New Zealand

This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.

232 Thoughts on “New Zealand

  1. Richard C on October 16, 2010 at 4:31 pm said:

    A swelling debate — Chris has questions

    • Sir Peter Gluckman’s report on first year

      Monday, 27 September 2010, 4:50 pm
      Press Release: Prime Ministers Science Advisory Committee

    • Public engagement

      I have given over 30 public lectures – both in universities and CRIs but also to the private sector as well. All my significant speeches are on this website [Scoop} and many have been well reported. Most have focused on the role of research, science and technology in New Zealand – why we need to do it, how we should do it, how we should take it to scale. As the year progressed I was able to address initiatives within the sector and to give speeches on specific issues such as climate change. I have been overwhelmed with invitations from scientific societies, organisations, public and private sector groups, universities and schools to speak, join panels or participate in events – I regret being able to accept only a few.

    • Specific activities

      I have written a report on public‐private sector interactions in science, a report on methamphetamine precursors, a paper on the current understanding of climate change, and released an interim report on adolescence. The adolescence work will take another six months to develop to the level that could inform policy analysis. That work has also served the useful purpose of exploring the boundaries between science advice and policy formation.

      [Snip]

      Globally, there is a rapidly rising focus on the interaction between science and diplomacy. I will co‐chair with Mr John Allen, Chief Executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a committee to get better coordination of strategy in our international science relationships.

      Without incurring significant cost to the Office, I have managed to meet with the UK Chief Scientist Sir John Beddington (twice), the Australian Chief Scientist Dr Penny Sackett (twice), senior officials in the USA including President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren and the Chief Scientist of the US Department of Agriculture, Dr Richard Beachy, and with many of their associated officials and offices. I have also met with senior Chinese officials and vice‐ministers, and with senior officials in Singapore. Each of these offer specific opportunities we can build upon. I have also attended the joint science commission meetings with the USA and the European Union. I have been heavily involved with the Global Research Alliance – co‐chairing the Wellington meeting and assisting the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry on scientific aspects. I have attending coordination meetings around the Square Kilometre Array proposal and made representations as appropriate internationally.

      I have started a research project jointly with the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology and the Royal Society of New Zealand to identify what the real issues in science education may be. I expect a report by the end of the year.

      I have started a process of discussions to identify a strategy to improve the quality of science dissemination in the media.

    • Richard C (NZ) on October 25, 2010 at 12:18 pm said:

      My goodness, he has been busy.

      “I have managed to meet……..President Obama’s cabinet‐level advisor Dr John Holdren

      We should be afraid – very afraid.

  2. THREAD on October 16, 2010 at 7:35 pm said:

    NZCSET v NIWA

  3. Snow hits farmers big time 05 Oct 2010

  4. Scoop Sci-Tech

    Latest Science-Technology Headlines

    • Richard C (NZ) on October 25, 2010 at 11:30 pm said:

      From Hot Topic

      Imagining 2020 — the world will be what we make it

      by Gareth on November 16, 2009

      Hot Topic is pleased to join with Scoop and Celsias in launching a new series of articles with the theme of Imagining 2020. We want New Zealanders, as Scoop co-founder Alastair Thompson explains in this introductory post, to imagine what a low carbon future might be like:

      The idea is to provide a platform for a collective long-term forecasting effort which considers the impacts of economic transformation on each sector in the NZ economy. If we start by dreaming and imagining our futures, then perhaps we can effectively gain some control over them.

  5. Court action against NIWA: progress report

  6. La Niña intensifies; warm late spring very likely

    Thursday, 30 September 2010, 3:58 pm
    Press Release: NIWA

  7. THREAD on October 25, 2010 at 9:45 pm said:

    New Zealand Herald

    Environment

    Science

  8. Richard C (NZ) on October 25, 2010 at 9:54 pm said:

    See “Consultation begins on forest carbon measurement”

    Friday, 15 October 2010, 2:18 pm
    Press Release: Ministry Of Agriculture And Forestry

  9. THREAD on October 26, 2010 at 6:44 pm said:

    The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

    See – ETS and carbon taxes

  10. THREAD on November 1, 2010 at 8:16 pm said:

    Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand,

    Climate change

    by Brett Mullan and Kynan Gentry

    The climate is the result of a finely balanced system, but natural events and human activities can tip the balance. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have a major influence on the global climate over the coming century. The face of New Zealand could change remarkably if temperatures rise by several degrees.

  11. Richard C (NZ) on November 2, 2010 at 12:12 pm said:

    Keep coal in the hole, or green efforts will remain futile

    By Jeanette Fitzsimons
    5:30 AM Tuesday Nov 2, 2010 – NZ Herald

    For 35 years I have been wrong about how to prevent climate change. It’s time I confessed.

    For 35 years I have worked to improve energy efficiency – insulating homes, efficiency standards for appliances, better light bulbs, fuel-economy standards for cars and energy-saving technologies in industry and farming.

    The assumption was that this would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, it doesn’t.

    For 35 years I have promoted renewable energy – solar water heating, solar electricity, wind power, log and pellet burners, bio-gas – assuming that these would result in less fossil fuel being burned and less carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. Well, they don’t.

    We would be stupid not to make those changes, which achieve cost savings, health benefits, warmer homes, jobs, more affordable energy, more profitable businesses and a stronger economy. But to protect the climate, we have to change tack. I’m changing tack.

    [Fitzsimons cites Hansen and "Storms of My Grandchildren"]

    Nasa climate scientist James Hansen has calculated how much more fossil fuel we could afford to use if we were to get back to 350 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: the level that he calculates will allow climate to stabilise.

    His recipe, set out in his book Storms of My Grandchildren, published last year, allows us to use all the conventional oil (though not tar sands, shale or oil from extreme environments like that of the Southern Ocean) but coal must be phased out completely by 2030, starting now.

    • I was speaking to a guy at the weekend who is working on the $100 billion coal project at Stockton.

      It’s going to take a bit more than a few watermelons to shut these guys down.

    • Richard C (NZ) on November 2, 2010 at 3:02 pm said:

      Must be $100 million.

      New Stockton coal processing plant as export demand turns down

      9 March 2009 – New Zealand’s largest coal exporter Solid Energy is to invest $100 million in a new coal processing plant at its Stockton opencast mine near Westport as the next step in a long-term investment programme designed to secure a further 20-year life for the mine.

      http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2009/new-stockton-coal-processing-plant-as-export-demand-turns-down?searchterm=stockton

      Lignite is worth $100 billion.

      “A recent report by Richard Barker estimated our metallic mineral potential to have a gross in-ground value in excess of $140 billion, with lignite alone at least an additional $100 billion.”

      http://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/opening+address+australasian+institute+mining+and+metallurgy+2009

    • oops, fat finger problem, thanks for the correction Richard.

      Lignite is $100 billion? Wow.

    • Richard C (NZ) on November 11, 2010 at 4:22 pm said:

      Doing my best in the ongoing debate that is now just Gandalf an myself.

      My latest effort:-

      Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
      01:14PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010

      Nonentity:
      “In fact CO2 is like a thermostat” Not CO2 – clouds and water vapour “and the changes we are causing to the concentration is significant enough to cause considerable temperature change” But global temperatures have plateaued over the last decade, so the hypothesized “considerable temperature change” from rising CO2 levels just is not happening. Scary story over.
      show more close

      Gandalf:
      With respect all those comments are nonsense and totally refuted by the the major science academies, and the published peer reviewed research. For example what counts is obviously not short term temperature or heat energy fluctuations but the longer term trend. One glance at either the surface or satellite data shows a rising temperature trend from around 1970 to this year clearly shown in the following graph. Http:/www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
      show more close

      “the longer term trend”
      I agree with this. The Earth has certainly warmed coming out of the Little Ice Age (LIA), but overlaid on that is a warm-cool-warm-cool natural cycle (remember the 70’s “Global Cooling” scare).
      We have just experienced a warm phase and are now entering a cool phase. The warm phase will be back around 2050 and probably much warmer than present. This is all natural cycle with no CO2 level correlation.

      Economies will have to get used to a cooler climate over the next 30 years or so and the Kiwifruit sector has been the latest to be acquainted to this reality. Quoting from NZ Herald “Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk”:-
      “New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.”
      The same thing happened in Italy.
      So a cooling climate is now having a real impact as opposed to the non-existent impact of an imaginary warming climate.
      South America bore the economic brunt of last SH winter cold and so did Britain, Europe, Russia, Mongolia, China and North America during last NH winter.
      Time to face reality – get the coal out of the hole.

      Nonentity (Mt Maunganui)
      01:15PM Thursday, 11 Nov 2010

      Gandalf, you seem to have convinced yourself that skepticalscience is the last word on everything climatic.
      To give you an idea of the resources we have at hand, here’s a link to a Climate Conversation Group index. As you can see from our access to climate science papers alone, we really don’t need to run everything through a skepticalscience filter.
      Disproving agw
      Controversy and scandal
      Climate
      Economics
      Politics
      Energy and fuel
      ets and carbon taxes
      co2
      Climate science
      Atmosphere
      Water Vapour
      Temperature records
      Ocean and Heat
      Solar and Cosmic
      nipcc
      ipcc science
      ipcc organisation
      ipcc politics
      un
      News
      New Zealand
      Australia
      uk
      usa
      Europe
      Asia
      Pacific
      South America
      Africa
      Sea levels
      Polar regions, glaciers and ice
      Global warming
      Ocean acidification
      http:/www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/open-threads/climate/disproving-agw/#comment-26342
      We also have a thread dealing with Radiative Transfer Modelling and Global Climate Models that you might be interested in:
      http:/www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/open-threads-as-promised/#comment-28251

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10684627&pnum=6

  12. Richard C (NZ) on November 9, 2010 at 9:08 am said:

    Hundreds of millions of kiwifruit dollars at risk

    8:18 PM Monday Nov 8, 2010

    Orchardists growing gold kiwifruit may have had their hopes of bonanza returns this season dashed as they wait on scientific confirmation that a vine-killing bacteria – which hits gold kiwifruit particularly hard – has established in New Zealand.

    [Snip]

    New Zealand scientists have suggested a colder winter than normal combined with a wetter spring than usual can trigger a surge in infections.

