New Zealand
This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.
Climate Conversation Group
Taking the heat out of global warming
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.
Latest climate models v. reality
As the models continue to leave actual temperature readings in their dust, sizeable warming halted about 1995 — although it might resume at any time. It must hasten to have any hope of catching up with the predictions.
If you claim warming continues, we want evidence of continued warming — eminently reasonable. Making us wait for 17 years for that evidence invites us to doubt you.
Claiming that warming hasn't stopped is the same as claiming it has — and both are ridiculous, for nobody knows the future. The best you can do is describe the past.
Click graph for larger version.
High Court asked to veto NIWA graph
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/high-court-asked-to-veto-niwa-graph/
Dynamite changes to raw readings
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/dynamite-changes-to-raw-readings/
Our Statement of Claim against NIWA
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/our-statement-of-claim-against-niwa/
Background to our application for judicial review
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/background-to-our-application-for-judicial-review/
Barrage of misinformation: can’t they read?
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/barrage-of-misinformation-cant-they-read/
NIWAgate now on WUWT
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/niwagate-now-on-wuwt/
Hunter’s extraordinary peroration
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/hunters-extraordinary-peroration/
Banned again at Hot Topic
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/banned-again-at-hot-topic/
Maze of mystery maths — NIWA facing fallout
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/maze-of-mystery-maths-niwa-facing-fallout/
A swelling debate — Chris has questions
And the link was
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/08/a-swelling-debate-chris-has-questions/
Auckland warming is deception
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/09/auckland-warming-is-deception/
Lincoln – a comedy of errors
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/09/lincoln-a-comedy-of-errors/
Gluckman: knows nothing about climate
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/09/gluckman-knows-nothing-about-climate/
Sir Peter Gluckman’s report on first year
Monday, 27 September 2010, 4:50 pm
Press Release: Prime Ministers Science Advisory Committee
Public engagement
I have given over 30 public lectures – both in universities and CRIs but also to the private sector as well. All my significant speeches are on this website [Scoop} and many have been well reported. Most have focused on the role of research, science and technology in New Zealand – why we need to do it, how we should do it, how we should take it to scale. As the year progressed I was able to address initiatives within the sector and to give speeches on specific issues such as climate change. I have been overwhelmed with invitations from scientific societies, organisations, public and private sector groups, universities and schools to speak, join panels or participate in events – I regret being able to accept only a few.
Specific activities
I have written a report on public‐private sector interactions in science, a report on methamphetamine precursors, a paper on the current understanding of climate change, and released an interim report on adolescence. The adolescence work will take another six months to develop to the level that could inform policy analysis. That work has also served the useful purpose of exploring the boundaries between science advice and policy formation.
[Snip]
Globally, there is a rapidly rising focus on the interaction between science and diplomacy. I will co‐chair with Mr John Allen, Chief Executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a committee to get better coordination of strategy in our international science relationships.
Without incurring significant cost to the Office, I have managed to meet with the UK Chief Scientist Sir John Beddington (twice), the Australian Chief Scientist Dr Penny Sackett (twice), senior officials in the USA including President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren and the Chief Scientist of the US Department of Agriculture, Dr Richard Beachy, and with many of their associated officials and offices. I have also met with senior Chinese officials and vice‐ministers, and with senior officials in Singapore. Each of these offer specific opportunities we can build upon. I have also attended the joint science commission meetings with the USA and the European Union. I have been heavily involved with the Global Research Alliance – co‐chairing the Wellington meeting and assisting the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry on scientific aspects. I have attending coordination meetings around the Square Kilometre Array proposal and made representations as appropriate internationally.
I have started a research project jointly with the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology and the Royal Society of New Zealand to identify what the real issues in science education may be. I expect a report by the end of the year.
I have started a process of discussions to identify a strategy to improve the quality of science dissemination in the media.
My goodness, he has been busy.
“I have managed to meet……..President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren”
We should be afraid – very afraid.
