactly?) and because it’s the major component of what people perceive as “climate” i.e. no climate change for some time now, that has to be a signal that warming is not the concern it was made out to be. And if the hiatus continues or – shock – turns to cooling, climate change (the warming type) will definitely not be a concern.

    >”This is consistent with model simulations, in which decades of no change, or even cooling, can be expected despite the longterm trend of increasing global temperatures”

    “Cooling” expected? But only a couple of models mimiced the pause THIS last decade and ONLY at near-surface, the rest weren’t in cooee at near-surface and none at mid-trop and none exhibited cooling anywhere. And again the obs trend (one of 3 “lines of evidence”) is subject to the above US Supreme Court petition.

    >”The current ‘pause’ in the overall trend is thought to be partly a response to natural variability including a temporary decline in the amount of energy received from the sun, which has naturally cycled towards a relatively strong solar minimum in 2009.”

    “temporary decline” ??? – Wrong Sir Peter, the decline is continuing with SC24 maximum in 2013 resembling SC5 in the Dalton Minimum around 1800. Minor impacts might be a little more evident in a years time (there’s already cooling since 2002/3) but the major impact of this will not be evident until over a decade due to thermal inertial lag. This would be at least early 1900s conditions prior to 1930 if the progression continues.

    All New Zealand, page 3:

    >The midrange of projections is an average temperature increase of 0.9°C by 2040″

    27 yrs for a 0.9°C rise to occur. Doubtful given ENSO-neutral 2012 at 12.5°C is about the same as it was 50 years ago.

    As Andy observes “will require a detailed read” but just a cursory glance tells me Gluckman is out of touch. I suspect that is because he “has been assisted by some of New Zealand’s leading climate scientists in preparing this report”.

  54. Richard C (NZ) on August 1, 2013 at 3:44 pm said:

    The section on Climate Sensitivity is pathetic.

    CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential (let alone purely climatic projections and the contention arising). Thorough fisking certainly reqd.

    >”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”.

    I think that should read “the weight of opinion of our climate scientist advisers” because the evidence offers no such support that I can see.

  55. “”The weight of the evidence, however, continues to support the range of estimates provided by the IPCC in its first to fourth assessments”

    What they seem to imply is that measurements of climate sensitivity, the central part of the whole climate change issue, hasn’t progressed since the FAR was published in 1990.

    So in 23 years of research, millions of dollars of funding, we have no more to say about this topic than a paragraph of weasel words.

    Oh really!

  56. Richard C (NZ) on August 1, 2013 at 4:31 pm said:

    >”CS feeds into the economic models (IAMs) as an input parameter so it is hugely influential”

    This is a major issue in the US in respect to the Social Costs of Carbon (SCC) e.g (my bolding).

    ‘A Closer Look at the Government’s Determination of the Social Costs of Carbon’

    By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger


    Recently, the Interagency Working Group reconvened and made good on its promise to update their 2010 findings. In doing so, they increased their estimate of the SCC by about 40 percent.

    Increased!? How on earth, you may wonder, could they have increased their SCC estimates since 2010 when paper after scientific paper shows that the equilibrium climate sensitivity—that is, how much global warming will result from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—is much lower than most pre-2010 determinations? The Interagency Working Group even recognizes that the climate sensitivity “is a key input parameter” to their SCC models.

    Simple: The updated SCC calculations are made without “revisit[ing] other assumptions with regard to the discount rate, reference case socioeconomic and emission scenarios, or equilibrium climate sensitivity [emphasis added].

    How convenient is that? The updated SCC, which the White House requires to be used in the cost/benefit analyses of new regulations, completely ignores progress made in the basic science of climate change—progress which suggests that the future impacts from climate change are overestimated by some 50 percent.

    And if failing to keep up with the science of a “key input parameter” to their calculation isn’t enough, the Interagency Working Groups makes several other egregious decisions in arriving at their SCC determination.


    Also see the ‘Economics’ Open Thread on SCC here:

    New Zealand has not yet seen what a radical difference this “key input parameter” (CS) makes to public policy as it is having in the US, But we are seeing the failure to keep up with the science of it so heaven help us if/when the economists start using it here in NZ as handed down by Gluckman to come up with the NZ equivalent of SCC (perish the thought).

  57. Richard C (NZ) on August 4, 2013 at 2:45 pm said:

    Richard C2 August 4, 2013 at 1:39 pm

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    0.9 C by 2040?

    That requires 0.33 C/decade starting right now for 13.4 C in 27 yrs time. Given ENSO-neutral NZ temperature has been stuck on the 2012 12.5 C level for about the last 50 yrs that appears highly improbable.