  13. Richard C (NZ) on November 11, 2010 at 4:10 pm said:

    Green Party To Host Conference On Sustainable Economics

    Wednesday, 10 November, 2010 – 16:13

    Sustainable Economics Conference, Friday, November 12.

    Green MPs Russel Norman and Kennedy Graham, world-renowned scientist Dr David Suzuki, National and Labour MPs, and others The Green Party is hosting an economics conference at Parliament this Friday to explore how to build sustainability into our economic management, the Green Party said today.

    “We’re hosting an economics conference to look at how we can build an economy that works for the long-term for our children and our children’s children,” said Green Party Co-leader, Dr Russel Norman.

    “Our current economic theories aren’t working well for us. Economic growth alone is not a useful measure of prosperity. A focus on growth hides widening inequalities in our communities and destroys the natural ecosystems that are the foundation of a healthy economy.”

    Some of New Zealand’s best minds along with world renowned scientist and leader in sustainable ecology, Dr David Suzuki, will be attending the conference. National and Labour MPs will join Green MPs to present their respective ideas on economic sustainability.

    “The Green Party has pulled together some of the best and brightest minds from around New Zealand to have a green economic conversation right here in Parliament,” said Dr Norman.

    “This is a conference about Green economics and Green business. We’ll have representatives of various business sectors exploring win-win solutions, showing it’s possible to make money while saving the planet at the same time.

    “We’ll also have green theorists looking at how we can change our economic system so that it doesn’t destroy the planet. New measures for defining ‘progress’ will also be discussed.

    “There are smart economic solutions that can improve quality of life and the environment and move the focus away from indiscriminate growth,” said Dr Norman.

    Now is the time for green economics, so the Green Party is leading the discussion of how we can make our economy work smarter by working sustainably.”

  14. Richard C (NZ) on November 16, 2010 at 10:20 pm said:

    From the vendors of NIWA’s UKMO UM climate model.

    September 28, 2009 Joe Romm

    UK Met Office: Catastrophic climate change, 13-18°F over most of U.S. and 27°F in the Arctic, could happen in 50 years, but “we do have time to stop it if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon.”

    “I’m talking about running a high emissions scenario (i.e. business as usual) in one of the few global climate models capable of analyzing strong carbon cycle feedbacks.”

    Junk science at its very best.

  15. Richard C (NZ) on December 16, 2010 at 4:50 pm said:

    High power prices cause business pain

    16 December 2010

    Major Energy Users Group says the Bluff aluminium smelter won’t be the only business cutting production due to high power costs

    Continues…….

    © 2010 NZCity, NewsTalkZB

    High lake levels.

    Please explain.

    $1 million a week in lost export earnings

  16. Richard C (NZ) on December 16, 2010 at 8:21 pm said:

    NIWA Releases Review Of NZ Temperature Trends

    Thursday, 16 December, 2010 – 18:14 – Voxy

    NIWA today released a report reviewing its seven station temperature series, which adds to its analysis of New Zealand’s temperature trends over the past 100 years.

    The report was independently peer reviewed by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to ensure the ideas, methods, and conclusions stood up in terms of scientific accuracy, logic, and consistency.

    NIWA CEO John Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.

    “We asked the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to conduct the peer review to ensure a thorough examination by an independent, internationally respected, climate science organisation”, said NIWA CEO John Morgan.

    Mr Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.

    NIWA’s seven station temperature series comprises temperature records from Auckland, Wellington, Masterton, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln, and Dunedin. The seven locations were chosen because they have robust and well documented temperature records that go back 100 years or more, and they represent a good geographical spread across New Zealand.

    Temperature data from the seven locations were first examined 30 years ago by leading New Zealand climatologist, Dr Jim Salinger. After making some adjustments for changes in measurement sites, Dr Salinger concluded that the average New Zealand temperature had warmed significantly during the 20th Century.

    The series from the seven stations were reviewed in 1992, and then updated annually. They indicated a warming of about 0.9C over the 100 years up to 2009.

    In 2010, NIWA re-analysed the Hokitika station temperature series and published the results to demonstrate the methodology applied in creating a temperature series. Because of the public interest in climate data, the NIWA Board and the Minister of Research, Science & Technology, Dr Wayne Mapp, asked that a full review of each of the seven sites be undertaken by NIWA. That review has been completed, independently peer reviewed, and the report released today represents the results of that work.

    “I am not surprised that this internationally peer reviewed 2010 report of the seven station temperature series has confirmed that NIWA’s science was sound. It adds to the scientific knowledge that shows that New Zealand’s temperature has risen by about 0.9 degrees over the past 100 years” Mr Morgan said.

    • Richard C (NZ) on December 17, 2010 at 10:12 am said:

      Niwa says data proves NZ is warming

      Published: 8:04AM Friday December 17, 2010 Source: NZPA – TVNZ

      State science company Niwa has issued an independent report which it says backs up the science used in its analysis that temperatures in New Zealand have risen.

      National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) scientists last year used analysis of long-term measurements from seven weather stations showing warming – backed up by other observations, including measurements from ships – to show the climate change in New Zealand.

      But some sceptics claimed the work may have involved “selective” science and the Climate Conversation Group and the Climate Science Coalition released their own analysis claiming that unadjusted temperature readings from seven weather stations with 100-year-plus records – Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Hokitika, Nelson, Lincoln and Dunedin – were stable and did not show a warming trend.

      Continues……..
      ——————————————————————————————————————–
      Also in Scoop (Press Release)

      NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends
      Friday, 17 December 2010, 9:04 am
      Press Release: NIWA

      NIWA Media Release 16 December 2010

      NIWA releases review of NZ temperature trends

  17. Richard C (NZ) on December 19, 2010 at 2:26 pm said:

    The next oil shock?

    NEW ZEALAND PARLIAMENT

    Parliamentary support, Research papers
    October 2010

    SUMMARY

    Introduction

    Oil market basics [Instructive graphics]

    OPEC

    Running out of low-cost oil

    Production constraints

    Geological constraints

    Infrastructure constraints

    Supply crunch/price spike

    Growing demand

    Decreasing supply buffer

    Economic implications

    New Zealand’s oil potential and domestic implications of oil shocks

    Conclusion

    The global economy is heavily dependent on affordable oil.

    It may seem counter-intuitive that, when oil reserves and production capacity are higher than ever, the future of the oil market appears bleak. The problem is that production capacity is not expected to keep up with demand. That fact leads to severe economic consequences.

    To replace the declining production from existing oil wells and increase production, oil companies are forced to extract oil in more difficult and expensive conditions (deep-water, oil sands, lignite to liquids) from smaller, less favourable reserves. The marginal (price-setting) barrel of oil costs around US$75-$85 a barrel to produce. This will continue to rise with higher demand and exhaustion of reserves.

    Although there remain large reserves of oil which can be extracted, the world’s daily capacity to extract oil cannot keep increasing indefinitely. A point will be reached where it is not economically and physically feasible to replace the declining production from existing wells and add new production fast enough for total production capacity to increase. Projections from the IEA and other groups have this occurring, at least temporarily, as soon as 2012.

    The difference between the global capacity to produce oil and global demand is the supply buffer. When the supply buffer is large, oil prices will be low. When the supply buffer shrinks – due to demand rising faster than production capacity or production capacity falling – prices will rise as markets add in the risk that supply will not be available to meet demand at any given point in time.

    When a supply crunch forces oil prices beyond a certain point, the cost of oil forces consumers and businesses to cut other spending, inducing a recession. The recession destroys demand for oil, allowing prices to drop. Major international organisations are warning of another supply crunch as soon as 2012.

    The world may be entering an era defined by relatively short periods of economic growth terminating in oil price spikes and recession.

    New Zealand is not immune to the consequences of this situation. In fact, its dependency on bulk exports and tourism makes New Zealand very vulnerable to oil shocks.

    Clint Smith

    Research Analyst, Economics and Industry Team

    Parliamentary Library
    Copyright: © NZ Parliamentary Library, 2010

    Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means…….

  18. Richard C (NZ) on December 19, 2010 at 3:17 pm said:

    Greenhouse effect and climate change: a resource document for New Zealand MPs

    Parliamentary support, Research papers

    2001/09 4 September 2001

    Introduction
    The Government has announced its intention to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by September 2002. This will require passage of appropriate legislation.

    To assist Members in familiarising themselves with the international and local background on this issue, the Parliamentary Library has prepared a detailed paper, available to all Members and support staff on request. This note provides the executive summary from the paper, and a summary of its contents.

    • The “greenhouse effect” is a natural phenomenon in which certain gases in the lower atmosphere prevent some of the heat energy radiated from the Earth from escaping. The human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and some industrial gases) have over the last few centuries added to this effect, making global temperatures warmer than they would otherwise be and affecting global weather patterns.

    • The hole in the ozone layer is a separate phenomenon, but there are a few linkages with the greenhouse effect. For example, some gases which deplete ozone in the upper atmosphere (CFCs) also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, and the trapping of heat in the lower atmosphere by the greenhouse effect leads to a cooler upper atmosphere and a slower recovery time for the ozone layer.

    • Average global surface temperature has already increased about 0.6°C since 1860.1 The freeze-free season has lengthened in many regions over 1950-1993. In New Zealand and Australia, temperatures have risen 0.5 to 0.9°C.

    • During the 20th century global sea level has already risen 0.1 to 0.2 metres and rainfall patterns have changed in many areas. In New Zealand and Australia, sea level has risen on average about 20 mm per decade over the last 50-100 years and rainfall trends have followed the cyclical El Niño events.

    • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2 has reported new and stronger evidence that most of the global warming observed over the last 150 years is attributable to human activities. If only human or natural influences on the climate are separately modelled they do not fully explain the historical changes, but there is a good match for both human and natural influences combined.

    • Before significant human influence, the climate of the Earth alternated between warm and cold periods over cycles of tens of thousands of years (e.g. the Cambrian and Cretaceous eras and a number of Ice Ages). However, since the Industrial Revolution human activity has led to concentrations of CO2 and methane higher than at any time during the past 420,000 years, and CO2the highest it has been for the last 20 million years.