Please put protest to proper pinna (Greenpeace)
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/09/please-put-protest-to-proper-pinna/
Observations on NIWA’s Statement of Defence
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/observations-on-niwas-statement-of-defence/
Judicial Review documents now on line
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/judicial-review-documents-now-on-line/
NIWA oddly denies everything
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/niwa-oddly-denies-everything/
What’s left of the NIWA case?
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/whats-left-of-the-niwa-case/
NZCSET v NIWA
See “Court action against NIWA: progress report”
Power boss’ $1.3m top Govt pay
Snow hits farmers big time 05 Oct 2010
Grapegrowers in Central Otago say a devastating weekend frost put them three weeks behind the start of the growing season.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/90334/hard-frost-sets-otago-gapegrowers-back-weeks
Shorter growing season? Isn’t that the hallmark of a cooler climate regime?
Cue silence from NIWA because the forecast from NIWA’s National Climate Centre is that summer will arrive early this year.
NIWA’s prediction should be spot-on because:-
Scoop Sci-Tech
Latest Science-Technology Headlines
From Hot Topic
Imagining 2020 — the world will be what we make it
by Gareth on November 16, 2009
Hot Topic is pleased to join with Scoop and Celsias in launching a new series of articles with the theme of Imagining 2020. We want New Zealanders, as Scoop co-founder Alastair Thompson explains in this introductory post, to imagine what a low carbon future might be like:
The idea is to provide a platform for a collective long-term forecasting effort which considers the impacts of economic transformation on each sector in the NZ economy. If we start by dreaming and imagining our futures, then perhaps we can effectively gain some control over them.
Court action against NIWA: progress report
La Niña intensifies; warm late spring very likely
Thursday, 30 September 2010, 3:58 pm
Press Release: NIWA
New Zealand Herald
Environment
Science
See “Consultation begins on forest carbon measurement”
Friday, 15 October 2010, 2:18 pm
Press Release: Ministry Of Agriculture And Forestry
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme
See – ETS and carbon taxes
New Zealand ETS Fuel Levy – Google Search
Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand,
Climate change
by Brett Mullan and Kynan Gentry
The climate is the result of a finely balanced system, but natural events and human activities can tip the balance. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have a major influence on the global climate over the coming century. The face of New Zealand could change remarkably if temperatures rise by several degrees.
Keep coal in the hole, or green efforts will remain futile
By Jeanette Fitzsimons
5:30 AM Tuesday Nov 2, 2010 – NZ Herald
For 35 years I have been wrong about how to prevent climate change. It’s time I confessed.
For 35 years I have worked to improve energy efficiency – insulating homes, efficiency standards for appliances, better light bulbs, fuel-economy standards for cars and energy-saving technologies in industry and farming.
The assumption was that this would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, it doesn’t.
For 35 years I have promoted renewable energy – solar water heating, solar electricity, wind power, log and pellet burners, bio-gas – assuming that these would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, they don’t.
We would be stupid not to make those changes, which achieve cost savings, health benefits, warmer homes, jobs, more affordable energy, more profitable businesses and a stronger economy. But to protect the climate, we have to change tack. I’m changing tack.
[Fitzsimons cites Hansen and "Storms of My Grandchildren"]
Nasa climate scientist James Hansen has calculated how much more fossil fuel we could afford to use if we were to get back to 350 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: the level that he calculates will allow climate to stabilise.
His recipe, set out in his book Storms of My Grandchildren, published last year, allows us to use all the conventional oil (though not tar sands, shale or oil from extreme environments like that of the Southern Ocean) but coal must be phased out completely by 2030, starting now.
I was speaking to a guy at the weekend who is working on the $100 billion coal project at Stockton.
It’s going to take a bit more than a few watermelons to shut these guys down.
Must be $100 million.
New Stockton coal processing plant as export demand turns down
9 March 2009 – New Zealand’s largest coal exporter Solid Energy is to invest $100 million in a new coal processing plant at its Stockton opencast mine near Westport as the next step in a long-term investment programme designed to secure a further 20-year life for the mine.