    Maybe the PMs Chief Scientific Adviser should get some better advice than what he was given.

  58. Macros response to your comment is pretty gobsmacking. Is he serious?

  59. Richard C (NZ) on August 5, 2013 at 10:29 am said:

    Might reveal something of his mindset but I certainly didn’t see that coming. My response:

    “Macro, see Table 1: Summary of projected changes (increases are relative to the 1980-2000 average)

    1980-2000 average is 12.56 C plus 0.9 is 13.46. 2001-2012 average is 12.68 but we are starting from ENSO-neutral 2012 at 12.5 so that’s 0.96 by 2040 starting this year. Actually 0.35 C/decade.

    I take it by your “0.033 degrees per decade” that you also find 0.35 C/decade highly improbable?”

  60. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 10:36 am said:

    There was a piece on TV One news last night about rising sea levels threatening low-lying Pacific nations. John Key is at a summit in the Marshal Islands and has pledged $5m taxpayer dollars to building – wait for it – water storage systems as protection against drought. Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink!

    Anyhow, the reporter ended the piece with the exciting news that a major declaration would be made tomorrow regarding climate change which would really bring the issue to the fore worldwide. Let’s hope the declaration would be something like “Global Warming not happening – crisis over”. Somehow, I doubt it – too many jobs on the line.

  61. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 11:15 am said:

    Here’s the link to the news program –

    Article starts at 15:32. Barbara Dreaver gets pretty intense, with no data to back up her claims of more intense cyclones etc. However, it is noteworthy that her prediction of An Important Declaration at the article’s end has been cropped out. Hmmm? Intrigue!

  62. Dreaver makes this claim:

    “Scientists say that global warming is causing weather patterns in the area to become more intense, leading to devastating cyclones and tsunamis”


  63. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 12:21 pm said:

    Ha! I missed that. Lmao. What an airhead.

  64. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 12:28 pm said:

    WUWT mentions the TVNZ article, noting the claim regarding An Important Declaration (which has been cropped from TVNZ-on-demand).

  65. An Important Declaration

    It might be a vote of thanks for the generous sponsorship of Fijian Airways for the conference, with a nod to the matching “gay blue shirts” that John Key and the other delegates are all wearing?

  66. On this topic, the hand-wringers are out in force at TDB

  67. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 2:23 pm said:

    Oh it’s our neighbourhood alarmist, Gareth, with the usual emotional tripe. E.G. “…. certain to lumber them with a climate denier as prime minister, it falls to John Key to act on our neighbour’s life and death struggle.” yawn…. It’s worse than we thought. I left him a wee missive.

  68. and I see you have been duly chastised Mike, for your tasteless and demeaning comments about those poor people in the Pacific that will drown as a result of our evil consumer lifestyles that we refuse to change.
    (Sent from my iPad)

  69. Mike Jowsey on September 5, 2013 at 3:13 pm said:

    Gareth accused you Andy of straying off-topic. LOL. I responded to his obvious double-standard:

  70. Good to see someone is sticking up for me.
    I was responding to this statement, as you noticed.

    A move by Contact Energy to back out of a windfarm on the Waikato’s west coast has blown away hundreds of potential jobs in a move described as another disappointment to a region buffeted by lay-offs.

    Some of my “misinfomation” comes from sources such as these

    “In view of flat electricity demand, current overcapacity in electricity generation in New Zealand and regulatory uncertainty in the New Zealand electricity market, developing the Hauauru ma raki wind farm has become uneconomic in the medium term.”

    In other words, if an incoming Labour/Green government ramps up the ETS and power prices go through the roof, wind energy may become economic in NZ, although it won’t add any value as it doesn’t add any capacity to the grid; it merely displaces other energy when the wind blows.

  71. Go for the wine offer Mike!

  72. It’s a done deal, we have signed, as Ms Drivel writes

    ” New Zealand has signed a declaration on climate change along with other Pacific leaders in a bid to gain access to international funding.”

  73. Prime Minister John Key has welcomed the climate change focus of the Pacific Islands Forum, and restated New Zealand’s commitment to working with its Pacific neighbours to help them build more climate-resilient, sustainable economies.

    “Climate change is a concern for Pacific countries and New Zealand is firmly committed to helping its closest neighbours adapt to and mitigate its impacts,” Mr Key says.

    “Our total climate-related support will be more than $80 million over the next three years, including the $65 million for renewable energy initiatives, as announced at the Pacific Energy Summit in March.