    • The world is already committed to some climate change which cannot be avoided, due to the long life in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases already emitted over the last few centuries and the inertia in aspects of the global climate system.

    • Over the next century, there is a 90-99% chance of higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold and frost days, and reduced daytime temperature ranges over nearly all land areas.

    • If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, the result of 35 modelling scenarios predicts that global average temperature will increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100, a rate of warming without precedent over the last 10,000 years. Sea-ice, glaciers, snow cover and ice caps are predicted to decrease, contributing to a global mean sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 metres over 1990-2100, and intense precipitation events (drought and flood). Tropical cyclones are predicted to increase in some areas.

    • The impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poorest people. Those with the fewest resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.

    • Rainfall predictions for New Zealand arise from the expectation that cyclical El Niño events will increase or be exacerbated by global climate change. During El Niño events in the summer there are stronger and more frequent winds from the west, causing more rain in western areas and more drought on the east coast. In the winter, the wind is more from the south causing colder conditions.

    Continues…….

  19. Richard C (NZ) on January 5, 2011 at 12:53 pm said:

    Did anyone else see this in the NIWA press release?

    “What does the re-analysis show?”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1012/S00050/niwa-releases-review-of-nz-temperature-trends.htm

  20. Richard C (NZ) on January 26, 2011 at 8:33 am said:

    Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre Awards Contracts

    Friday, 21 January 2011, 10:10 am

    Press Release: Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre

    The MAF funded New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Centre (NZAGRC) has announced on behalf of its nine partners, the first 18 science programmes that will receive long term funding through the Centre. The Centre’s science programme will accelerate progress in world class research programmes; some of which are already underway in New Zealand and others that will open up promising new areas of research. The total value of this initial investment is $15.5m over four years. ……….continues

    This is what happens when “We accept the science” (Nick Smith).

    • I expect that there will be several areas of research that will benefit (e.g yield improvement), not just GHG emission reduction, which strikes me as a very low priority.

      Some of this stuff does look a bit like GM. Don’t the Greens dislike that?

      However, it looks good on the bargaining table, doing our bit, etc.

  21. Richard C (NZ) on January 27, 2011 at 8:45 am said:

    Which ‘climate science’ does Minister Smith accept?

    Wednesday, 26 January 2011, 3:03 pm

    Press Release: New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

    “Minister Nick Smith told the Herald ‘we accept the science.’ Fine. What science is that – the 2007 version (when the ETS Bill was introduced) or the 2011 version?

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1101/S00102/which-climate-science-does-minister-smith-accept.htm

    • Mike Jowsey on January 27, 2011 at 11:28 am said:

      Trouble is, he only accepts the science we wants to accept. If he was to accept the doubt in the science and the subsequent shakiness of the AGW theory, he would be out of a ministerial portfolio. No climate issues? No Ministry of Climate Change Issues needed.

      That’s a brilliant piece by Barry Brill. Thanks for the link, RC.

  22. Andy on April 1, 2011 at 9:46 am said:

    Scientists give chilling warnings on climate

    New Zealanders have been issued with a stark warning to expect “surprises” by scientists who say they cannot keep up with extreme weather events linked to climate change.

    Scientists opened a climate change conference in Wellington yesterday by stating that changes in climate being experienced around the globe were beyond their worst-case scenarios.

    The founding director of the Climate Change Research Institute, Martin Manning, said policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future, or definite measurements for how much sea levels or temperatures would rise by.

    Almost simultaneously, devastating floods battered Sir Lanka, Brazil and Queensland earlier this year. Professor Manning said policy-makers should start getting prepared for greater risks, instead of waiting for the lengthy process of scientists linking events together.

    Extreme rainfall around the world had been more than scientists had been predicting from climate models.

    “Society needs to take over from science when we’re talking about global risk management.

    Read more…

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4834615/Scientists-give-chilling-warnings-on-climate

    • Bob D on April 1, 2011 at 10:41 am said:

      At first I thought this was an April-Fool’s Day spoof. But apparently not, they appear to be serious!

      Almost simultaneously, devastating floods battered Sir Lanka, Brazil and Queensland earlier this year.

      Let’s see, just about the same time that the La Nina occurred, the same sort of La Nina that always causes these events.

      Martin Manning, said policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future, or definite measurements for how much sea levels or temperatures would rise by.

      I’m not surprised he said that. The answers the scientists come up with are just plain embarrassing. Better not to pretend the policies are based on science any more.

    • The question is, if they are not basing policy on science, what are they basing it on?

      Maybe they should talk to Ken Ring about reading cats paws.

    • Richard C (NZ) on April 3, 2011 at 6:58 am said:

      The conflation of climate change and extreme weather seems to be the alarmist MO now their other scary stories are not working out.

      Much easier to make it up as you go along.

    • Clarence on April 3, 2011 at 10:48 pm said:

      “policy-makers needed to stop waiting for scientists to come up with answers about trends for the future”

      Why did Martin Manning (of IPCC fame) say that? Was it because:

      (a) Scientists have no idea;
      (b) If all the climate modelers in the world were laid end-to-end, they still wouldn’t agree?
      (c) Policy-makers should make up their own numbers;
      (d) Seers, soothsayers and prophets are better at this kind of thing;
      (e) It’s all pure guesswork anyway;
      (f) Scientist aren’t stupid: they can see the wheels coming off this bandwagon;
      (g) Don’t just stand there – do something!

  23. Andy on April 2, 2011 at 9:47 am said:

    Erik Conway (co-author of Merchants of Doubt) was on Kim Hill’s Saturday show today.
    I almost switched off when he stated “The science was settled two decades ago”

    Other than that, the usual stuff that journalists should only listen to “credible sources”

    It will be on podcast eventually if you have the stomach for it.

  24. Do watch Prof Vincent Courtillot’s lecture if you haven’t done so
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG_7zK8ODGA
    (HT Jo Nova and Bishop Hill)
    what a brilliant tour de force, essential viewing. Clear evidence that the science is far from settled !

  25. Andy on May 3, 2011 at 12:28 pm said:

    An Anatomy of Denial

    Ahead of a visit to Auckland, Chris Barton talks to writer Naomi Oreskes about influential scientists who have prevented changes which could improve millions of lives

    It’s when she’s asked if she sees any connection between global warming denial and Holocaust denial that Naomi Oreskes kicks for touch.

    “I would feel very reluctant to be saying much about that phenomenon,” says the University of California professor of History and Science Studies.

    “Other than to say we know denial is a powerful force and we see it in lots of different ways and different places for different reasons.”

    More riveting reading at The Herald here:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10722383&ref=rss

  26. Andy on May 22, 2011 at 4:07 pm said:

    Labour opposition leader Phil Goff will introduce farmers into the ETS two years earlier, in January 2013.

    That $800 million would be paid for by making agriculture sector pay under the emissions trading scheme from January 2013, rather than the current 2015. It would also make agriculture pay for its full emissions more quickly, rather than slowly increasing its liability over time.

    [...]

    A missile system for Navy frigates would also be scrapped.

    Labour would also reverse National’s tax cuts for high income earners.

    “I’m not knocking people for being successful. Good on them. But I am telling our top earners today that they need to pay a little more to help reduce our debt and get the economy growing.”

    Just to remind Mr Goff that 13% of the population pay 50% of the tax, but I digress..

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10727326

  27. Mike Jowsey on May 22, 2011 at 5:38 pm said:

    Isn’t it wonderful to have a whole new tax to play with and make promises about?

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/agriculture-pay-technology-goff-4183453

    Goff promising lots of new Research & Development funds paid for by Agri-ETS.

  28. Andy on July 10, 2011 at 1:35 pm said:

    The “Pure Advantage” campaign has just kicked off in NZ to promote Green growth.

    I had a quick look through their website and found some dubious statements fairly quickly:

    Denmark is often quoted as a good example of how a country has adapted to the opportunities available in the alternative energy space. However Denmark’s transformation into the world’s largest exporter of wind technology, a USD 9 billion export industry, wasn’t driven by a simple belief in global warning and climate change, it was driven by the oil shock in the 1970s and the resulting desire for energy security.

    The Danes themselves admit that they got lucky, as post-Kyoto, as the demand for wind power took off.

    http://www.pureadvantage.org/the-big-opportunities/

    The Danes are a net exporter of wind power because they sell wind power at pepper corn rates to Norway, at or below the cost of production. They are one of the highest emitters of GHGs in Europe.

    Not one fossil fuel-powered station has been decommissioned in Denmark. Wind companies are now backing off on-shore development because of the public backlash against them.

    You can leave your thoughts on “Pure Advantage” on their facebook page

    http://www.facebook.com/pureadvantage

    Note. I am not against all “sustainable” practices. Far from it: I believe it is vitally important.
    However, I do rail against those you start using the “low-carbon” brand, especially when they make false or misleading claims, like the Danish example above.

  29. The NZ Herald has an article somewhat critical of Chris de Freitas for not teaching “consensus science”.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10738739

    discussed at Bishop Hill

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/7/16/de-freitas-profile.html

  30. Andy on July 20, 2011 at 6:50 pm said:

    Pure Advantage:

    http://www.pureadvantage.org/

    These guys are interesting (worrying?)

    They are promoting “green growth” in NZ, yet are very happy to use Greenpeace as a reference.
    I left a message on their Facebook page:

    Dr Patrick Moore, a founding member of Greenpeace, made this statement about the organisation he helped to create: “Greenpeace became increasingly senseless as it adopted an agenda that is antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman ” http://bit.ly/gve8rv

    So my question is, why would a business consortium promoting growth support an organisation that is “antiscience, antibusiness, and downright antihuman” according to its co-founder?

    http://www.facebook.com/pureadvantage

    • Mike Jowsey on July 20, 2011 at 8:20 pm said:

      I would lean towards worrying, Andy. On their “Threats on the Horizon” page they show an article in the Guardian by Fred “the Puke” Pearce about how NZ’s emissions have gone up 22% since Kyoto. Looks to me like they are tuned in to the alarmists.

      They also show an article by Dr. Anna Thompson who is into ecotourism and sustainable tourism. All good green fun.

