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Taking the heat out of global warming

For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.

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  • About

New Zealand

This thread is for discussion of New Zealand aspects of global warming.

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155 Responses to “New Zealand”

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  1. Al says:
    September 2, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    I was outraged to see today that the NZ government has allocated $25million to research ways to mitigate methane production by ruminants. A lot of this money will be spent overseas.

    It would be better for our economy if they spent it on proving methane doesn’t matter, with more likelihood of success.

    See: http://platoflipbooks.co.nz/LivestockResearchGroup/August%202011/LivestockResearchGroup-AugustNewsletter2011/

    Reply
  2. A Message To The Crony Capitalists at PURE ADVANTAGE | TrueblueNZ says:
    September 21, 2011 at 6:34 pm

    [...] discussion on “Pure Advantage” at the bottom of this thread. Eco World Content From Across The Internet. Featured on EcoPressed Living Green: Chicago [...]

    Reply
  3. Richard C (NZ) says:
    October 9, 2011 at 12:26 pm

    Three marine energy projects announced

    The projects are a wave energy device at Stewart Island, a cable linking to another device at Wellington’s Moa Point and turbines at Parnell Baths in Auckland.

    Meanwhile, funding has been withdrawn for a separate tidal stream generator at Kaipara Harbour after the company involved, Crest Energy, failed to meet timelines.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/87753/three-marine-energy-projects-announced

    Reply
  4. Richard C (NZ) says:
    October 29, 2011 at 3:35 pm

    ‘Occupy’ protesters to target Auckland banks

    Published: 4:24PM Friday October 28, 2011 Source: ONE News

    Occupy Auckland’ protesters will march on Auckland banks this weekend as part of a global day of action calling for a ‘Robin Hood’ tax.

    [...]

    The group is calling for a Financial Transaction Tax, which is says would end unemployment, stop climate change and eradicate global poverty.

    >>>>>>>>

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/occupy-protesters-target-auckland-banks-4487715

    Must be magic money.

    Reply
  5. Andy says:
    November 3, 2011 at 11:52 am

    Nats hope we focus on rugby – not global warming
    Richard Boock

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/blogs/an-auckland-minute/5896001/Nats-hope-we-focus-on-rugby-not-global-warning

    Yet another load of strawmen arguments and misunderstanding from an NZ journalist

    Added my 2c in comments, awaiting moderation

    Reply
    • Richard C (NZ) says:
      November 3, 2011 at 7:05 pm

      2 comments up – Andy #1, Nonentity #2

      Reply
  6. Richard C (NZ) says:
    November 4, 2011 at 5:53 pm

    Is this old news to everyone else (i.e. am I the last to twig) that “Nick” is or could be lead researcher, Associate Professor Nick Wilson?

    Nick hasn’t turned up lately. It might be because he was busy on a review of Government policy and action on climate change and writing this Press Release, see:-

    “Action on climate change policy falls well short”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00110/action-on-climate-change-policy-falls-well-short.htm

    “climate-damaging emissions” “potentially at catastrophic levels”.is something that Nick would come up with and Mike Palin was his coach for a while.

    Oddly, the study is in the New Zealand Medical Journal: ‘End-of-term review of the New Zealand Government’s response to climate change: A public health perspective’ (by Associate Professor Nick Wilson and colleagues, Wellington) is published this week, available at http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/124-1345/4949/.

    But that’s behind a pay-wall.

    Apparently there’s 140 or more senior doctors and other health professionals (OraTaiao) concerned about climate change impacts on health and health services, see:-

    “Doctors say New Zealand fiddles while the world burns”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00117/doctors-say-new-zealand-fiddles-while-the-world-burns.htm

    As if NZ could do anything to stop the world burning – wherever that’s happening.

    Reply
    • Andy says:
      November 4, 2011 at 7:25 pm

      I hadn’t “twigged” anything about Nick.
      However, I do have a particular bee in my bonnet about those in the medical profession who decide that it is their role in life to become ambassadors for the climate change movement.

      I’m so glad you posted this Richard. Now I have some names that I can address my concerns about fuel poverty (big problem in the UK thanks to Green energy policies), deaths in Africa because of biofuel policies, etc etc

      So far, there is no tangible evidence of human suffering due to AGW. Nothing. Period. Read Roger Pielke Jnr’s “The Climate Fix” for his dissection of the lies in the WHO reports.

      Reply
  7. Richard C (NZ) says:
    December 10, 2011 at 1:09 pm

    Dredged up this article from 2006 by Cindy Baxter who is posting at [Cold] Topic from Durban:-

    Cindy Baxter: Climate of doubt

    3:08 PM Friday May 5, 2006

    The British Government’s chief scientist, Sir David King, has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet..

    In the face of overwhelming evidence that the human race is causing the climate to change, there has been a resurgence of activity of climate science scepticism.

    On Monday, the new Climate Science Coalition was launched in New Zealand. The coalition includes a member of a conservative think tank, scientists linked with the climate sceptic movement, and a former national co-ordinator of the National Party’s Blue Greens.

    Three weeks ago, a letter signed by 60 scientists, including members of the NZ Climate Science Coalition, wrote to the newly elected conservative Canadian Government, pushing for it to abandon the Kyoto Protocol. The letter was followed by another, from scientists, calling on Canada to stick with Kyoto.

    These efforts are the latest in a campaign run by vested interests to discredit climate science and to stop the Kyoto Protocol from going forward.

    But their arguments have little to do with science, and everything to do with politics and business.

    [...]