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2009/new-stockton-coal-processing-plant-as-export-demand-turns-down?searchterm=stockton
Lignite is worth $100 billion.
“A recent report by Richard Barker estimated our metallic mineral potential to have a gross in-ground value in excess of $140 billion, with lignite alone at least an additional $100 billion.”
http://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/opening+address+australasian+institute+mining+and+metallurgy+2009
oops, fat finger problem, thanks for the correction Richard.
Lignite is $100 billion? Wow.
Doing my best in the ongoing debate that is now just Gandalf an myself.
My latest effort:-
Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
01:14PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010
Nonentity:
“In fact CO2 is like a thermostat” Not CO2 – clouds and water vapour “and the changes we are causing to the concentration is significant enough to cause considerable temperature change” But global temperatures have plateaued over the last decade, so the hypothesized “considerable temperature change” from rising CO2 levels just is not happening. Scary story over.
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Gandalf:
With respect all those comments are nonsense and totally refuted by the the major science academies, and the published peer reviewed research. For example what counts is obviously not short term temperature or heat energy fluctuations but the longer term trend. One glance at either the surface or satellite data shows a rising temperature trend from around 1970 to this year clearly shown in the following graph. Http:/www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
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“the longer term trend”
I agree with this. The Earth has certainly warmed coming out of the Little Ice Age (LIA), but overlaid on that is a warm-cool-warm-cool natural cycle (remember the 70′s “Global Cooling” scare).
We have just experienced a warm phase and are now entering a cool phase. The warm phase will be back around 2050 and probably much warmer than present. This is all natural cycle with no CO2 level correlation.
Economies will have to get used to a cooler climate over the next 30 years or so and the Kiwifruit sector has been the latest to be acquainted to this reality. Quoting from NZ Herald “Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk”:-
“New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.”
The same thing happened in Italy.
So a cooling climate is now having a real impact as opposed to the non-existent impact of an imaginary warming climate.
South America bore the economic brunt of last SH winter cold and so did Britain, Europe, Russia, Mongolia, China and North America during last NH winter.
Time to face reality – get the coal out of the hole.
Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
01:15PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010
Gandalf, you seem to have convinced yourself that skepticalscience is the last word on everything climatic.
To give you an idea of the resources we have at hand, here’s a link to a Climate Conversation Group index. As you can see from our access to climate science papers alone, we really don’t need to run everything through a skepticalscience filter.
Disproving agw
Controversy and scandal
Climate
Economics
Politics
Energy and fuel
ets and carbon taxes
co2
Climate science
Atmosphere
Water Vapour
Temperature records
Ocean and Heat
Solar and Cosmic
nipcc
ipcc science
ipcc organisation
ipcc politics
un
News
New Zealand
Australia
uk
usa
Europe
Asia
Pacific
South America
Africa
Sea levels
Polar regions, glaciers and ice
Global warming
Ocean acidification
http:/www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/open-threads/climate/disproving-agw/#comment-26342
We also have a thread dealing with Radiative Transfer Modelling and Global Climate Models that you might be interested in:
http:/www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/open-threads-as-promised/#comment-28251
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10684627&pnum=6
Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk
8:18 PM Monday Nov 8, 2010
Orchardists growing gold kiwifruit may have had their hopes of bonanza returns this season dashed as they wait on scientific confirmation that a vine-killing bacteria – which hits gold kiwifruit particularly hard – has established in New Zealand.
[Snip]
New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.
Green Party To Host Conference On Sustainable Economics
Wednesday, 10 November, 2010 – 16:13
Sustainable Economics Conference, Friday, November 12.
Green MPs Russel Norman and Kennedy Graham, world-renowned scientist Dr David Suzuki, National and Labour MPs, and others The Green Party is hosting an economics conference at Parliament this Friday to explore how to build sustainability into our economic management, the Green Party said today.
“We’re hosting an economics conference to look at how we can build an economy that works for the long-term for our children and our children’s children,” said Green Party Co-leader, Dr Russel Norman.