    • Andy on July 21, 2011 at 8:12 am said:

      My feelings are that these guys are all about “brand” and stuff the consequences.
      The 42 Below guy behind this is the ultimate “all brand no substance” product maker who sold his version of ethanol (vodka) to Bacardi for a princely sum, based purely on brand.
      Steven Tyndall brought us The Warehouse and all things rubbish made in China powered by our coal.

      The green bubble is the next version of dotcom. It will crash and burn with the impending global financial meltdown.

    • Mike Jowsey on August 12, 2011 at 6:07 pm said:

      Pure Advantage group links to a NZ webinar-type warmist group called The Climate Show

      About 8 minutes in he explains the Pure Advantage mission:
      http://www.pureadvantage.org/2011/07/the-climate-show-16-keith-hunter-on-oceans-acids-and-the-carbon-cycle/

      Further down Alice’s tunnel we find this on the NZ Government’s Green Growth initiative: http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/StandardSummary____45925.aspx?&MSHiC=65001&L=0&W=green+growth+&Pre=%3Cb%3E&Post=%3C/b%3E

      The Government has asked an Advisory Group to look at three Green Growth topics of particular importance in this country:

      Helping exporters make the most of a “clean, green” New Zealand brand
      Making smarter use of technology and innovation
      Moving businesses to a lower-carbon economy

    • mike,
      I am glad you are on the case.
      The Climate Show is Gareth Renowdens creation (hot topic)

      pure advantage is, from what I can see, a warmist propaganda channel, happy to quote Joe Romm, Skeptical Science and others of the usual suspects. These guys have massive billboards in airports.

      we need to keep our eyes on these characters.

    • Mike Jowsey on September 21, 2011 at 12:55 pm said:

      A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE

      If you’ve got such great business skills, and such great business ideas, then just go and damn well do it.

      Don’t cuddle up to crypto-communists like the self serving political chameleon Russell Norman, and demand the government subsidize your businesses.

      It’s quite a good rant.

  31. Mike Jowsey on August 30, 2011 at 6:22 pm said:

    Andy – you’ll love this! It’s belly-rolling-laugh-a-minute stuff. Don’t forget to read the comments.

    http://lincolnnewsmessenger.com/detail/174564.html

    “Connecting the dots – melting ice and earthquakes

    “Considering the two recent unusually large earthquakes: first in New Zealand and then in Japan, it would be helpful at this point to look at the story behind the story that has not been explored by our major media. It may not be apparent to everyone.”

  32. I was outraged to see today that the NZ government has allocated $25million to research ways to mitigate methane production by ruminants. A lot of this money will be spent overseas.

    It would be better for our economy if they spent it on proving methane doesn’t matter, with more likelihood of success.

    See: http://platoflipbooks.co.nz/LivestockResearchGroup/August%202011/LivestockResearchGroup-AugustNewsletter2011/

  33. Pingback: A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE | TrueblueNZ

  34. Richard C (NZ) on October 9, 2011 at 12:26 pm said:

    Three marine energy projects announced

    The projects are a wave energy device at Stewart Island, a cable linking to another device at Wellington’s Moa Point and turbines at Parnell Baths in Auckland.

    Meanwhile, funding has been withdrawn for a separate tidal stream generator at Kaipara Harbour after the company involved, Crest Energy, failed to meet timelines.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/87753/three-marine-energy-projects-announced

  35. Richard C (NZ) on October 29, 2011 at 3:35 pm said:

    ‘Occupy’ protesters to target Auckland banks

    Published: 4:24PM Friday October 28, 2011 Source: ONE News

    Occupy Auckland’ protesters will march on Auckland banks this weekend as part of a global day of action calling for a ‘Robin Hood’ tax.

    [...]

    The group is calling for a Financial Transaction Tax, which is says would end unemployment, stop climate change and eradicate global poverty.

    >>>>>>>>

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/occupy-protesters-target-auckland-banks-4487715

    Must be magic money.

  36. Nats hope we focus on rugby – not global warming
    Richard Boock

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/blogs/an-auckland-minute/5896001/Nats-hope-we-focus-on-rugby-not-global-warning

    Yet another load of strawmen arguments and misunderstanding from an NZ journalist

    Added my 2c in comments, awaiting moderation

  37. Richard C (NZ) on November 4, 2011 at 5:53 pm said:

    Is this old news to everyone else (i.e. am I the last to twig) that “Nick” is or could be lead researcher, Associate Professor Nick Wilson?

    Nick hasn’t turned up lately. It might be because he was busy on a review of Government policy and action on climate change and writing this Press Release, see:-

    “Action on climate change policy falls well short”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00110/action-on-climate-change-policy-falls-well-short.htm

    “climate-damaging emissions” “potentially at catastrophic levels”.is something that Nick would come up with and Mike Palin was his coach for a while.

    Oddly, the study is in the New Zealand Medical Journal: ‘End-of-term review of the New Zealand Government’s response to climate change: A public health perspective’ (by Associate Professor Nick Wilson and colleagues, Wellington) is published this week, available at http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/124-1345/4949/.

    But that’s behind a pay-wall.

    Apparently there’s 140 or more senior doctors and other health professionals (OraTaiao) concerned about climate change impacts on health and health services, see:-

    “Doctors say New Zealand fiddles while the world burns”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00117/doctors-say-new-zealand-fiddles-while-the-world-burns.htm

    As if NZ could do anything to stop the world burning – wherever that’s happening.

    • I hadn’t “twigged” anything about Nick.
      However, I do have a particular bee in my bonnet about those in the medical profession who decide that it is their role in life to become ambassadors for the climate change movement.

      I’m so glad you posted this Richard. Now I have some names that I can address my concerns about fuel poverty (big problem in the UK thanks to Green energy policies), deaths in Africa because of biofuel policies, etc etc

      So far, there is no tangible evidence of human suffering due to AGW. Nothing. Period. Read Roger Pielke Jnr’s “The Climate Fix” for his dissection of the lies in the WHO reports.

  38. Richard C (NZ) on December 10, 2011 at 1:09 pm said:

    Dredged up this article from 2006 by Cindy Baxter who is posting at [Cold] Topic from Durban:-

    Cindy Baxter: Climate of doubt

    3:08 PM Friday May 5, 2006

    The British Government’s chief scientist, Sir David King, has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet..

    In the face of overwhelming evidence that the human race is causing the climate to change, there has been a resurgence of activity of climate science scepticism.

    On Monday, the new Climate Science Coalition was launched in New Zealand. The coalition includes a member of a conservative think tank, scientists linked with the climate sceptic movement, and a former national co-ordinator of the National Party’s Blue Greens.

    Three weeks ago, a letter signed by 60 scientists, including members of the NZ Climate Science Coalition, wrote to the newly elected conservative Canadian Government, pushing for it to abandon the Kyoto Protocol. The letter was followed by another, from scientists, calling on Canada to stick with Kyoto.

    These efforts are the latest in a campaign run by vested interests to discredit climate science and to stop the Kyoto Protocol from going forward.

    But their arguments have little to do with science, and everything to do with politics and business.

    [...]

    * Cindy Baxter is the Greenpeace campaign manager and co-author of the website Exxonsecrets.org

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10380264

    I note that there were no following comments in pre-Climategate 2006 (I know I wasn’t putting my oar in then). I’m sure there would be today considering that she manages to vilify:-

    NZ Climate Science Coalition
    Frank Luntz
    Neo-conservative think tanks
    “the climate sceptic industry”
    ExxonMobil
    George C. Marshall Institute
    Global Climate Coalition
    Dr Sallie Baliunas
    Vincent Gray
    Bob Carter
    Australian Institute of Public Affairs
    Willie Soon
    American Petroleum Institute
    Chris de Freitas
    The Media (see below)

    Sainthood (by implication) is bestowed on:-

    Sir David King

    “has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet”

    Michael Mann

    “major climate scientist”

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    “identified by 17 national academies of sciences as the pre-eminent authority on climate science”

    Lord May

    “There is no danger this lobby will influence the scientists. But they don’t need to. It is the influence on the media that is so poisonous.”

  39. John in NZ on February 9, 2012 at 1:01 pm said:

    Not sure where to put this .

    The New Zealand Carbon Credit market seems to be in freefall.

    According to http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6081834/Carbon-credits-pricing-crashes-and-burns

    “The price of New Zealand units (NZUs) has crashed from $22 in May to about $11 last week, stifling interest in developing carbon offsetting initiatives here, according to carbon market participants.

    The price crash has been so steep that by one calculation, if the price trend continued for another 100 days, the value of NZU credits would be zero.

    The reasons for the crash appear to be the unfettered ability of New Zealand emitters to import credits of dubious quality from overseas, coupled with the recent dumping of international credits by cash-strapped European industrial and utilities companies selling down their stockpiles of carbon to realise cash as the debt crisis worsens, participants in the fledgling carbon trading market say. ”

    BUT THIS WAS ON 5th DECEMBER.

    Prices have fallen since then. According to http://www.carbonmarketsolutions.com/

    an “indicative price” is $13.25 for 30000 NZUs.

    I assume this means for 30 tonnes. Does this mean the price is $4.42 per 10 tonne?

  40. Richard C (NZ) on February 22, 2012 at 7:53 am said:

    University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds

    Published: 6:15AM Wednesday February 22, 2012 Source: ONE News

    The University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds, and its conclusion is they are getting lower.

    The university looked at ten years of data from Nasa’s terra telescope to discover the average cloud height decresed by 1% over the past decade.

    The telescope showed fewer clouds were occuring at higher altitudes.

    Researchers believe a significant reduction in cloud height would lead to reducing the surface temperature of the planet and slowing global warming.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/technology-news/university-auckland-has-had-its-head-in-clouds-4736355

  41. WUWT reports on a claim in Nature that NZ could lose 85% of its glaciers by 2100

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/19/the-end-for-small-glaciers-or-anthropogenic-circular-reasoning/

    • Mike Jowsey on March 21, 2012 at 9:42 am said:

      “They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results. “

      Justthinkin says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:05 pm
      “using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases.”