    * Cindy Baxter is the Greenpeace campaign manager and co-author of the website Exxonsecrets.org

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10380264

    I note that there were no following comments in pre-Climategate 2006 (I know I wasn’t putting my oar in then). I’m sure there would be today considering that she manages to vilify:-

    NZ Climate Science Coalition
    Frank Luntz
    Neo-conservative think tanks
    “the climate sceptic industry”
    ExxonMobil
    George C. Marshall Institute
    Global Climate Coalition
    Dr Sallie Baliunas
    Vincent Gray
    Bob Carter
    Australian Institute of Public Affairs
    Willie Soon
    American Petroleum Institute
    Chris de Freitas
    The Media (see below)

    Sainthood (by implication) is bestowed on:-

    Sir David King

    “has warned that climate change is the most serious threat facing the planet”

    Michael Mann

    “major climate scientist”

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    “identified by 17 national academies of sciences as the pre-eminent authority on climate science”

    Lord May

    “There is no danger this lobby will influence the scientists. But they don’t need to. It is the influence on the media that is so poisonous.”

    Reply
  8. John in NZ says:
    February 9, 2012 at 1:01 pm

    Not sure where to put this .

    The New Zealand Carbon Credit market seems to be in freefall.

    According to http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6081834/Carbon-credits-pricing-crashes-and-burns

    “The price of New Zealand units (NZUs) has crashed from $22 in May to about $11 last week, stifling interest in developing carbon offsetting initiatives here, according to carbon market participants.

    The price crash has been so steep that by one calculation, if the price trend continued for another 100 days, the value of NZU credits would be zero.

    The reasons for the crash appear to be the unfettered ability of New Zealand emitters to import credits of dubious quality from overseas, coupled with the recent dumping of international credits by cash-strapped European industrial and utilities companies selling down their stockpiles of carbon to realise cash as the debt crisis worsens, participants in the fledgling carbon trading market say. ”

    BUT THIS WAS ON 5th DECEMBER.

    Prices have fallen since then. According to http://www.carbonmarketsolutions.com/

    an “indicative price” is $13.25 for 30000 NZUs.

    I assume this means for 30 tonnes. Does this mean the price is $4.42 per 10 tonne?

    Reply
    • Richard Treadgold says:
      February 9, 2012 at 1:18 pm

      This was a week ago from Reuters:
      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/newzealand-carbon-idUSL4E8D31Z620120203

      New Zealand spot carbon price pushes higher to six-week high

      WELLINGTON | Thu Feb 2, 2012 11:16pm EST

      Spot permits under New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme rose around 2 percent to NZ$7.65 ($6.38), brokers said. That was the highest level since just before the Christmas period.

      EU allowances gained nearly 5 percent to reach a five-day high of 8.85 euros on Thursday on a cold snap in Europe. Prices for UN-backed CERs gained for a third straight session to a six-week high.

      Reported earlier at $5.59 per tonne. http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/farming/6341684/Dairying-may-ride-ETS-crash

      Unfortunately, the best news, at http://www.carbonnews.co.nz, is locked behind a paywall. Brilliant way to make money when all other “global warming” means are failing.

      Reply
      • Andy says:
        February 9, 2012 at 1:46 pm

        There’s some other guys trying to make money off it, like these
        http://www.rev-id.com/

        who have a “Carbon compliance software platform” (groan)

        (I clicked on the banner ad on the carbon news site)

        Reply
  9. Richard C (NZ) says:
    February 22, 2012 at 7:53 am

    University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds

    Published: 6:15AM Wednesday February 22, 2012 Source: ONE News

    The University of Auckland has had its head in the clouds, and its conclusion is they are getting lower.

    The university looked at ten years of data from Nasa’s terra telescope to discover the average cloud height decresed by 1% over the past decade.

    The telescope showed fewer clouds were occuring at higher altitudes.

    Researchers believe a significant reduction in cloud height would lead to reducing the surface temperature of the planet and slowing global warming.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/technology-news/university-auckland-has-had-its-head-in-clouds-4736355

    Reply
  10. Andy says:
    March 20, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    WUWT reports on a claim in Nature that NZ could lose 85% of its glaciers by 2100

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/19/the-end-for-small-glaciers-or-anthropogenic-circular-reasoning/

    Reply
    • Mike Jowsey says:
      March 21, 2012 at 9:42 am

      “They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results. “

      Justthinkin says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:05 pm
      “using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases.”

      Hummmmmm. Looks like David beat me to it!LOL But that extract right there completely destroys any credibility these guys may have had. They used a GIGO model of a GIGO model to come up with another GIGO model??? And they wonder why most people with more than two brain cells and critical thinking skills call them “cultists in the CAGW religion”? Just follow the money.

      tallbloke says:
      March 19, 2012 at 2:58 pm
      New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100 say the team.
      Was the team using Jim Salinger’s imaginary NZ temperature record?

      lmao

      Reply
      • Andy says:
        March 21, 2012 at 10:02 am

        yes I saw that comment from Tallbloke too. NZ’s reputation travels far and wide.

        PS Mike you were pretty close with your earthquake prediction, as Mexico got hit by a 7.4 today

        Reply
        • Mike Jowsey says:
          March 21, 2012 at 1:49 pm

          Hmm – yes, it falls within the broad scope of what Terral was saying, but he was specifically predicting a 9.0 or greater, probably in NZ.

          March 22, 2012 is the day our researchers expect that Earth axis will shift 5 inches with aquifers around the globe and a 9+ magnitude earthquake event that will likely be included among the top ten in Earth history. This marks the next day on the 188-Day Cycle that is part of a pattern of seismicity extending back to 1965 (Mensur Omberbashich April 11, 2012 to Cornell). Other events on the 188-day cycle took place on February 27, 2010 (Chile 8.8*), September 4, 2010 (Christchurch 7.1*), March 11, 2011 (Japan 9.0*) and September 15, 2011 (Fiji 7.3*). The Earth experienced Earth axis shifts of three inches and four inches respectively with the nearside alignments and earth aquifer shifts connected to the Chile and Japan events. The historical precedent established by this seismic event pattern says the next Earth axis shift will take place in March 22, 2012 and will be five inches or greater.