    “On top of that, our support will focus on areas like developing water infrastructure, and investing in clean and efficient energy generation. This will have positive environmental impacts, but it will also help Pacific countries develop more robust economies by reducing their reliance on expensive imported diesel.

    “Over the past three years, we have invested $48 million in our region to address climate change through practical initiatives to help communities and infrastructure be better prepared for extreme weather-related events,” Mr Key says.

    “We’ve built cyclone shelters in the Northern Cooks, supported rainwater harvesting in Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu, and funded a monthly climate forecasting bulletin for all Pacific countries.

    “We have already achieved great results working with Pacific governments on renewable energy. For example, our support has allowed Tokelau to now generate 90 per cent of its electricity from solar power, and we have also backed the Maama Mai solar facility in Tonga, one of the largest in the Pacific.”

    Mr Key says New Zealand continues to work closely with international partners to improve the Pacific’s access to climate finance, including from the private sector.
    “At home and abroad, the Government is doing its fair share to address global climate change. We have set a target to reduce our emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. This target is ambitious and goes beyond what we committed to under the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol.

    “We have also launched the Global Research Alliance, and have committed $45 million to research ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions.

    Mr Key is in the Marshall Islands for the 44th Pacific Islands Forum. He returns to New Zealand on Friday

  74. Another step towards a healthier climate

    Doctors are praising the Biodiversity Defence Society’s legal steps yesterday to stop another new coal mine. The Biodiversity Defence Society filed declaration proceedings with the Environment Court on Wednesday, arguing that Solid Energy no longer holds resource consents for its Cypress Mine. The resource consents for the mine – gained in 2005 – were due to expire at the end of 2012 if mining activity had not begun. Seven years later only a road has been built.

    Dr Russell Tregonning from OraTaiao: The New Zealand Climate and Health Council, says, ‘For the sake of our health, we need to overcome our addiction to fossil fuels, and that includes not opening new coal mines. Every tonne of carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere makes our future that much harder to manage.’

    More straightjackets please nurse

  75. Mike Jowsey on September 20, 2013 at 2:35 pm said:


    Climate Realists- special notice, special opportunity to make your views known.

    Greetings Climate Realists,

    Thanks to the Psychology Department at Victoria University, we all have the opportunity to make our views on climate change known by participating in a survey being run by the Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural research.

    Here is the link to the survey:

    Taciano L. Milfont, Ph.D. is the contact person – if you have any questions, his email address is:

    I think this is a golden opportunity to let the researchers know just how many of us do NOT believe in devastating climate change- I encourage everyone to do this survey, it only takes about 10-15 minutes.


    Climate Change Survey:

    Dear colleagues,

    I would like to invite you to take part in an online survey titled “Climate Change and New Zealand Society”, which has been approved by the School of Psychology Human Ethics Committee

    You can participate in this study whether you believe in human-induced climate change or not.

    The purpose of this study is to examine people’s views about how acting on climate change could affect our society and our way of life.

    To participate in our survey, just click on the link below. If the link does not work, please copy the address and paste it into your web-browser.

    We would also appreciate if you could send this invitation to your own network.

    Thank you very much for your time and help in making this research possible.

    Kind regards,


    Taciano L. Milfont, Ph.D.
    Senior Lecturer
    Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural Research | School of Psychology | Victoria University of Wellington | New Zealand
    Security Code: 74007

  76. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stakeholder Workshop

    The Royal Society of New Zealand together with the NZCCC therefore invites you to attend this free half-day Stakeholder Workshop at the Royal Society of New Zealand, 11 Turnbull St, Thorndon, Wellington on Friday 11 October, 9am – 1pm. (Registration and coffee from 8:30am.)

  77. Southern Alps’ ice levels show sharp decrease

    According to Dr Anderson’s research model, the ice volume loss recorded since 1977 could be attributed either to the halving of the precipitation level on the South Island’s West Coast for the period or an increase in temperature of about 1C, Dr Salinger said.

    “Precipitation actually increased in the latter part of the 20th century, whereas temperatures warmed by a degree so its clearly temperature which has been doing it.”


  78. This would seem to warrant further research. Are they claiming that the Southern Alps have experienced a one degree of warming since 1977?

    Do they have reliable precipitation data from the region for the 20th Century?

  79. Mike Jowsey on October 14, 2013 at 9:50 am said:

    Jim’s gotta grab headlines by whatever means he can – he’s gotta sell his book.

    By the way, Jim, is the gentle warming since the LIA caused by CO2 emissions since 1950?