      Hummmmmm. Looks like David beat me to it!LOL But that extract right there completely destroys any credibility these guys may have had. They used a GIGO model of a GIGO model to come up with another GIGO model??? And they wonder why most people with more than two brain cells and critical thinking skills call them “cultists in the CAGW religion”? Just follow the money.

      tallbloke says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:58 pm
      New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100 say the team.
      Was the team using Jim Salinger’s imaginary NZ temperature record?

      lmao

    • yes I saw that comment from Tallbloke too. NZ’s reputation travels far and wide.

      PS Mike you were pretty close with your earthquake prediction, as Mexico got hit by a 7.4 today

    • Mike Jowsey on March 21, 2012 at 1:49 pm said:

      Hmm – yes, it falls within the broad scope of what Terral was saying, but he was specifically predicting a 9.0 or greater, probably in NZ.

      March 22, 2012 is the day our researchers expect that Earth axis will shift 5 inches with aquifers around the globe and a 9+ magnitude earthquake event that will likely be included among the top ten in Earth history. This marks the next day on the 188-Day Cycle that is part of a pattern of seismicity extending back to 1965 (Mensur Omberbashich April 11, 2012 to Cornell). Other events on the 188-day cycle took place on February 27, 2010 (Chile 8.8*), September 4, 2010 (Christchurch 7.1*), March 11, 2011 (Japan 9.0*) and September 15, 2011 (Fiji 7.3*). The Earth experienced Earth axis shifts of three inches and four inches respectively with the nearside alignments and earth aquifer shifts connected to the Chile and Japan events. The historical precedent established by this seismic event pattern says the next Earth axis shift will take place in March 22, 2012 and will be five inches or greater.

      Source: http://terral03.com/home/march-22-2012-warning

      I take it with a pinch of salt, especially from a bible-thumper like Terral03. However, it’s of interest. Ken Ring predicts 6+ quakes on 23rd & 26th. We’ll see. Take care ;)

  42. Another NZ blog on the scene, with some interesting stuff on Windfarms and earthquake risk

    http://nzwindfarms.wordpress.com/

  43. Mike Jowsey on April 18, 2012 at 8:23 am said:

    It has been estimated that the ETS has cost the average family of four around $750 a year since it was introduced in 2010. The government is now planning to double that cost to around $1,500 a year over the next three years.[1] The change won’t take place in a single step, but will be phased in – increasing by a third in 2013, by another third in 2014, with the final third in 2015. At that stage the average household will be paying around $30 a week in the increased costs for power, fuel, and most other goods and services caused by the imposition of a $25 a tonne carbon charge onto our economy.

    And further on…

    It gets worse. The Minister will have power to ban imports, so as to be a quasi-monopoly supplier. Auction prices will be pushed up to $25 from the current market level of about $7 per unit. On top of all this, the obligation on energy companies will be doubled over three years. In summary, the burden on energy companies is to increase from $7 to $50 for two units. Virtually all of this 7-fold increase is a new tax.

    http://www.nzcpr.com/NewsletterArchive.htm

  44. Andy on May 2, 2012 at 9:09 am said:

    No go for climate change in appeals

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6841027/No-go-for-climate-change-in-appeals

    We can’t use “climate change” as a case for objecting to coal mining in (for example) the Denniston case.

    Gosh, do we see some common sense prevailing amongst our jurisdiction?

  45. Andy on June 16, 2012 at 8:27 pm said:

    Has Gareth Morgen seen the light or speaking what he has always thought with regard to the loony left?

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/gareth-morgan-takes-swipe-green-party-4932325

  46. Richard C (NZ) on July 3, 2012 at 4:41 pm said:

    Gareth Renowden at Hot Topic accuses EXXON CEO of an “intellectually obtuse position on climate impacts” “far from what the science points to”:-

    His conclusion that the impacts will be manageable is far from what the science points to.

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/exxon-boss-intellectually-obtuse-position-on-climate-impacts/

    For an example of what “the science” points to, Gareth quotes the alarmist ramblings of James Hansen:-

    Remember how James Hansen sums up the picture of what lies ahead if we exploit and burn fossil fuels from the new unconventional sources, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies:

    Apparently “the science” and James Hansen are interchangeable.

    If nothing else, you have to admire Gareth’s chutzpah.

  47. Mike Jowsey on July 6, 2012 at 12:14 pm said:

    Scientists concerned about Niwa cuts

    Scientists are worried by Niwa’s plans to cut three jobs at an internationally important atmospheric research station in Lauder, Central Otago.

    New Zealand Association of Scientists past president associate professor James Renwick said the cuts would “spell the end of the world-class climate measurement science programme at Lauder”.

  48. Anthropogenic Global Cooling on July 6, 2012 at 12:23 pm said:

    Looks like the government is about to defund NIWA’s global warming dept.

    http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/government-still-has-climate-science-phobia/5/128384

    • Mike Jowsey on July 7, 2012 at 5:17 pm said:

      Gee I wonder if this will impact their legal budget ;-)

    • Anthropogenic Global Cooling on July 8, 2012 at 9:12 am said:

      I think the defunding, in combination with the govt’s recent changes to the ETS, are signs the govt will slowly start withdrawing from the ETS. Gillard will lose the election in the West Island at the next election and her carbon tax will be reversed, which will be the catalyst for the Nats to pull out of the AGW scam. I think the writing is on the wall & I can’t wait to see the greens and alarmists squealing like little pigs over it – it’ll almost be worth the money they extorted from me to witness their collective gnashing of teeth & howls of ‘blasphemy’ …. almost.

    • Mike Jowsey on July 8, 2012 at 9:54 am said:

      Nice, but a little wishful. I agree with Gillard losing, but I think Key and co won’t want to part with the $550m currently being squeezed out of the economy under the guise of saving the planet. They might rename it, repackage it, but they won’t let it go. Probably do away with the ETS, change it to a tax and call it something like “Sustainability Tax”.

  49. Richard C (NZ) on July 8, 2012 at 2:44 pm said:

    Spring around the corner and Mike’s cherries and BOP kiwifruit at risk of frost got me thinking about frost damage to fruit and frost protection. Not much heard about this recently due to a kinder climate regime but if that regime drops back to a cooler level over the next decade (I think it will) protection systems will make big paybacks.

    Kiwifruit has moved away from helicopters to irrigation since about 2004 http://www.hortnet.co.nz/news/2004/n4810.htm and sector providors have been active e.g. AgFirst:-

    In recent years the New Zealand horticultural industry including the pipfruit, kiwifruit and viticultural industries have experienced damaging frosts due to colder weather patterns during spring and right through to as late as November each year.

    Early fruit varieties such as gold kiwifruit are particularly at risk to consecutive frost events during bud burst in mid-late August.

    The use of growth regulators such as Hi-Cane in apples and kiwifruit are widely used management tools for timing of bud burst and flower initiation.

    While giving the grower the advantage of bringing flowering forward and condensing flowering times, these tools unfortunately also expose the grower to greater risk from frost events. Without some form of frost protection, many growers can be severely set back due to the prevalence of untimely frost events.

    Wind machines will not always work, particularly in more severe advective “cold air” frosts, however irrigation water is a proven and reliable method. Craig has designed many highly effective systems with growers enjoying the benefit of long term crop stability and early payback on the capital expenditure.

    http://www.agfirst.co.nz/engineering/effluent-and-water-irrigation/irrigation-for-horticultural-frost-protection/

    Lots of reading on this e.g. :-

    Frost protection: fundamentals, practice, and economics – Volume 1… http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y7223e/y7223e00.htm#Contents Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    INTRODUCTION

    Overview
    Freeze and frost definitions
    Radiation frost
    Advection frost
    Classification of protection methods
    Geographical assessment of frost damage to crops
    Economic importance of frost damage
    History of frost protection

    Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
    Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999
    http://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/dspace/bitstream/10182/4236/1/frost_damage_in_vineyards.pdf

    Frost Protection in Orchards and Vineyards, Pacific North-west Washington USA http://www.frostsolutions.com/1999_evans_frost_protection.pdf

    And for Mike,

    Cherries
    An analysis of traditional and dwarf varieties and methods, for the Teviot valley, Central Otago.
    http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/PageFiles/1421/Mike-Paterson-cherries.pdf

    Frost
    The critical time where cherry flowers will become damaged by frost begins at bud swelling, which in Central Otago is mid September. Cherries will tolerate some frosting at the flowering stage but the effects of frosting from the small green fruit stage on can be quite devastating, and after petal fall you could lose the entire crop, so frost control will become very important from early October onwards.

    The critical temperatures and their effects at various development stages are shown in the chart below.

    1. The old standard is the lowest temperature that can be endured for 30 minutes without bud damage.
    2. Temperature at which 10% and 90% of buds will be killed
    3. Data collected by researchers at Washington State University Prosser Research Centre and adjusted for Central Otago Flowering dates and to oC.

    • The Grow Otago project has determined that for 4 out of 5 years, the last frost will occur between 28th October and 6th November in the Teviot Valley. NIWA frost recording data at Ettrick (approx 5 km south of the author’s property) has a total of 8 frost readings, ranging from 0 to -3 degrees, for September and October 2002, the last one on Oct 14th. This would suggest that some frost protection would be required.

    Various methods could be used for frost protection as for most fruits.

    1. Diesel burning frost pots at 50/ Ha @ approx $150 ea. These need an inversion layer to trap the heat, and burn 10+ litres of diesel / night.

    2. Wind machines that use an inversion of warm air and circulate it back down through the crop. One machine per 4-6 Ha @ approx $55K for a new 4 blader. Will protect to -2° to -3° and are limited in advection type frosts which are rare, but that occurred in 2002.

    3. Water from overhead sprinklers will protect to -8°C, but needs to be applied continuously, can have negative impacts on the soil and can spread bacterial blast. Costs approx $7K-$10K / Ha for mainlines and pipe work. Sprinklers should only be turned off when ice is falling off or melting away from the fruit.

    So place your bets, when will the last frost be this year at Mike’s cherry orchard (where is it Mike)?

    • Thanks Richard – I’ve read that PDF on cherries – a bloody good reference which I have on my shelf. I am near Amberley, 50km north of Christchurch on SH1. Last year the last frost was on 3rd November. It was a very light one. Last year’s crop was about 60% of normal. Then we got the rain at Christmas which buggered everything! However, we strip-picked the split fruit, juiced it and got a local winery to produce a very smooth and rich Cherry Liqueur – similar to a port, with 17% alcohol. So all was not lost.