          Source: http://terral03.com/home/march-22-2012-warning

          I take it with a pinch of salt, especially from a bible-thumper like Terral03. However, it’s of interest. Ken Ring predicts 6+ quakes on 23rd & 26th. We’ll see. Take care ;)

          Reply
  11. Andy says:
    April 17, 2012 at 8:24 pm

    Another NZ blog on the scene, with some interesting stuff on Windfarms and earthquake risk

    http://nzwindfarms.wordpress.com/

    Reply
  12. Mike Jowsey says:
    April 18, 2012 at 8:23 am

    It has been estimated that the ETS has cost the average family of four around $750 a year since it was introduced in 2010. The government is now planning to double that cost to around $1,500 a year over the next three years.[1] The change won’t take place in a single step, but will be phased in – increasing by a third in 2013, by another third in 2014, with the final third in 2015. At that stage the average household will be paying around $30 a week in the increased costs for power, fuel, and most other goods and services caused by the imposition of a $25 a tonne carbon charge onto our economy.

    And further on…

    It gets worse. The Minister will have power to ban imports, so as to be a quasi-monopoly supplier. Auction prices will be pushed up to $25 from the current market level of about $7 per unit. On top of all this, the obligation on energy companies will be doubled over three years. In summary, the burden on energy companies is to increase from $7 to $50 for two units. Virtually all of this 7-fold increase is a new tax.

    http://www.nzcpr.com/NewsletterArchive.htm

    Reply
  13. Andy says:
    May 2, 2012 at 9:09 am

    No go for climate change in appeals

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6841027/No-go-for-climate-change-in-appeals

    We can’t use “climate change” as a case for objecting to coal mining in (for example) the Denniston case.

    Gosh, do we see some common sense prevailing amongst our jurisdiction?

    Reply
  14. Andy says:
    June 16, 2012 at 8:27 pm

    Has Gareth Morgen seen the light or speaking what he has always thought with regard to the loony left?

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/gareth-morgan-takes-swipe-green-party-4932325

    Reply
  15. Richard C (NZ) says:
    July 3, 2012 at 4:41 pm

    Gareth Renowden at Hot Topic accuses EXXON CEO of an “intellectually obtuse position on climate impacts” “far from what the science points to”:-

    His conclusion that the impacts will be manageable is far from what the science points to.

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/exxon-boss-intellectually-obtuse-position-on-climate-impacts/

    For an example of what “the science” points to, Gareth quotes the alarmist ramblings of James Hansen:-

    Remember how James Hansen sums up the picture of what lies ahead if we exploit and burn fossil fuels from the new unconventional sources, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies:

    Apparently “the science” and James Hansen are interchangeable.

    If nothing else, you have to admire Gareth’s chutzpah.

    Reply
  16. Mike Jowsey says:
    July 6, 2012 at 12:14 pm

    Scientists concerned about Niwa cuts

    Scientists are worried by Niwa’s plans to cut three jobs at an internationally important atmospheric research station in Lauder, Central Otago.

    New Zealand Association of Scientists past president associate professor James Renwick said the cuts would “spell the end of the world-class climate measurement science programme at Lauder”.

    Reply
  17. Anthropogenic Global Cooling says:
    July 6, 2012 at 12:23 pm

    Looks like the government is about to defund NIWA’s global warming dept.

    http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/government-still-has-climate-science-phobia/5/128384

    Reply
    • Mike Jowsey says:
      July 7, 2012 at 5:17 pm

      Gee I wonder if this will impact their legal budget ;-)

      Reply
      • Anthropogenic Global Cooling says:
        July 8, 2012 at 9:12 am

        I think the defunding, in combination with the govt’s recent changes to the ETS, are signs the govt will slowly start withdrawing from the ETS. Gillard will lose the election in the West Island at the next election and her carbon tax will be reversed, which will be the catalyst for the Nats to pull out of the AGW scam. I think the writing is on the wall & I can’t wait to see the greens and alarmists squealing like little pigs over it – it’ll almost be worth the money they extorted from me to witness their collective gnashing of teeth & howls of ‘blasphemy’ …. almost.

        Reply
        • Mike Jowsey says:
          July 8, 2012 at 9:54 am

          Nice, but a little wishful. I agree with Gillard losing, but I think Key and co won’t want to part with the $550m currently being squeezed out of the economy under the guise of saving the planet. They might rename it, repackage it, but they won’t let it go. Probably do away with the ETS, change it to a tax and call it something like “Sustainability Tax”.

          Reply
  18. Richard C (NZ) says:
    July 8, 2012 at 2:44 pm

    Spring around the corner and Mike’s cherries and BOP kiwifruit at risk of frost got me thinking about frost damage to fruit and frost protection. Not much heard about this recently due to a kinder climate regime but if that regime drops back to a cooler level over the next decade (I think it will) protection systems will make big paybacks.

    Kiwifruit has moved away from helicopters to irrigation since about 2004 http://www.hortnet.co.nz/news/2004/n4810.htm and sector providors have been active e.g. AgFirst:-

    In recent years the New Zealand horticultural industry including the pipfruit, kiwifruit and viticultural industries have experienced damaging frosts due to colder weather patterns during spring and right through to as late as November each year.

    Early fruit varieties such as gold kiwifruit are particularly at risk to consecutive frost events during bud burst in mid-late August.

    The use of growth regulators such as Hi-Cane in apples and kiwifruit are widely used management tools for timing of bud burst and flower initiation.

    While giving the grower the advantage of bringing flowering forward and condensing flowering times, these tools unfortunately also expose the grower to greater risk from frost events. Without some form of frost protection, many growers can be severely set back due to the prevalence of untimely frost events.