  80. It is true that the Tasman glacier has had a fairly dramatic loss of ice in recent years. I would be interested in the precipitation data from the region. The Tasman has a relatively small accumulation zone for its length. Compare with the Fox and Franz that have the large neves that feed them, with the nor’west storms that dump massive amounts of snow over on the Coast

  81. Mike Jowsey on October 14, 2013 at 12:40 pm said:

    ‘Natural variance’ unless Jim can answer my question above.

  82. Shame that Jim S didn’t come up with a more original title, since someone has already published a book with that name

    Perhaps: “We are feeling warmer, yet..” ???

  83. The IPCC workshop recently held in Wellington NZ have released the streaming webcast as a playback video.

    It can be viewed using this link

  84. The second video has the first 20 mins or so with Dave Frame talking about climate sensitivity and also the various “irreversible” scenarios that could happen, most of which now fall into the “very unlikely” basket

  85. Andy,

    Perhaps: “We are feeling warmer, yet..” ???

    Heh, heh. Sorry I missed this. I like it, but I doubt Jim will, despite its truth.


  86. Dave Frame –
    ” I am profoundly uninterested in climate deniers. I don’t think they matter.”

    What is a “climate denier”?

  87. Richard C (NZ) on October 22, 2013 at 8:31 pm said:

    DF is right, climate deniers don’t matter because they don’t exist – except as DF strawmen or something similar.

    And DF might look at his own relevancy, that’s in danger of sinking out of sight too. The new HS banner line puts it succinctly:

    If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…

    Get to work DF.

  88. DF seems to spend a lot of time justifying himself to the inmates at HT.
    Not sure why

  89. DF writes again

    Denialists don’t matter for a specific reason – because time is increasingly showing that they are wrong. Time is showing that IPCC is broadly right about the relationship between GHG and climate. [Also, denialists tend to be of a certain age… I don’t think there are any well-qualified denialists under age 55, are there?]

    I guess the longer the “pause” goes on, the more confident we get in the connection between CO2 and climate. Is that how it is supposed to work?

    I’m not sure how being over 55 makes you more likely to be a “denialist” (not me anyway, quite yet)

    Maybe its the years of being fed BS has made the older generation a bit more immune to this

  90. Richard C (NZ) on October 23, 2013 at 12:30 pm said:

    “Time” against “denialists”? Wake up DF.

  91. Some ad homs on Vincent Gray

    Anthony Watts, denialist blogger at has copied and pasted another disinformation article, this time by Vincent Gray from New Zealand (archived here). Vincent Gray is writing at WUWT about sea level and gets lots and lots wrong. Which is to be expected. Vincent Gray has devoted the past few years to his new career of climate science disinformer.

    Anthony Watts seems to think he should be shown respect because he’s getting very old. Vincent Gray is a climate science denier going back a few years now. He founded the science-disinformation organisation “New Zealand Climate Science Coalition” back in April 2006 back when he was a sprightly 84 year old.

    (my emphasis)

  92. Coastal Chch under water with 100 years – report

    Experts have delivered a dire warning that rising sea levels will put some suburban areas of coastal Christchurch under water within 100 years.

    The city council is now making plans for what will be a vastly different looking Canterbury coastline, caused by warming seas, melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and more storm surges.

    South New Brighton, South Shore, Sumner, Brooklands and even parts of Linwood will become water logged if current sea level increase predictions eventuate.

    This is will lead to planned abandonment of residential areas, not too unlike what happened to the worst affected earthquake areas, which were red zoned.

    The Insurance industry says that houses in those areas will over a long period of time become uninsurable.

    Just as well we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property then.

  93. Richard C (NZ) on January 8, 2014 at 1:32 pm said:

    >”….we got a cash settlement on our coastal ChCh property…”

    Great, now you can move to Holland or somewhere………oh wait……not Holland.

  94. We are moving closer to the Alpine Fault.

    One way or another, we will get nailed.

  95. Of course, you cannot escape. General Douglas MacArthur said: “There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity.”

  96. Unfortunately things are not so great for the large number of people who are left, still trying to sort out insurance claims, who may end up with uninsurable homes.

    The report was done by engineering consulting company Tonkin and Taylor for around $90,000 and doubles the projections from the IPCC, claiming that they are too conservative.

  97. Mike Jowsey on January 8, 2014 at 8:42 pm said:

    A good time to invest in cheap oceanside homes…

  98. Some key points from the article.

    Instead of sea levels rising to half a metre by 2115 as predicted by international authority Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Tonkin & Taylor report says it will be double this.