      However, back to the frost. As a small boutique orchard (500 trees) the justification of the capital outlay for wind, diesel or water protection is doubtful. Water is out as I am continually fighting bacterial blast (with largely organic methods) so couldn’t afford to exacerbate that problem. Another method would be to cover them with plastic. As the superstructure is already there to hold the bird nets over the trees, this might be okay as long as we didn’t get a late snowfall at sea level.

      We’ll see how it goes, I guess. I have pulled out all my apricots – about 1200 trees. I got 2 commercial crops in 10 years – the other years all wrecked by late frosts. Most years I can expect Labour Day to signal the end of frosts. If we are moving into a colder climate it may mean my cherries go the same way as the apricots. But that’s farming – adapt or die.

    • Richard C (NZ) on July 8, 2012 at 7:51 pm said:

      Heyyy! I’ve just clicked your Gracebrook website link Mike. That’s a new and exciting development here at CCG. Great cherry orchard pics and rundown of the years events http://www.gracebrook.co.nz/orchard/orchard.htm

      Excellent and very interesting – although a tad sad by Update 04/01/2012 after Update 27/12/2011:”The stellas are looking beaudacious”.

      It was sobering to read (only skimmed so far – word-for-word later) in ‘Cherries’ by Mike Paterson, that rain and birds ranked above frosts e.g.:-

      Successful cherry production is all about managing risk. Two risk factors that can completely devastate a crop are birds and rain. Rain covers and bird netting are becoming standard items on a lot of cherry orchards, as it can be the difference between staying viable and going broke.

      I admire your fortitude Mike. Amazing that Cherrycorp failed for want of rain covers after cash was diverted to the Apricotcorp purchase and shareholders didn’t cough up. Your experience is almost exact opposite. It was a shame (to say the least) about your apricots but you’ve survived by cutting your losses.

      I wonder is there frost protection for the cherries that only involves minimal incremental cost (other than plastic)? Maybe.just the orchard tractor circulating might provide enough disturbance and a little heat if it had a small 3-point mounted fan run off the PTO (I think orchard tractors have that set-up). But not a high speed fan mind you.

      Update 29/09/2011 shows the flowering and I’m guessing the start of the frost vulnerability comes right after going by ‘Cherries’. Is this what you mean by “late frosts”?

      BTW, those honeys look fantastic. Would Wild Flowers have honey from your pollinating hives brought in to the orchard beginning of October? If so it might be an “Add to Cart” one day around October/November?.

    • Cheers Richard – thanks for the encouragement.

      I could put up rain covers but would have to modify the superstructure to allow run-off. The area is about the size of a rugby field. High winds (Norwest) can wreck stuff like that so it would be risky.

      Regards the frost, a fan on the back of a tractor is a good idea. I have an orchard sprayer with a big fan on it. Might try that out this year. Critical time seems to be 15-Oct through 7-Nov, when the green fruitlets are starting to appear.

    • Richard C (NZ) on July 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm said:

      Caution Mike. I’ve been reading ‘Frost Damage and Management in New Zealand Vineyards’, Trought, Howell and Cherry: Lincoln University and came across this:-

      Radiation frosts form because of cooling of the ground surface (Geiger et al. 1995). Still air is a good insulator and so strong that cooling of air occurs near the soil surface. The air temperature then rises with height through a surface layer. Above this layer, the temperature declines again with height. The warm over cold air is called an inversion layer, and is very stable with little vertical motion or mixing. The depth of the stable layer generally lies between about 5 and 40 m, with 10 to 30 m being most likely.

      Information of the presence of an inversion layer is particularly important if air-mixing systems (helicopters or windmills) are to be used for frost control. If the inversion layer is not present, or out of reach of the mixer, then using an air mixing system can result in increased damage. Water will remain liquid at several degrees below 0oC in a super-cooled state (Johnson and Howell, 1981; Lindow, 1983). However, movement of tissues containing supercooled water can cause ice nucleation, freezing, and tissue death.

      Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
      Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999

      http://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/dspace/bitstream/10182/4236/1/frost_damage_in_vineyards.pdf

      In view of the risk of a tractor or sprayer mounted fan moving tissues, it would be better to just rely on the radiator fan of the tractor engine and movement of the tractor to distribute near surface warmth.

      Exhaust gases would also aid warmth distribution near ground especially if the orchard tractor exhaust exits to one side and not directly down the alley. I looked up thermal images of tractors and cant detect exhaust heat in the image I found although there must be because about 60% of engine energy is waste heat and going by the temperature/flow rate graph below:-.

      Farmall A infrared image:-

      http://www.gcshomeinspections.com/Infrared-Tractor-Montrose-See-Through-Tarp

      Exhaust gas temperature for a 4 cylinder petrol engine about 220 C and 0.04 kg/s (page 6)

      http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/deer_2007/session6/deer07_yang.pdf

      Curiously, a Google Images search for – thermal image tractor – turns up a girl in a bikini.

    • Mike Jowsey on July 30, 2012 at 4:34 pm said:

      Cheers again RC! You’ve been thinking! My fan sprayer would probably mix things up to about 7 metres. Too much of a gamble, I agree. You might be right about just driving around the orchard in my old Ford diesel. The exhaust blows down to one side. It’s worth a crack. Although I have never completely lost a crop of cherries to frost, I am sure yields could be greater if I could mitigate damage. Many thanks for your advice and research. Pop in for a bag of cherries, maybe even a tipple of Cherry Liqueur, if you’re in the South Island over Christmas/New Year.

    • Richard C (NZ) on August 9, 2012 at 6:31 pm said:

      This frost protection thread must invoke this AdSense banner.top of page,

      Frost Protection
      Portable frost fan, Tow and Blow grapes, apples, vegetables, berries
      http://www.towandblow.co.nz/

      Bottom of page,

      Mobile Wind Turbine
      Wind generator for frost prevention Protect vineyards, orchards, crops

      7m high fan Mike. Doesn’t give any result anecdotes or temperature profiles that I can see though.

  50. Jim McK on July 12, 2012 at 2:02 pm said:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7265266/Carbon-dioxide-intake-soars

    “Scientists have discovered that plants, trees and soil have abruptly increased their atmospheric carbon dioxide intake in the last 20 years.
    The land biosphere was taking in about one billion tonnes of carbon per year since 1988, equal to about 10 per cent of the global fossil fuel emissions for 2010.
    However, the sudden shift didn’t mean people shouldn’t worry about climate change in the future, Niwa atmospheric scientist Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher said.
    Without nature’s new uptake regime, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would probably have increased even more rapidly over the last two decades.
    And if the change was temporary, reducing C02 levels in the future might get harder.”

    One billion tones of carbon amounts to about 0.03% of the carbon locked up in plants trees and soil. Perhaps the missing billion went to the oceans – there it would be 0.002% of the carbon. Either way it is clearly below the margin of error for direct measurement.

    Amazing what constitutes a Discovery these days.

    • Hey Jim,
      It could be that the NZ compliant, discreet, easily-managed population is being used as a test-bed for The-Big-CAGW-Comeback. Witness the TV-One broadcast last night, parroting ABC’s propaganda on extreme weather events signaling an undefined but scary ‘tipping point’.

      As to the ‘Discovery’ that nature has a carbon uptake regime, gee, maybe it’s phytoplankton!. In other words, although the science is settled and CAGW is incontrovertible, we have no clue. Margin of error? Don’t make me spit my coffee again!

  51. Jim McK on July 12, 2012 at 8:30 pm said:

    Hi Mike,

    Yes that TV one broadcast is a shocker,

    “Scientist prove for the first time that extreme weather is caused by decades of warming”
    Perhaps a complaint to the broadcasting standards authority might be worth a go.

    But not wanting to be uncharitable I would like wish Dr Sarah, who looks to be younger than my daughter, safe travels to what ever part of the globe she is going to present her paper.

  52. Richard C (NZ) on July 14, 2012 at 2:59 pm said:

    Gareth Renowden thinks this is a “Damn good question”:-

    …how much more extreme weather does it take for governments and individuals to act, or for the oil companies to withdraw from the Arctic, or the media to link global warming with the events now being witnessed around the world? Must the sea boil, the Seine run dry, New York flood and the London Olympics be consumed by fire before countries are shocked into taking concerted action?

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-truth-is-molten/

    I think it’s a good question too because it’s so zany it defies answer,

    And apparently “The truth is molten” in Warmer World.

  53. Andy on July 27, 2012 at 1:29 pm said:

    “Snow making to increase as climate changes”

    Ski fields will be able to use snow making technology to make up for a loss of natural snow caused by climate change for the rest of this century, a new study suggests.

    Researchers from Niwa and the United States assessed the range of likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow for a selection of New Zealand ski area locations in one study, while a second study considered the country more generally.

    Their findings, published in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, considered two future time periods – 2030 to 2049 and 2080 to 2099 – and compared them to the period 1980 to 1999.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7358221/Snow-making-to-increase-as-climate-changes

    Something to consider when booking your 2080 ski holidays.

  54. The courtroom war over mining the Denniston and Stockton plateaus continues today at the High Court in Christchurch.

    Environmentalists are appealing against an Environment Court declaration that climate change cannot be considered in resource consent decisions.

    It is being fought by the West Coast Environment Network and Forest & Bird against Australian coalminer Bathurst Resources.

    Early this year, Bathurst and state-owned miner Solid Energy went to the Environment Court for a ruling on the climate change question to clear up future hearings and appeals.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7375409/Appeal-over-climate-change-ruling

    • Richard C (NZ) on July 30, 2012 at 2:30 pm said:

      From what I can gather, the RMA only covers discharge of GHGs and the effects on climate change by those discharges – not by any subsequent effects from mined resources. Those subsequent effects are what the NZ ETS (supposedly) deals with and whatever is in place in a country where the resources might be exported to.. GHG emissions by the actual mining operation would be minimal.