“Our current economic theories aren’t working well for us. Economic growth alone is not a useful measure of prosperity. A focus on growth hides widening inequalities in our communities and destroys the natural ecosystems that are the foundation of a healthy economy.”
Some of New Zealand’s best minds along with world renowned scientist and leader in sustainable ecology, Dr David Suzuki, will be attending the conference. National and Labour MPs will join Green MPs to present their respective ideas on economic sustainability.
“The Green Party has pulled together some of the best and brightest minds from around New Zealand to have a green economic conversation right here in Parliament,” said Dr Norman.
“This is a conference about Green economics and Green business. We’ll have representatives of various business sectors exploring win-win solutions, showing it’s possible to make money while saving the planet at the same time.
“We’ll also have green theorists looking at how we can change our economic system so that it doesn’t destroy the planet. New measures for defining ‘progress’ will also be discussed.
“There are smart economic solutions that can improve quality of life and the environment and move the focus away from indiscriminate growth,” said Dr Norman.
“Now is the time for green economics, so the Green Party is leading the discussion of how we can make our economy work smarter by working sustainably.”
From the vendors of NIWA’s UKMO UM climate model.
September 28, 2009 Joe Romm
UK Met Office: Catastrophic climate change, 13-18°F over most of U.S. and 27°F in the Arctic, could happen in 50 years, but “we do have time to stop it if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon.”
“I’m talking about running a high emissions scenario (i.e. business as usual) in one of the few global climate models capable of analyzing strong carbon cycle feedbacks.”
Junk science at its very best.
High power prices cause business pain
16 December 2010
Major Energy Users Group says the Bluff aluminium smelter won’t be the only business cutting production due to high power costs
Continues…….
© 2010 NZCity, NewsTalkZB
High lake levels.
Please explain.
$1 million a week in lost export earnings
NIWA Releases Review Of NZ Temperature Trends
Thursday, 16 December, 2010 – 18:14 – Voxy
NIWA today released a report reviewing its seven station temperature series, which adds to its analysis of New Zealand’s temperature trends over the past 100 years.
The report was independently peer reviewed by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to ensure the ideas, methods, and conclusions stood up in terms of scientific accuracy, logic, and consistency.
NIWA CEO John Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.
“We asked the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to conduct the peer review to ensure a thorough examination by an independent, internationally respected, climate science organisation”, said NIWA CEO John Morgan.
Mr Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.
NIWA’s seven station temperature series comprises temperature records from Auckland, Wellington, Masterton, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln, and Dunedin. The seven locations were chosen because they have robust and well documented temperature records that go back 100 years or more, and they represent a good geographical spread across New Zealand.
Temperature data from the seven locations were first examined 30 years ago by leading New Zealand climatologist, Dr Jim Salinger. After making some adjustments for changes in measurement sites, Dr Salinger concluded that the average New Zealand temperature had warmed significantly during the 20th Century.
The series from the seven stations were reviewed in 1992, and then updated annually. They indicated a warming of about 0.9C over the 100 years up to 2009.
In 2010, NIWA re-analysed the Hokitika station temperature series and published the results to demonstrate the methodology applied in creating a temperature series. Because of the public interest in climate data, the NIWA Board and the Minister of Research, Science & Technology, Dr Wayne Mapp, asked that a full review of each of the seven sites be undertaken by NIWA. That review has been completed, independently peer reviewed, and the report released today represents the results of that work.
“I am not surprised that this internationally peer reviewed 2010 report of the seven station temperature series has confirmed that NIWA’s science was sound. It adds to the scientific knowledge that shows that New Zealand’s temperature has risen by about 0.9 degrees over the past 100 years” Mr Morgan said.