    So T&T are now the authority on sea level rise, not the IPCC.

    The Tonkin & Taylor report for the city council says areas of the eastern suburbs may need to be abandoned in a “managed retreat”.

    Managed retreat means a strategic decision is made by authorities to abandon or relocate properties and assets in the area.

    The report warns if this cannot be done then authorities will have to undertake “forced retreat”

    Vicky Buck is deputy mayor and a committed “warmist”, having started web site and has various business interests in “green” projects.

    Good time to get the heck out of ChCh, I would say, before the “forced retreat” starts.

  99. The Tonkin and Taylor report on sea level rise with respect to Christchurch is here,

    In this, they make the point that current sea level rise around NZ coastlines is 1.9mm per year. They also point out that there has been no sea level rise measured in the last decade in NZ (page 9)

    From here, they go on to extrapolate a possible sea level rise of up to 1 metre by 2100, although the graph on page 7 (Figure 2.1) has the linear rise of 1.9mm/y as a lower bound, and a rapidly rising sea level as the upper bound.

    I am not sure why this report was commissioned by the Christchurch City Council before AR5 was released.

    Based on this report, which is essentially a literature review based on modelled assumptions, people on the east side of Christchurch have no future to look forward to.

  100. Mike Jowsey on April 19, 2014 at 2:28 am said:

    Came across this article referenced at Climate Depot. A Timaru Herald article in 2007 which quotes that ray of sunshine Augie Auer as saying “We’re all going to survive this. It’s all going to be a joke in five years,” he said. A combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin had created the current hysteria and it was time to put a stop to it. “It is time to attack the myth of global warming,” he said.”

    RIP Augie – you are sadly missed.

  101. Mike Jowsey on May 3, 2014 at 10:58 pm said:

    David Kear, former Director-General of NZ Scientific Research, says global warming is a non-existent threat

    The widespread obsession with Global-Warming-Climate-Change, in opposition to all factual evidence, is quite incredible. It leads to unfair treatment of some citizens, and a massive bill for all, for nothing useful. When will citizens revolt effectively against such callous disregard for their observations and wishes, by those who are essentially their elected employees? When will the perpetrators examine the basis of their ideology, and realise that it’s based on unfounded unscientific beliefs, not on confirmed, widely-available investigations by real scientists who abide by the moral standards of their profession?

    h/t Jo Nova

  102. Mike Jowsey on June 12, 2014 at 3:44 pm said:

    “A New Zealand scientist says deteriorating soil quality is the most important issue facing the world today.”

    During the video he says “…with climate change there are many uncertainties, but soil we can measure”.

  103. Mike Jowsey on August 18, 2014 at 2:20 pm said:

    What can farmers do about climate change?

    Apparently the science is settled, so now its all about mitigation. According to some rent-seeking academic at Lincoln College….

  104. HemiMck on August 19, 2014 at 2:50 pm said:

    Hi Mike,

    I was tempted to respond on their Blog but I think the farmers had it well covered.

    But I am curious as to the extent that “The New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre and its many partners” have their nose in the trough.

  105. Mike Jowsey on August 29, 2014 at 10:36 am said:

    Bit of a stoush brewing with MetService (NIWA) being accused of blocking basic weather data….

    MetService made double record profits last year, which would be fine had they not also been blocking the most basic of weather data which is a public safety and general economic issue. MetService say they aren’t blocking data but this week Auckland Civil Defence came out and publicly backed in this widely supported effort to free up our nation’s most basic weather data.

  106. Richard C (NZ) on August 29, 2014 at 2:51 pm said:

    >”MetService (NIWA)”

    Different entities Mike.

    See: Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd
    Annual Report 2013

    Section 20. page 14:
    Corporate Governance Statement
    As a State-owned enterprise (SOE), MetService is wholly-owned by the Crown. Two Shareholding Ministers act on behalf of the Crown – the Minister of Finance and the Minister for State
    Owned Enterprises.

    Section 41, page 24:
    The ultimate controlling party of the Group is the Crown.

    Relationship with the Crown
    Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited is a limited liability company incorporated in New Zealand, under the Companies Act 1993. The shares are held equally by the Minister for State Owned Enterprises and the Minister of Finance on behalf of the Crown. The Crown does not guarantee the liabilities of Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited.

  107. Richard C (NZ) on October 7, 2014 at 8:43 pm said:

    Jim Salinger at The Conversation discussed here:

    Drought, GHGs, ozone., and natural variation (SAM).

Comment navigation


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>