      You can search the Act with “climate change” here:-

      http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1991/0069/latest/resultsin.aspx?search=sw_096be8ed808ac04b_%22climate+change%22_25&p=1

      BTW, I’ve had my head in Resource Efficiency in New Zealand and how the MfE is developing the concept via Boffa Miskell

      http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/rer/assessment-of-business-sectors.html

      Final report here:-

      http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/rer/assessment-of-business-sectors.pdf

      Fine, except for “greenhouse gas emissions” in CO2e. A redundant measure and efficiency ratio IMO.

    • Andy on July 30, 2012 at 3:14 pm said:

      NZ coal from Denniston is primarily used for steel manufacture. If the environmentalists are so concerned they should be boycotting the import of steel products.

      E.g cars, washing machines, bicycles, nuts, bolts, wind turbine towers, computers, steel building joists, trains, etc

      You know it makes sense

    • Richard C (NZ) on July 30, 2012 at 3:56 pm said:

      They should add the ArcelorMittal Orbit Tower at the London Olympics (£15 ticket price) to that list

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2012/may/11/london-olympics-orbit-anish-kapoor

      “The Denniston Plateau coal sought by Bathurst is the premium high-quality coking coal which is a key ingredient for steel mills, much sought-after by the developing economies of China, India and other Asian countries”

      http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/200189/coal-pitched-against-environment

    • Richard C (NZ) on August 4, 2012 at 8:22 pm said:

      A similar case to the Denniston challenge has just been dismissed in the US but note the difference to NZ’s RMA considerations:-
      **************************************************************************************************************
      Judge dismisses lawsuit over Wyoming coal leases

      A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge from environmental groups that sought to block federal coal leases in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin on the grounds that burning the coal would contribute to global warming.

      http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018836459_apwycoalleaseslawsuit2ndldwritethru.html

      John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians in Santa Fe, N.M., said his group is disappointed with Kollar-Kotelly’s ruling and plans to appeal.

      “We’re especially disappointed given that this ruling never gets to the real merits. We’ve been bounced on standing,” Horning said. “And it’s, I think, a pretty cynical view of the impacts of climate change to dismiss one’s standing because the impacts are so diffuse. We’re all affected by climate change.”

      Horning said his group has focused on the Powder River Basin because of the scale of mining and coal production there. Wyoming is the nation’s leading coal-producing state and most of its production comes from that area.

      Marion Loomis, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said Thursday he’s thankful the judge dismissed the suits. His group is a member of the National Mining Association, which intervened as a defendant.

      “The Department of Interior has to follow their rules and laws that are on the books,” Loomis said. “I don’t think there’s anything on the department’s laws, rules or regulations that says they have to take into account any climate change. Until that happens, they shouldn’t be taking that into consideration in their environmental reviews.”
      ***************************************************************************************************************
      Denniston may set a precedent if USA implements RMA-type climate change considerations.

  55. Doug Proctor on August 21, 2012 at 1:21 pm said:

    Hi, Richard,

    I seem to recall that NIWA left the Court with a Adverse Inference situation. Is that still happening?

  56. New York philanthropist and billionaire Julian Robertson has donated $5.3 million to establish a new institute in New Zealand for research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean’s role in climate change.

    The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute was launched by Prime Minister John Key last night at Premier House.

    It will operate as a public-private partnership.

    The institute will be closely aligned to the crown entity Antarctic New Zealand and its chairman, Rob Fenwick, will chair the institute as well.

    Mr Fenwick said he expected Government projects through the Crown research institute and universities would be strengthened by collaboration with Antarctic Research Institute projects.

    “The international science community believes what happens on the Antarctic continent over the next 50 years will be critical in predicting the human impacts of climate change.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10828302

  57. Bathurst win their appeal against Forest and Bid to mine coal at Denniston, without “climate change” appearing in the considerations

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bathurst-resources-wins-climate-change-appeal-wb-126882

  58. Tim Groser may get job at WTO

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/7574021/Groser-mulls-tilt-at-WTO-job

    Nice work mate.

    Send us a postcard?

  59. Power Shift 2012 is coming to Auckland!

    Join the biggest youth climate summit New Zealand has ever seen! Power Shift will be part conference, part festival, part workshop and part celebration of the power of hundreds of young people to change the world. Are you in?
    Manaaki whenua, manaaki tangata, haere whakamua

    7-9 Dec 2012
    http://powershift.org.nz/

    Key speakers include

    Auckland mayor the Honourable Len Brown
    Actress and Activist Lucy Lawless
    Founder of 350.org Bill McKibben (via video conference)
    Dunedin City Council’s youngest councillor Jinty MacTavish
    Young 350 Pacific organizer from Samoa Brianna Fruean
    Young Pacific climate change activist from the Soloman Islands Christina Ora, who famously told world leaders “you have negotiated all my life, you cant tell me you need more time”
    Director of Carbon Partnership and award winning (ex-) lecturer from Victoria University Sean Weaver
    Lawyer and activist from Te Whanau a Apanui Dayle Takitimu
    Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency CEO Mike Underhill
    Inspiring members of the Power Shift crew

    Plus some “old codgers” heckling from the back, perhaps?

  60. Richard C (NZ) on December 9, 2012 at 9:06 am said:

    Global warming to blame for Hobsonville twister?

    Scientists are warning that weather events like the devastating tornado that struck Auckland yesterday may be a symptom of global warming.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/global-warming-blame-hobsonville-twister-5272404

    I suppose it was inevitable that a link would be made however tenuous (“like”, “may”).

    • If they want to stick to this story then maybe we should apply for money from the US, under this new fund just agreed at Doha

      COP 18 voted just minutes ago to create a “Doha Climate Gateway” and agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. remains out of the protocol, now joined by Russia, Japan and Canada.

      COP 18 inserted a “Loss & Damage Mechanism” into the final text which would require developed countries like the U.S. to pay poor nations for climate damages supposedly resulting from extreme weather events.

      http://www.cfact.org/qatar/

  61. Peter Whitmore: Immediate action needed to reduce carbon emissions
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10860337

    Getting our emissions down to 1990 levels is only the first small step in what we need to achieve. Internationally targets as high as an 80 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2050 have been put forward. Our Government has already raised the possibility of agreeing to targets of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (subject to a raft of conditions) and of 50 per cent below by 2050.

    [..]

    Meanwhile, former United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer recently said he believes the European Union needs to quickly boost its carbon price to about €150 ($240) a tonne if it is to meet its objective of reducing emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Compared to this, present New Zealand pricing seems to be in make-believe land.

    The only thing in make-believe land is this article. A carbon price of $240 and emissions NZ reduced by 10 to 20 percent of 1990 levels within the next 7 years.

    What is this guy smoking? According to his bio, he has a background in engineering and economics.

  62. Richard C (NZ) on February 8, 2013 at 9:18 am said:

    $1.6m for international climate science initiative

    The Ministry for Primary Industries has announced the funding and says the money will go towards agricultural greenhouse gas research.

    New Zealand’s scientists have until 27 March to submit research ideas. However, in order for their projects to be funded they will need to be collaborating with scientists from at least two other nations.

    The ministry says the inter-governmental initiative is all about breaking down the barriers of climate science by getting scientists from different countries working together.

    It says the challenge of growing more food, and developing more climate-resilient food systems, without growing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture requires a global strategic approach.

    Twenty-one European countries, as well as New Zealand, Canada and the United States, are members of the joint science initiative.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/127461/$1-point-6m-for-international-climate-science-initiative

  63. Russel Norman overjoyed at Solid Energy failure

    Green Party co-leader Dr Russel Norman said today that Solid Energy’s troubles were “the best possible result under the circumstances.”

    “As a Green Party, we’ve been trying to put an end to mining, and especially coal mining for as long as we’ve been in existence.”

    “Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources in use, so to have it become uneconomical to extract is really a gift for not just the Greens, but all the peoples and tamariki of Aotearoa”.

    Asked about the loss of jobs on the West Coast, Dr. Norman said: ”There is no job crisis on the West Coast. Only an Imagination Crisis. They are sitting on some of the most unspoiled parts of the country, and it is time they start thinking sustainable eco tourism, organic farming and revitalising the Arts such as sculpture, painting and poetry.”

    Dr. Norman said he’d like to congratulate the Government for a job well done, and challenged John Key to continue economic policies that would result in other planet destroying industries, such as dairy farming, to fail also.

    http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/russell-norman-overjoyed-at-solid-energy-failure/

    The comments are a laugh

  64. Climate change in coal consents?

    The Supreme Court is being asked to determine whether climate change should be considered when coal mining companies apply for resource consent. It comes after both the Environment Court and the High Court ruled that climate change isn’t part of coal mining consents.
    Everyone involved in the argument accepts coal is a pollutant that contributes to climate change. What’s in dispute is whether Parliament intended climate change to be ignored when it comes to coal mining under the Resource Management Act.
    “It is bizarre if New Zealand’s foremost environmental statute cannot consider the most serious environmental threat to humanity and to the planet,” says West Coast Environment Network member Jeanette Fitzsimons.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Climate-change-in-coal-consents/tabid/1160/articleID/290003/Default.aspx#ixzz2NJPbXSkt

  65. English leading debate on Climate Change

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/english-leading-debate-climate-change-weekend-review-lg-137202
    Matthew Hooton

    (This will get the warmistas choking on their organic muesli )

    Alarmist prophecies

    Mr English’s comments were in the context of climate change.

    Regular readers will know I am one who doubts the more alarmist prophecies.

    In my view, climate change has a touch of the Salem witch trials. Whatever happens is presented as evidence for the hypothesis.

    Moreover, it is too easy to see how the issue could suffer from inflation. If Professor A has a model suggesting sea-level rises of, say, 2 metres, Professor B with a model suggesting only 1.8 metres is not going to get any media attention.

    It’s Professor C with a new 2.2 metre forecast who will get the attention of the university’s PR department and wind up being interviewed on some deeply earnest programme on PBS, MSNBC or Radio NZ.

    Nevertheless, I accept I am in the minority. A majority of those who style themselves as climate scientists believe the world is warming – except for where climate change is making it colder – and the seas are rising.

    A majority of governments formally agree – unsurprisingly given any poll will agree too.