The link to the full report from NIWA is here
http://www.niwa.co.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/108934/Report-on-the-Review-of-NIWAas-Seven-Station-Temperature-Series.pdf
169 pages, pdf
Niwa says data proves NZ is warming
Published: 8:04AM Friday December 17, 2010 Source: NZPA – TVNZ
State science company Niwa has issued an independent report which it says backs up the science used in its analysis that temperatures in New Zealand have risen.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) scientists last year used analysis of long-term measurements from seven weather stations showing warming – backed up by other observations, including measurements from ships – to show the climate change in New Zealand.
But some sceptics claimed the work may have involved “selective” science and the Climate Conversation Group and the Climate Science Coalition released their own analysis claiming that unadjusted temperature readings from seven weather stations with 100-year-plus records – Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Hokitika, Nelson, Lincoln and Dunedin – were stable and did not show a warming trend.
Continues……..
——————————————————————————————————————–
Also in Scoop (Press Release)
NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends
Friday, 17 December 2010, 9:04 am
Press Release: NIWA
NIWA Media Release 16 December 2010
NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends
The next oil shock?
NEW ZEALAND PARLIAMENT
Parliamentary support, Research papers
October 2010
SUMMARY
Introduction
Oil market basics [Instructive graphics]
OPEC
Running out of low-cost oil
Production constraints
Geological constraints
Infrastructure constraints
Supply crunch/price spike
Growing demand
Decreasing supply buffer
Economic implications
New Zealand’s oil potential and domestic implications of oil shocks
Conclusion
The global economy is heavily dependent on affordable oil.
It may seem counter-intuitive that, when oil reserves and production capacity are higher than ever, the future of the oil market appears bleak. The problem is that production capacity is not expected to keep up with demand. That fact leads to severe economic consequences.
To replace the declining production from existing oil wells and increase production, oil companies are forced to extract oil in more difficult and expensive conditions (deep-water, oil sands, lignite to liquids) from smaller, less favourable reserves. The marginal (price-setting) barrel of oil costs around US$75-$85 a barrel to produce. This will continue to rise with higher demand and exhaustion of reserves.
Although there remain large reserves of oil which can be extracted, the world’s daily capacity to extract oil cannot keep increasing indefinitely. A point will be reached where it is not economically and physically feasible to replace the declining production from existing wells and add new production fast enough for total production capacity to increase. Projections from the IEA and other groups have this occurring, at least temporarily, as soon as 2012.
The difference between the global capacity to produce oil and global demand is the supply buffer. When the supply buffer is large, oil prices will be low. When the supply buffer shrinks – due to demand rising faster than production capacity or production capacity falling – prices will rise as markets add in the risk that supply will not be available to meet demand at any given point in time.
When a supply crunch forces oil prices beyond a certain point, the cost of oil forces consumers and businesses to cut other spending, inducing a recession. The recession destroys demand for oil, allowing prices to drop. Major international organisations are warning of another supply crunch as soon as 2012.
The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.
New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.
Clint Smith
Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team
Parliamentary Library
Copyright: © NZ Parliamentary Library, 2010
Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means…….
Greenhouse effect and climate change: a resource document for New Zealand MPs
Parliamentary support, Research papers
2001/09 4 September 2001
Introduction
The Government has announced its intention to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by September 2002. This will require passage of appropriate legislation.
To assist Members in familiarising themselves with the international and local background on this issue, the Parliamentary Library has prepared a detailed paper, available to all Members and support staff on request. This note provides the executive summary from the paper, and a summary of its contents.
• The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon in which certain gases in the lower atmosphere prevent some of the heat energy radiated from the Earth from escaping. The human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and some industrial gases) have over the last few centuries added to this effect, making global temperatures warmer than they would otherwise be and affecting global weather patterns.
• The hole in the ozone layer is a separate phenomenon, but there are a few linkages with the greenhouse effect. For example, some gases which deplete ozone in the upper atmosphere (CFCs) also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, and the trapping of heat in the lower atmosphere by the greenhouse effect leads to a cooler upper atmosphere and a slower recovery time for the ozone layer.
• Average global surface temperature has already increased about 0.6°C since 1860.1 The freeze-free season has lengthened in many regions over 1950-1993. In New Zealand and Australia, temperatures have risen 0.5 to 0.9°C.