    Wind machines will not always work, particularly in more severe advective “cold air” frosts, however irrigation water is a proven and reliable method. Craig has designed many highly effective systems with growers enjoying the benefit of long term crop stability and early payback on the capital expenditure.

    http://www.agfirst.co.nz/engineering/effluent-and-water-irrigation/irrigation-for-horticultural-frost-protection/

    Lots of reading on this e.g. :-

    Frost protection: fundamentals, practice, and economics – Volume 1… http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y7223e/y7223e00.htm#Contents Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    INTRODUCTION

    Overview
    Freeze and frost definitions
    Radiation frost
    Advection frost
    Classification of protection methods
    Geographical assessment of frost damage to crops
    Economic importance of frost damage
    History of frost protection

    Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
    Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999
    http://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/dspace/bitstream/10182/4236/1/frost_damage_in_vineyards.pdf

    Frost Protection in Orchards and Vineyards, Pacific North-west Washington USA http://www.frostsolutions.com/1999_evans_frost_protection.pdf

    And for Mike,

    Cherries
    An analysis of traditional and dwarf varieties and methods, for the Teviot valley, Central Otago.
    http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/PageFiles/1421/Mike-Paterson-cherries.pdf

    Frost
    The critical time where cherry flowers will become damaged by frost begins at bud swelling, which in Central Otago is mid September. Cherries will tolerate some frosting at the flowering stage but the effects of frosting from the small green fruit stage on can be quite devastating, and after petal fall you could lose the entire crop, so frost control will become very important from early October onwards.

    The critical temperatures and their effects at various development stages are shown in the chart below.

    1. The old standard is the lowest temperature that can be endured for 30 minutes without bud damage.
    2. Temperature at which 10% and 90% of buds will be killed
    3. Data collected by researchers at Washington State University Prosser Research Centre and adjusted for Central Otago Flowering dates and to oC.

    • The Grow Otago project has determined that for 4 out of 5 years, the last frost will occur between 28th October and 6th November in the Teviot Valley. NIWA frost recording data at Ettrick (approx 5 km south of the author’s property) has a total of 8 frost readings, ranging from 0 to -3 degrees, for September and October 2002, the last one on Oct 14th. This would suggest that some frost protection would be required.

    Various methods could be used for frost protection as for most fruits.

    1. Diesel burning frost pots at 50/ Ha @ approx $150 ea. These need an inversion layer to trap the heat, and burn 10+ litres of diesel / night.

    2. Wind machines that use an inversion of warm air and circulate it back down through the crop. One machine per 4-6 Ha @ approx $55K for a new 4 blader. Will protect to -2° to -3° and are limited in advection type frosts which are rare, but that occurred in 2002.

    3. Water from overhead sprinklers will protect to -8°C, but needs to be applied continuously, can have negative impacts on the soil and can spread bacterial blast. Costs approx $7K-$10K / Ha for mainlines and pipe work. Sprinklers should only be turned off when ice is falling off or melting away from the fruit.

    So place your bets, when will the last frost be this year at Mike’s cherry orchard (where is it Mike)?

    Reply
    • Mike Jowsey says:
      July 8, 2012 at 4:12 pm

      Thanks Richard – I’ve read that PDF on cherries – a bloody good reference which I have on my shelf. I am near Amberley, 50km north of Christchurch on SH1. Last year the last frost was on 3rd November. It was a very light one. Last year’s crop was about 60% of normal. Then we got the rain at Christmas which buggered everything! However, we strip-picked the split fruit, juiced it and got a local winery to produce a very smooth and rich Cherry Liqueur – similar to a port, with 17% alcohol. So all was not lost.

      However, back to the frost. As a small boutique orchard (500 trees) the justification of the capital outlay for wind, diesel or water protection is doubtful. Water is out as I am continually fighting bacterial blast (with largely organic methods) so couldn’t afford to exacerbate that problem. Another method would be to cover them with plastic. As the superstructure is already there to hold the bird nets over the trees, this might be okay as long as we didn’t get a late snowfall at sea level.

      We’ll see how it goes, I guess. I have pulled out all my apricots – about 1200 trees. I got 2 commercial crops in 10 years – the other years all wrecked by late frosts. Most years I can expect Labour Day to signal the end of frosts. If we are moving into a colder climate it may mean my cherries go the same way as the apricots. But that’s farming – adapt or die.

      Reply
      • Richard C (NZ) says:
        July 8, 2012 at 7:51 pm

        Heyyy! I’ve just clicked your Gracebrook website link Mike. That’s a new and exciting development here at CCG. Great cherry orchard pics and rundown of the years events http://www.gracebrook.co.nz/orchard/orchard.htm

        Excellent and very interesting – although a tad sad by Update 04/01/2012 after Update 27/12/2011:”The stellas are looking beaudacious”.

        It was sobering to read (only skimmed so far – word-for-word later) in ‘Cherries’ by Mike Paterson, that rain and birds ranked above frosts e.g.:-

        Successful cherry production is all about managing risk. Two risk factors that can completely devastate a crop are birds and rain. Rain covers and bird netting are becoming standard items on a lot of cherry orchards, as it can be the difference between staying viable and going broke.

        I admire your fortitude Mike. Amazing that Cherrycorp failed for want of rain covers after cash was diverted to the Apricotcorp purchase and shareholders didn’t cough up. Your experience is almost exact opposite. It was a shame (to say the least) about your apricots but you’ve survived by cutting your losses.

        I wonder is there frost protection for the cherries that only involves minimal incremental cost (other than plastic)? Maybe.just the orchard tractor circulating might provide enough disturbance and a little heat if it had a small 3-point mounted fan run off the PTO (I think orchard tractors have that set-up). But not a high speed fan mind you.

        Update 29/09/2011 shows the flowering and I’m guessing the start of the frost vulnerability comes right after going by ‘Cherries’. Is this what you mean by “late frosts”?

        BTW, those honeys look fantastic. Would Wild Flowers have honey from your pollinating hives brought in to the orchard beginning of October? If so it might be an “Add to Cart” one day around October/November?.

        Reply
        • Mike Jowsey says:
          July 9, 2012 at 4:26 pm

          Cheers Richard – thanks for the encouragement.

          I could put up rain covers but would have to modify the superstructure to allow run-off. The area is about the size of a rugby field. High winds (Norwest) can wreck stuff like that so it would be risky.