    The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is considered the authority, although anyone who bothers to read what it says will learn it forecasts far more modest and manageable temperature and sea-level rises than those touted by multinational climate-change alarmists such as Greenpeace.

  66. James Renwick on Q&A
    ————

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/lack-govt-leadership-climate-change-renwick-ck-137337

    Lack of govt leadership on climate change – Renwick

    One of the country’s leading climate scientists, Dr James Renwick, has criticised the government for a lack of leadership on adaptation around climate change.

    Dr Renwick told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that farmers need prepare for a drier climate in future, adding: “I think the government does have policy around adaptation, but I think, yeah, there could be more political leadership on this issue.”

    He also said that New Zealand needed to opt f or more sustainability, lower intensity and lower stocking rates in order to cope with the change in weather patterns. “The present intensification of farming and dairying, in particular, doesn’t look very sustainable, given the way the climate’s likely to change.”

    Dr Renwick told the programme that global warming was the only explanation for the drought, saying the average around which temperatures vary is changing and will be hotter over time.

    “So what we call a very warm year now will be a cold year in 50 or 60 years’ time. What we’d call a dry summer now will be getting closer to the normal summer in another 50 to 100 years’ time.”

    [Emphasis added - AS]

    • Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 10:46 am said:

      Uses “yeah” a lot – like a yobbo in the pub. or a stoned hippie.

      I wonder what “the only explanation” for the rain is?

    • Stoned hippy? That would explain the shirt

    • Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 12:05 pm said:

      The shirt does rule out pub yobbo and delinquent teenager. Not really hippie either. Maybe we’re talking 70s retro guy (favs: music Hot August Night, film Heat).

  67. Richard C (NZ) on March 18, 2013 at 11:56 am said:

    Your future weather: A daunting forecast

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10871842

    Dr James Renwick

    “The AR5 is hugely significant for New Zealanders, and for all nations – it is the one best resource for our present understanding of climate change.”

    He described climate change as the biggest issue facing humanity, with political and social responses urgently required.

    Professor David Frame

    Professor Frame saw the international post-2020 climate change regime as being “absolutely fundamental” to tackling the problem.

    “Climate policy has to mature, and fast. Climate change is a long-term issue, so we should plan for a sustained, global response over several decades.”

    “Given that climate policies are only effective if they can command electoral support, I think it’s important that climate initiatives become a mainstream part of other policies, rather than as radical social experiments.”

    Dr Simon Lamb

    “Temperature records show that this is one of the fastest warming places on the planet, but these results have been contested by some climate sceptics.

    “Yet, you only have to talk to the local inhabits – for example, the Sami people of northern Norway – to realise that they know it is warming rapidly from their own observations.”

    # # #

    All oblivious to any other scenario.

  68. Richard C (NZ) on March 20, 2013 at 10:30 am said:

    Gareth Renowden displaying total iincomprehension of the actual processes of planetary enthalpy and thermal inertia:-

    From: “The Other Side Of The Story” – [They got that right at least]

    “The bad news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It will take around 30 years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of all the extra greenhouse gases. In other words, continued warming cannot be avoided.”

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/

    Yes there’s a lag built in to the system but not the one Gareth thinks, he’s about 40 to 50 years too late. Temperatures have already stabilised over the 21st century, contrary to Gareth’s other-worldly perspective, because they lagged late 1980s solar change by 8 – 20 yrs via the solar => ocean heat sink => atmosphere/space process,

    So paraphrasing for the real world:-

    “The [good (but not really)] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

    These guys are just looking more and more loopy every day now.

    • I’m guessing that me responding in comments there won’t be welcomed.
      Don’t know why; it’s just a hunch I have

    • Richard C (NZ) on March 20, 2013 at 11:00 am said:

      I’ve submitted a comment:-

      richardcfromnz says:
      Your comment is awaiting moderation.
      March 20, 2013 at 10:56 am

      Paraphrasing for the real world:-

      “The [good] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

      http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/#comment-4473

    • Good luck with that. The one comment so far has this nugget

      We are headed into completely unknown territory as far as climate goes. But a pragmatic assessment puts the Earth at largely uninhabitable some time between 2040 and 2080.

      Cheerful lot aren’t they?

      EDIT – I see your comment is through. Bring on the trolls.

  69. Richard C (NZ) on March 31, 2013 at 5:23 pm said:

    Gluckman appears to letting climate change slip quietly into oblivion. It’s at the bottom of the list of “issues” and not one of his blog posts back to October 20, 2011 addresses “the greatest moral issue of our time” from what I can see.

    There’s been no update to the ‘Climate change’ page since Thursday, 13 August 2009.

    http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/climate-change/

  70. Richard C (NZ) on April 20, 2013 at 4:00 pm said:

    Just to highlight mind-numbed denial of the existence of certain natural phenomena by the Hot Topic eco-fascist faithful (e.g. bill in particular):-

    ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

    It reads like something out of science fiction: an active underwater volcano, a team of international experts – and a giant drill.

    To scientists, the Brothers Volcano represents the world’s best opportunity to understand how magmatic hydrothermal systems work within submarine volcanos.

    The volcano, 400km northeast of White Island, is perhaps the best mapped and understood submarine volcano known to science.

    Three kilometres wide and with a highest peak 1.2km below sea level, Brothers is the most hydrothermally active of all the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc – itself arguably the most active chain of submarine volcanoes in the world.

    It continually throws up dark, metal-rich plumes of dissolved minerals which, when hitting cold seawater, precipitate out and gather on the sea floor.

    As this reaction occurs it can also build “chimneys” rich in metals above the vents.

    One of two vent fields that sharply contrast in their chemistry is responsible for large mineral deposits of copper and gold.

    By drilling into the volcano, scientists hope to unlock the secrets of its magma chamber, test computer models of its sea floor hydro-thermal plumbing, find out about the transport of precious metals inside the volcano, and assess diversity of microbial life within the volcano.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10877532

    # # #

    In bill’s mind, the undersea Brothers Volcano does not actually exist.

    • ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

      This is a quote, but what is the reference, please? Ah, I see, the reference comes last. Then, your comments follow “# # #”. Confusing.

  71. Some great events coming your way for the climate enthusiasts:

    NZ Climate Change Conference, June 4-5 Palmerston North

    http://www.nzcccconference.org/

    Kindly sponsored by the NZ taxpayer (hey, thanks for the money guys!)
    http://www.nzcccconference.org/sponsors

    Plus (wait there’s more!) a one day workshop organised by the Orthodox Church of Modern Day Warmists

    http://www.greens.org.nz/events/climate-change-conference

    I have my registration already, for the latter, see here:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48940782/climateReg.pdf

  72. Rodney Hide in the NBR

    “Faith, not facts, drive global warming”

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/faith-not-facts-drive-global-warming-dc-139899

    Has a good dig at Renwick

  73. Andy on June 4, 2013 at 11:57 am said:

    MRP windfarm consent finally granted

    Mighty River Power today announced its been granted a final resource consent to build a wind farm near Dannevirke, but said it won’t start building for at least three years.

    The 310 megawatt farm, which consists of 53 turbines in the Puketoi Range, originally got consent last year, but remained subject to appeal. All three appellant submissions have since been withdrawn.

    In conjunction with the Turitea site near Palmerston North, it gives Mighty River Power the option for up to 490Mw of wind capacity.

    However, in its update to the market, the recently listed firm said it was unlikely to start any new generation projects in the next three to five years, mostly due to an over-construction of gas, wind and geothermal power stations over the past decade.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8753038/MRP-windfarm-consent-finally-granted

  74. Andy on June 6, 2013 at 8:17 pm said:

    The NZ Green Party one day conference on climate change that occurred today will be streamed here for those interested

    http://new.livestream.com/nzgreens/events/2154111

    • Andy on June 9, 2013 at 11:47 am said:

      Particularly this bit

      It points to Britain’s target of a 34 percent cut by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. Rather than the current signalled target of a 50 percent cut from 1990 levels by 2050, New Zealand should target a 90 percent cut, the paper says.

  75. Andy on June 27, 2013 at 2:48 pm said:

    “Scientist warns of more extreme flood events”

    Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned.

    Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate.

    Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.

    At this point in time, both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.

    “Some are arguing that we are already committing our atmosphere and our climate to a time that we haven’t seen for three million years, which saw the loss of those ice sheets,” said Professor Naish, speaking in Hobart at the first joint conference between Antarctica New Zealand and the Australian Antarctic Division.

    [..continues]

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10892922

  76. Mike Jowsey on June 28, 2013 at 12:29 am said:

    OMG! It could be, with a 95% certitude, that the Planet, according to our trillion-dollar computer models, has reached an academic tipping point, and IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

    (btw, send more money NOW)

  77. Andy on July 6, 2013 at 2:16 pm said:

    A state-owned electricity company on Thursday received the go-ahead to build what could be New Zealand’s largest wind farm just north of the capital, Wellington.

    A statement from Genesis Energy said it had no immediate plans to start construction after the country’s Environment Court confirmed resource consents for 286 turbines with a potential total generating capacity of 860 megawatts.

    Genesis Energy chief executive Albert Brantley said in the statement that sustainable energy options of the scale of the proposed Castle Hill Wind Farm were “essential for the future of New Zealand’s energy generation.”

    “These consents are about being prepared for the future. They will provide Genesis Energy the ability to respond to the changing needs of New Zealanders, our customers, when we need to,” Brantley said.

    Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges welcomed the Environment Court decision, saying the wind farm could power around 370,000 homes.

    “This is a major boost to our continued confidence in renewables. It shows that companies are clearly willing to invest in progressing cost-effective options to meet New Zealand’s future electricity needs,” Bridges said in a statement.

    Genesis Energy had entered the project without any form of subsidy support from the government, he said.

    The project would bring the total amount of consented renewable electricity generation capacity throughout New Zealand to well over 4,000 megawatts, enough to meet almost 30 years of demand.

    “It is projects like this that ensure we are well on our way to achieving our 90 percent renewable electricity target by 2025. I am confident that the majority of electricity generating capacity to be built over coming years will be renewable,” Bridges said.

    http://www.eco-business.com/news/chinas-company-gets-approval-new-zealand-largest-wind-farm/

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