• During the 20th century global sea level has already risen 0.1 to 0.2 metres and rainfall patterns have changed in many areas. In New Zealand and Australia, sea level has risen on average about 20 mm per decade over the last 50-100 years and rainfall trends have followed the cyclical El Niño events.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2 has reported new and stronger evidence that most of the global warming observed over the last 150 years is attributable to human activities. If only human or natural influences on the climate are separately modelled they do not fully explain the historical changes, but there is a good match for both human and natural influences combined.
• Before significant human influence, the climate of the Earth alternated between warm and cold periods over cycles of tens of thousands of years (e.g. the Cambrian and Cretaceous eras and a number of Ice Ages). However, since the Industrial Revolution human activity has led to concentrations of CO2 and methane higher than at any time during the past 420,000 years, and CO2the highest it has been for the last 20 million years.
• The world is already committed to some climate change which cannot be avoided, due to the long life in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases already emitted over the last few centuries and the inertia in aspects of the global climate system.
• Over the next century, there is a 90-99% chance of higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold and frost days, and reduced daytime temperature ranges over nearly all land areas.
• If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, the result of 35 modelling scenarios predicts that global average temperature will increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100, a rate of warming without precedent over the last 10,000 years. Sea-ice, glaciers, snow cover and ice caps are predicted to decrease, contributing to a global mean sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 metres over 1990-2100, and intense precipitation events (drought and flood). Tropical cyclones are predicted to increase in some areas.
• The impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poorest people. Those with the fewest resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.
• Rainfall predictions for New Zealand arise from the expectation that cyclical El Niño events will increase or be exacerbated by global climate change. During El Niño events in the summer there are stronger and more frequent winds from the west, causing more rain in western areas and more drought on the east coast. In the winter, the wind is more from the south causing colder conditions.
Continues…….
Did anyone else see this in the NIWA press release?
“What does the re-analysis show?”
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1012/S00050/niwa-releases-review-of-nz-temperature-trends.htm
Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre Awards Contracts
Friday, 21 January 2011, 10:10 am
Press Release: Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre
The MAF funded New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre (NZAGRC) has announced on behalf of its nine partners, the first 18 science programmes that will receive long term funding through the Centre. The Centre’s science programme will accelerate progress in world class research programmes; some of which are already underway in New Zealand and others that will open up promising new areas of research. The total value of this initial investment is $15.5m over four years. ……….continues
This is what happens when “We accept the science” (Nick Smith).
I expect that there will be several areas of research that will benefit (e.g yield improvement), not just GHG emission reduction, which strikes me as a very low priority.
Some of this stuff does look a bit like GM. Don’t the Greens dislike that?
However, it looks good on the bargaining table, doing our bit, etc.
Which ‘climate science’ does Minister Smith accept?
Wednesday, 26 January 2011, 3:03 pm
Press Release: New Zealand Climate Science Coalition
“Minister Nick Smith told the Herald ‘we accept the science.’ Fine. What science is that – the 2007 version (when the ETS Bill was introduced) or the 2011 version?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1101/S00102/which-climate-science-does-minister-smith-accept.htm
Trouble is, he only accepts the science we wants to accept. If he was to accept the doubt in the science and the subsequent shakiness of the AGW theory, he would be out of a ministerial portfolio. No climate issues? No Ministry of Climate Change Issues needed.
That’s a brilliant piece by Barry Brill. Thanks for the link, RC.
Scientists give chilling warnings on climate
New Zealanders have been issued with a stark warning to expect “surprises” by scientists who say they cannot keep up with extreme weather events linked to climate change.
Scientists opened a climate change conference in Wellington yesterday by stating that changes in climate being experienced around the globe were beyond their worst-case scenarios.
The founding director of the Climate Change Research Institute, Martin Manning, said policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future, or definite measurements for how much sea levels or temperatures would rise by.