          Regards the frost, a fan on the back of a tractor is a good idea. I have an orchard sprayer with a big fan on it. Might try that out this year. Critical time seems to be 15-Oct through 7-Nov, when the green fruitlets are starting to appear.

          Reply
        • Richard C (NZ) says:
          July 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm

          Caution Mike. I’ve been reading ‘Frost Damage and Management in New Zealand Vineyards’, Trought, Howell and Cherry: Lincoln University and came across this:-

          Radiation frosts form because of cooling of the ground surface (Geiger et al. 1995). Still air is a good insulator and so strong that cooling of air occurs near the soil surface. The air temperature then rises with height through a surface layer. Above this layer, the temperature declines again with height. The warm over cold air is called an inversion layer, and is very stable with little vertical motion or mixing. The depth of the stable layer generally lies between about 5 and 40 m, with 10 to 30 m being most likely.

          Information of the presence of an inversion layer is particularly important if air-mixing systems (helicopters or windmills) are to be used for frost control. If the inversion layer is not present, or out of reach of the mixer, then using an air mixing system can result in increased damage. Water will remain liquid at several degrees below 0oC in a super-cooled state (Johnson and Howell, 1981; Lindow, 1983). However, movement of tissues containing supercooled water can cause ice nucleation, freezing, and tissue death.

          Practical Considerations for Reducing Frost Damage in
          Vineyards, Report to New Zealand Winegrowers: 1999

          http://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/dspace/bitstream/10182/4236/1/frost_damage_in_vineyards.pdf

          In view of the risk of a tractor or sprayer mounted fan moving tissues, it would be better to just rely on the radiator fan of the tractor engine and movement of the tractor to distribute near surface warmth.

          Exhaust gases would also aid warmth distribution near ground especially if the orchard tractor exhaust exits to one side and not directly down the alley. I looked up thermal images of tractors and cant detect exhaust heat in the image I found although there must be because about 60% of engine energy is waste heat and going by the temperature/flow rate graph below:-.

          Farmall A infrared image:-

          http://www.gcshomeinspections.com/Infrared-Tractor-Montrose-See-Through-Tarp

          Exhaust gas temperature for a 4 cylinder petrol engine about 220 C and 0.04 kg/s (page 6)

          http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/deer_2007/session6/deer07_yang.pdf

          Curiously, a Google Images search for – thermal image tractor – turns up a girl in a bikini.

          Reply
        • Mike Jowsey says:
          July 30, 2012 at 4:34 pm

          Cheers again RC! You’ve been thinking! My fan sprayer would probably mix things up to about 7 metres. Too much of a gamble, I agree. You might be right about just driving around the orchard in my old Ford diesel. The exhaust blows down to one side. It’s worth a crack. Although I have never completely lost a crop of cherries to frost, I am sure yields could be greater if I could mitigate damage. Many thanks for your advice and research. Pop in for a bag of cherries, maybe even a tipple of Cherry Liqueur, if you’re in the South Island over Christmas/New Year.

          Reply
        • Richard C (NZ) says:
          August 9, 2012 at 6:31 pm

          This frost protection thread must invoke this AdSense banner.top of page,

          Frost Protection
          Portable frost fan, Tow and Blow grapes, apples, vegetables, berries
          http://www.towandblow.co.nz/

          Bottom of page,

          Mobile Wind Turbine
          Wind generator for frost prevention Protect vineyards, orchards, crops

          7m high fan Mike. Doesn’t give any result anecdotes or temperature profiles that I can see though.

          Reply
  19. Jim McK says:
    July 12, 2012 at 2:02 pm

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7265266/Carbon-dioxide-intake-soars

    “Scientists have discovered that plants, trees and soil have abruptly increased their atmospheric carbon dioxide intake in the last 20 years.
    The land biosphere was taking in about one billion tonnes of carbon per year since 1988, equal to about 10 per cent of the global fossil fuel emissions for 2010.
    However, the sudden shift didn’t mean people shouldn’t worry about climate change in the future, Niwa atmospheric scientist Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher said.
    Without nature’s new uptake regime, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would probably have increased even more rapidly over the last two decades.
    And if the change was temporary, reducing C02 levels in the future might get harder.”

    One billion tones of carbon amounts to about 0.03% of the carbon locked up in plants trees and soil. Perhaps the missing billion went to the oceans – there it would be 0.002% of the carbon. Either way it is clearly below the margin of error for direct measurement.

    Amazing what constitutes a Discovery these days.

    Reply
    • Mike Jowsey says:
      July 12, 2012 at 3:19 pm

      Hey Jim,
      It could be that the NZ compliant, discreet, easily-managed population is being used as a test-bed for The-Big-CAGW-Comeback. Witness the TV-One broadcast last night, parroting ABC’s propaganda on extreme weather events signaling an undefined but scary ‘tipping point’.

      As to the ‘Discovery’ that nature has a carbon uptake regime, gee, maybe it’s phytoplankton!. In other words, although the science is settled and CAGW is incontrovertible, we have no clue. Margin of error? Don’t make me spit my coffee again!

      Reply
  20. Jim McK says:
    July 12, 2012 at 8:30 pm

    Hi Mike,

    Yes that TV one broadcast is a shocker,

    “Scientist prove for the first time that extreme weather is caused by decades of warming”
    Perhaps a complaint to the broadcasting standards authority might be worth a go.

    But not wanting to be uncharitable I would like wish Dr Sarah, who looks to be younger than my daughter, safe travels to what ever part of the globe she is going to present her paper.

    Reply
  21. Richard C (NZ) says:
    July 14, 2012 at 2:59 pm

    Gareth Renowden thinks this is a “Damn good question”:-

    …how much more extreme weather does it take for governments and individuals to act, or for the oil companies to withdraw from the Arctic, or the media to link global warming with the events now being witnessed around the world? Must the sea boil, the Seine run dry, New York flood and the London Olympics be consumed by fire before countries are shocked into taking concerted action?

    http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-truth-is-molten/

    I think it’s a good question too because it’s so zany it defies answer,

    And apparently “The truth is molten” in Warmer World.