Almost simultaneously, devastating floods battered Sir Lanka, Brazil and Queensland earlier this year. Professor Manning said policy-makers should start getting prepared for greater risks, instead of waiting for the lengthy process of scientists linking events together.
Extreme rainfall around the world had been more than scientists had been predicting from climate models.
“Society needs to take over from science when we’re talking about global risk management.
Read more…
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4834615/Scientists-give-chilling-warnings-on-climate
At first I thought this was an April-Fool’s Day spoof. But apparently not, they appear to be serious!
Let’s see, just about the same time that the La Nina occurred, the same sort of La Nina that always causes these events.
I’m not surprised he said that. The answers the scientists come up with are just plain embarrassing. Better not to pretend the policies are based on science any more.
The question is, if they are not basing policy on science, what are they basing it on?
Maybe they should talk to Ken Ring about reading cats paws.
The conflation of climate change and extreme weather seems to be the alarmist MO now their other scary stories are not working out.
Much easier to make it up as you go along.
“policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future”
Why did Martin Manning (of IPCC fame) say that? Was it because:
(a) Scientists have no idea;
(b) If all the climate modelers in the world were laid end-to-end, they still wouldn’t agree?
(c) Policy-makers should make up their own numbers;
(d) Seers, soothsayers and prophets are better at this kind of thing;
(e) It’s all pure guesswork anyway;
(f) Scientist aren’t stupid: they can see the wheels coming off this bandwagon;
(g) Don’t just stand there – do something!
Erik Conway (co-author of Merchants of Doubt) was on Kim Hill’s Saturday show today.
I almost switched off when he stated “The science was settled two decades ago”
Other than that, the usual stuff that journalists should only listen to “credible sources”
It will be on podcast eventually if you have the stomach for it.
Do watch Prof Vincent Courtillot’s lecture if you haven’t done so
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG_7zK8ODGA
(HT Jo Nova and Bishop Hill)
what a brilliant tour de force, essential viewing. Clear evidence that the science is far from settled !
An Anatomy of Denial
Ahead of a visit to Auckland, Chris Barton talks to writer Naomi Oreskes about influential scientists who have prevented changes which could improve millions of lives
It’s when she’s asked if she sees any connection between global warming denial and Holocaust denial that Naomi Oreskes kicks for touch.
“I would feel very reluctant to be saying much about that phenomenon,” says the University of California professor of History and Science Studies.
“Other than to say we know denial is a powerful force and we see it in lots of different ways and different places for different reasons.”
More riveting reading at The Herald here:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10722383&ref=rss
Greenpeace to lose charity status in NZ
via Anthony Watts
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/09/greenpeace-loses-charity-status-in-new-zealand/#more-39622
Labour opposition leader Phil Goff will introduce farmers into the ETS two years earlier, in January 2013.
That $800 million would be paid for by making agriculture sector pay under the emissions trading scheme from January 2013, rather than the current 2015. It would also make agriculture pay for its full emissions more quickly, rather than slowly increasing its liability over time.
[...]
A missile system for Navy frigates would also be scrapped.
Labour would also reverse National’s tax cuts for high income earners.
“I’m not knocking people for being successful. Good on them. But I am telling our top earners today that they need to pay a little more to help reduce our debt and get the economy growing.”
Just to remind Mr Goff that 13% of the population pay 50% of the tax, but I digress..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10727326
Isn’t it wonderful to have a whole new tax to play with and make promises about?
http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/agriculture-pay-technology-goff-4183453
Goff promising lots of new Research & Development funds paid for by Agri-ETS.
The “Pure Advantage” campaign has just kicked off in NZ to promote Green growth.
I had a quick look through their website and found some dubious statements fairly quickly:
Denmark is often quoted as a good example of how a country has adapted to the opportunities available in the alternative energy space. However Denmark’s transformation into the world’s largest exporter of wind technology, a USD 9 billion export industry, wasn’t driven by a simple belief in global warning and climate change, it was driven by the oil shock in the 1970s and the resulting desire for energy security.