    Reply
  22. Andy says:
    July 27, 2012 at 1:29 pm

    “Snow making to increase as climate changes”

    Ski fields will be able to use snow making technology to make up for a loss of natural snow caused by climate change for the rest of this century, a new study suggests.

    Researchers from Niwa and the United States assessed the range of likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow for a selection of New Zealand ski area locations in one study, while a second study considered the country more generally.

    Their findings, published in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, considered two future time periods – 2030 to 2049 and 2080 to 2099 – and compared them to the period 1980 to 1999.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7358221/Snow-making-to-increase-as-climate-changes

    Something to consider when booking your 2080 ski holidays.

    Reply
  23. Andy says:
    July 30, 2012 at 12:40 pm

    The courtroom war over mining the Denniston and Stockton plateaus continues today at the High Court in Christchurch.

    Environmentalists are appealing against an Environment Court declaration that climate change cannot be considered in resource consent decisions.

    It is being fought by the West Coast Environment Network and Forest & Bird against Australian coalminer Bathurst Resources.

    Early this year, Bathurst and state-owned miner Solid Energy went to the Environment Court for a ruling on the climate change question to clear up future hearings and appeals.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7375409/Appeal-over-climate-change-ruling

    Reply
    • Richard C (NZ) says:
      July 30, 2012 at 2:30 pm

      From what I can gather, the RMA only covers discharge of GHGs and the effects on climate change by those discharges – not by any subsequent effects from mined resources. Those subsequent effects are what the NZ ETS (supposedly) deals with and whatever is in place in a country where the resources might be exported to.. GHG emissions by the actual mining operation would be minimal.

      You can search the Act with “climate change” here:-

      http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1991/0069/latest/resultsin.aspx?search=sw_096be8ed808ac04b_%22climate+change%22_25&p=1

      BTW, I’ve had my head in Resource Efficiency in New Zealand and how the MfE is developing the concept via Boffa Miskell

      http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/rer/assessment-of-business-sectors.html

      Final report here:-

      http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/rer/assessment-of-business-sectors.pdf

      Fine, except for “greenhouse gas emissions” in CO2e. A redundant measure and efficiency ratio IMO.

      Reply
      • Andy says:
        July 30, 2012 at 3:14 pm

        NZ coal from Denniston is primarily used for steel manufacture. If the environmentalists are so concerned they should be boycotting the import of steel products.

        E.g cars, washing machines, bicycles, nuts, bolts, wind turbine towers, computers, steel building joists, trains, etc

        You know it makes sense

        Reply
        • Richard C (NZ) says:
          July 30, 2012 at 3:56 pm

          They should add the ArcelorMittal Orbit Tower at the London Olympics (£15 ticket price) to that list

          http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2012/may/11/london-olympics-orbit-anish-kapoor

          “The Denniston Plateau coal sought by Bathurst is the premium high-quality coking coal which is a key ingredient for steel mills, much sought-after by the developing economies of China, India and other Asian countries”

          http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/200189/coal-pitched-against-environment

          Reply
    • Richard C (NZ) says:
      August 4, 2012 at 8:22 pm

      A similar case to the Denniston challenge has just been dismissed in the US but note the difference to NZ’s RMA considerations:-
      **************************************************************************************************************
      Judge dismisses lawsuit over Wyoming coal leases

      A federal judge has dismissed a legal challenge from environmental groups that sought to block federal coal leases in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin on the grounds that burning the coal would contribute to global warming.

      http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018836459_apwycoalleaseslawsuit2ndldwritethru.html

      John Horning, executive director of WildEarth Guardians in Santa Fe, N.M., said his group is disappointed with Kollar-Kotelly’s ruling and plans to appeal.

      “We’re especially disappointed given that this ruling never gets to the real merits. We’ve been bounced on standing,” Horning said. “And it’s, I think, a pretty cynical view of the impacts of climate change to dismiss one’s standing because the impacts are so diffuse. We’re all affected by climate change.”

      Horning said his group has focused on the Powder River Basin because of the scale of mining and coal production there. Wyoming is the nation’s leading coal-producing state and most of its production comes from that area.

      Marion Loomis, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said Thursday he’s thankful the judge dismissed the suits. His group is a member of the National Mining Association, which intervened as a defendant.

      “The Department of Interior has to follow their rules and laws that are on the books,” Loomis said. “I don’t think there’s anything on the department’s laws, rules or regulations that says they have to take into account any climate change. Until that happens, they shouldn’t be taking that into consideration in their environmental reviews.”
      ***************************************************************************************************************
      Denniston may set a precedent if USA implements RMA-type climate change considerations.

      Reply
  24. Doug Proctor says:
    August 21, 2012 at 1:21 pm

    Hi, Richard,

    I seem to recall that NIWA left the Court with a Adverse Inference situation. Is that still happening?

    Reply
  25. Andy says:
    August 21, 2012 at 1:35 pm

    New York philanthropist and billionaire Julian Robertson has donated $5.3 million to establish a new institute in New Zealand for research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean’s role in climate change.

    The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute was launched by Prime Minister John Key last night at Premier House.

    It will operate as a public-private partnership.

    The institute will be closely aligned to the crown entity Antarctic New Zealand and its chairman, Rob Fenwick, will chair the institute as well.

    Mr Fenwick said he expected Government projects through the Crown research institute and universities would be strengthened by collaboration with Antarctic Research Institute projects.

    “The international science community believes what happens on the Antarctic continent over the next 50 years will be critical in predicting the human impacts of climate change.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10828302

    Reply
  26. Andy says:
    August 27, 2012 at 9:28 pm

    Bathurst win their appeal against Forest and Bid to mine coal at Denniston, without “climate change” appearing in the considerations

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bathurst-resources-wins-climate-change-appeal-wb-126882

    Reply
  27. Andy says:
    August 29, 2012 at 10:30 pm

    Tim Groser may get job at WTO

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/7574021/Groser-mulls-tilt-at-WTO-job

    Nice work mate.