The Danes themselves admit that they got lucky, as post-Kyoto, as the demand for wind power took off.
http://www.pureadvantage.org/the-big-opportunities/
The Danes are a net exporter of wind power because they sell wind power at pepper corn rates to Norway, at or below the cost of production. They are one of the highest emitters of GHGs in Europe.
Not one fossil fuel-powered station has been decommissioned in Denmark. Wind companies are now backing off on-shore development because of the public backlash against them.
You can leave your thoughts on “Pure Advantage” on their facebook page
http://www.facebook.com/pureadvantage
Note. I am not against all “sustainable” practices. Far from it: I believe it is vitally important.
However, I do rail against those you start using the “low-carbon” brand, especially when they make false or misleading claims, like the Danish example above.
The NZ Herald has an article somewhat critical of Chris de Freitas for not teaching “consensus science”.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10738739
discussed at Bishop Hill
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/7/16/de-freitas-profile.html
Interesting that the Herald should pick up on this now with Monckton arriving and increasing challenges to the “consensus”.
Munich Re insurance of course would hype up the AGW attributions as it has a big stake in green “investments” and vested interest in exaggerating (though it recently got unwelcome publicity for its prostitute parties rewarding top salesmen….). There are some references to their alarmism here:
http://www.australianclimatemadness.com/?s=munich+re&searchsubmit=
Roger Pielke Jr takes them to task too
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/09/munich-re-goes-too-far.html
Pure Advantage:
http://www.pureadvantage.org/
These guys are interesting (worrying?)
They are promoting “green growth” in NZ, yet are very happy to use Greenpeace as a reference.
I left a message on their Facebook page:
Dr Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, made this statement about the organisation he helped to create: “Greenpeace became increasingly senseless as it adopted an agenda that is antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman ” http://bit.ly/gve8rv
So my question is, why would a business consortium promoting growth support an organisation that is “antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman” according to its co-founder?
http://www.facebook.com/pureadvantage
I would lean towards worrying, Andy. On their “Threats on the Horizon” page they show an article in the Guardian by Fred “the Puke” Pearce about how NZ’s emissions have gone up 22% since Kyoto. Looks to me like they are tuned in to the alarmists.
They also show an article by Dr. Anna Thompson who is into ecotourism and sustainable tourism. All good green fun.
My feelings are that these guys are all about “brand” and stuff the consequences.
The 42 Below guy behind this is the ultimate “all brand no substance” product maker who sold his version of ethanol (vodka) to Bacardi for a princely sum, based purely on brand.
Steven Tyndall brought us The Warehouse and all things rubbish made in China powered by our coal.
The green bubble is the next version of dotcom. It will crash and burn with the impending global financial meltdown.
Pure Advantage group links to a NZ webinar-type warmist group called The Climate Show
About 8 minutes in he explains the Pure Advantage mission:
http://www.pureadvantage.org/2011/07/the-climate-show-16-keith-hunter-on-oceans-acids-and-the-carbon-cycle/
Further down Alice’s tunnel we find this on the NZ Government’s Green Growth initiative: http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/StandardSummary____45925.aspx?&MSHiC=65001&L=0&W=green+growth+&Pre=%3Cb%3E&Post=%3C/b%3E
mike,
I am glad you are on the case.
The Climate Show is Gareth Renowdens creation (hot topic)
pure advantage is, from what I can see, a warmist propaganda channel, happy to quote Joe Romm, Skeptical Science and others of the usual suspects. These guys have massive billboards in airports.
we need to keep our eyes on these characters.
A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE
It’s quite a good rant.
Andy – you’ll love this! It’s belly-rolling-laugh-a-minute stuff. Don’t forget to read the comments.
http://lincolnnewsmessenger.com/detail/174564.html
“Connecting the dots – melting ice and earthquakes
“Considering the two recent unusually large earthquakes: first in New Zealand and then in Japan, it would be helpful at this point to look at the story behind the story that has not been explored by our major media. It may not be apparent to everyone.”