    Send us a postcard?

    Reply
  28. Andy says:
    October 25, 2012 at 8:49 am

    Power Shift 2012 is coming to Auckland!

    Join the biggest youth climate summit New Zealand has ever seen! Power Shift will be part conference, part festival, part workshop and part celebration of the power of hundreds of young people to change the world. Are you in?
    Manaaki whenua, manaaki tangata, haere whakamua

    7-9 Dec 2012
    http://powershift.org.nz/

    Key speakers include

    Auckland mayor the Honourable Len Brown
    Actress and Activist Lucy Lawless
    Founder of 350.org Bill McKibben (via video conference)
    Dunedin City Council’s youngest councillor Jinty MacTavish
    Young 350 Pacific organizer from Samoa Brianna Fruean
    Young Pacific climate change activist from the Soloman Islands Christina Ora, who famously told world leaders “you have negotiated all my life, you cant tell me you need more time”
    Director of Carbon Partnership and award winning (ex-) lecturer from Victoria University Sean Weaver
    Lawyer and activist from Te Whanau a Apanui Dayle Takitimu
    Energy Efficiency and Conservation Agency CEO Mike Underhill
    Inspiring members of the Power Shift crew

    Plus some “old codgers” heckling from the back, perhaps?

    Reply
  29. Andy says:
    November 19, 2012 at 2:44 pm

    Some anti NZ stuff from the NYT

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/business/global/new-zealands-green-tourism-push-clashes-with-realities.html?ref=global&_r=1&pagewanted=all

    Reply
  30. Richard C (NZ) says:
    December 9, 2012 at 9:06 am

    Global warming to blame for Hobsonville twister?

    Scientists are warning that weather events like the devastating tornado that struck Auckland yesterday may be a symptom of global warming.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/global-warming-blame-hobsonville-twister-5272404

    I suppose it was inevitable that a link would be made however tenuous (“like”, “may”).

    Reply
    • Andy says:
      December 9, 2012 at 10:21 am

      If they want to stick to this story then maybe we should apply for money from the US, under this new fund just agreed at Doha

      COP 18 voted just minutes ago to create a “Doha Climate Gateway” and agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. remains out of the protocol, now joined by Russia, Japan and Canada.

      COP 18 inserted a “Loss & Damage Mechanism” into the final text which would require developed countries like the U.S. to pay poor nations for climate damages supposedly resulting from extreme weather events.

      http://www.cfact.org/qatar/

      Reply
  31. Andy says:
    January 21, 2013 at 11:12 am

    Peter Whitmore: Immediate action needed to reduce carbon emissions
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10860337

    Getting our emissions down to 1990 levels is only the first small step in what we need to achieve. Internationally targets as high as an 80 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2050 have been put forward. Our Government has already raised the possibility of agreeing to targets of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (subject to a raft of conditions) and of 50 per cent below by 2050.

    [..]

    Meanwhile, former United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer recently said he believes the European Union needs to quickly boost its carbon price to about €150 ($240) a tonne if it is to meet its objective of reducing emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Compared to this, present New Zealand pricing seems to be in make-believe land.

    The only thing in make-believe land is this article. A carbon price of $240 and emissions NZ reduced by 10 to 20 percent of 1990 levels within the next 7 years.

    What is this guy smoking? According to his bio, he has a background in engineering and economics.

    Reply
  32. Richard C (NZ) says:
    February 8, 2013 at 9:18 am

    $1.6m for international climate science initiative

    The Ministry for Primary Industries has announced the funding and says the money will go towards agricultural greenhouse gas research.

    New Zealand’s scientists have until 27 March to submit research ideas. However, in order for their projects to be funded they will need to be collaborating with scientists from at least two other nations.

    The ministry says the inter-governmental initiative is all about breaking down the barriers of climate science by getting scientists from different countries working together.

    It says the challenge of growing more food, and developing more climate-resilient food systems, without growing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture requires a global strategic approach.

    Twenty-one European countries, as well as New Zealand, Canada and the United States, are members of the joint science initiative.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/127461/$1-point-6m-for-international-climate-science-initiative

    Reply
  33. Andy says:
    February 27, 2013 at 3:44 pm

    Russel Norman overjoyed at Solid Energy failure

    Green Party co-leader Dr Russel Norman said today that Solid Energy’s troubles were “the best possible result under the circumstances.”

    “As a Green Party, we’ve been trying to put an end to mining, and especially coal mining for as long as we’ve been in existence.”

    “Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources in use, so to have it become uneconomical to extract is really a gift for not just the Greens, but all the peoples and tamariki of Aotearoa”.

    Asked about the loss of jobs on the West Coast, Dr. Norman said: ”There is no job crisis on the West Coast. Only an Imagination Crisis. They are sitting on some of the most unspoiled parts of the country, and it is time they start thinking sustainable eco tourism, organic farming and revitalising the Arts such as sculpture, painting and poetry.”

    Dr. Norman said he’d like to congratulate the Government for a job well done, and challenged John Key to continue economic policies that would result in other planet destroying industries, such as dairy farming, to fail also.

    http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/russell-norman-overjoyed-at-solid-energy-failure/

    The comments are a laugh

    Reply
    • Andy says:
      February 27, 2013 at 4:07 pm

      Note that this is a spoof article, but it is so close to the truth it hurts

      Reply
    • Mike Jowsey says:
      February 27, 2013 at 5:06 pm

      Thanks Andy! Cheered me up reading those comments. And this one is just as good, about the supreme court dismissing the Maori case against state asset sales.
      http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/he-shoots-he-scores-oh-no-he-didnt/

      Reply
      • Andy says:
        February 27, 2013 at 6:34 pm

        Mike – funny seeing Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury play a cameo role in that Twitter exchange

        I don’t know if you ever watched “Citizen A” on Stratos, but it was a class act with Bomber introducing WhaleOil as a “Far Right Storm Blogger”, and then Cam cozied up to all the lefties on the panel and completely ignored Bomber. It was priceless TV

        This is a classic spoof too.

        “Martyn Bradbury Realty”.
        “Consistently in the top 100% of agents”

        http://martynbradburyrealty.com/Welcome.html

        Reply
  34. Andy says:
    March 12, 2013 at 9:27 pm

    Climate change in coal consents?

    The Supreme Court is being asked to determine whether climate change should be considered when coal mining companies apply for resource consent. It comes after both the Environment Court and the High Court ruled that climate change isn’t part of coal mining consents.
    Everyone involved in the argument accepts coal is a pollutant that contributes to climate change. What’s in dispute is whether Parliament intended climate change to be ignored when it comes to coal mining under the Resource Management Act.
    “It is bizarre if New Zealand’s foremost environmental statute cannot consider the most serious environmental threat to humanity and to the planet,” says West Coast Environment Network member Jeanette Fitzsimons.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Climate-change-in-coal-consents/tabid/1160/articleID/290003/Default.aspx#ixzz2NJPbXSkt

    Reply
  35. Andy says:
    March 16, 2013 at 5:34 pm

    English leading debate on Climate Change

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/english-leading-debate-climate-change-weekend-review-lg-137202
    Matthew Hooton

    (This will get the warmistas choking on their organic muesli )

    Alarmist prophecies

    Mr English’s comments were in the context of climate change.

    Regular readers will know I am one who doubts the more alarmist prophecies.

    In my view, climate change has a touch of the Salem witch trials. Whatever happens is presented as evidence for the hypothesis.

    Moreover, it is too easy to see how the issue could suffer from inflation. If Professor A has a model suggesting sea-level rises of, say, 2 metres, Professor B with a model suggesting only 1.8 metres is not going to get any media attention.

    It’s Professor C with a new 2.2 metre forecast who will get the attention of the university’s PR department and wind up being interviewed on some deeply earnest programme on PBS, MSNBC or Radio NZ.

    Nevertheless, I accept I am in the minority. A majority of those who style themselves as climate scientists believe the world is warming – except for where climate change is making it colder – and the seas are rising.

    A majority of governments formally agree – unsurprisingly given any poll will agree too.

    The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is considered the authority, although anyone who bothers to read what it says will learn it forecasts far more modest and manageable temperature and sea-level rises than those touted by multinational climate-change alarmists such as Greenpeace.

    Reply
    • Richard C (NZ) says:
      March 16, 2013 at 6:33 pm

      Poor Simon there at #9, doing his whack-the-standstill best.

      Reply
  36. Andy says:
    March 18, 2013 at 9:55 am

    James Renwick on Q&A
    ————

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/lack-govt-leadership-climate-change-renwick-ck-137337

    Lack of govt leadership on climate change – Renwick

    One of the country’s leading climate scientists, Dr James Renwick, has criticised the government for a lack of leadership on adaptation around climate change.

    Dr Renwick told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that farmers need prepare for a drier climate in future, adding: “I think the government does have policy around adaptation, but I think, yeah, there could be more political leadership on this issue.”

    He also said that New Zealand needed to opt f or more sustainability, lower intensity and lower stocking rates in order to cope with the change in weather patterns. “The present intensification of farming and dairying, in particular, doesn’t look very sustainable, given the way the climate’s likely to change.”

    Dr Renwick told the programme that global warming was the only explanation for the drought, saying the average around which temperatures vary is changing and will be hotter over time.

    “So what we call a very warm year now will be a cold year in 50 or 60 years’ time. What we’d call a dry summer now will be getting closer to the normal summer in another 50 to 100 years’ time.”

    [Emphasis added - AS]

    Reply
    • Richard C (NZ) says:
      March 18, 2013 at 10:46 am

      Uses “yeah” a lot – like a yobbo in the pub. or a stoned hippie.

      I wonder what “the only explanation” for the rain is?

      Reply
      • Andy says:
        March 18, 2013 at 11:02 am

        Stoned hippy? That would explain the shirt

        Reply
        • Richard C (NZ) says:
          March 18, 2013 at 12:05 pm

          The shirt does rule out pub yobbo and delinquent teenager. Not really hippie either. Maybe we’re talking 70s retro guy (favs: music Hot August Night, film Heat).

          Reply
  37. Richard C (NZ) says:
    March 18, 2013 at 11:56 am

    Your future weather: A daunting forecast

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10871842

    Dr James Renwick

    “The AR5 is hugely significant for New Zealanders, and for all nations – it is the one best resource for our present understanding of climate change.”

    He described climate change as the biggest issue facing humanity, with political and social responses urgently required.

    Professor David Frame

    Professor Frame saw the international post-2020 climate change regime as being “absolutely fundamental” to tackling the problem.

    “Climate policy has to mature, and fast. Climate change is a long-term issue, so we should plan for a sustained, global response over several decades.”

    “Given that climate policies are only effective if they can command electoral support, I think it’s important that climate initiatives become a mainstream part of other policies, rather than as radical social experiments.”

    Dr Simon Lamb

    “Temperature records show that this is one of the fastest warming places on the planet, but these results have been contested by some climate sceptics.

    “Yet, you only have to talk to the local inhabits – for example, the Sami people of northern Norway – to realise that they know it is warming rapidly from their own observations.”

    # # #

    All oblivious to any other scenario.

    Reply
  38. Richard C (NZ) says:
    March 20, 2013 at 10:30 am

    Gareth Renowden displaying total iincomprehension of the actual processes of planetary enthalpy and thermal inertia:-

    From: “The Other Side Of The Story” – [They got that right at least]

    “The bad news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It will take around 30 years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of all the extra greenhouse gases. In other words, continued warming cannot be avoided.”

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/

    Yes there’s a lag built in to the system but not the one Gareth thinks, he’s about 40 to 50 years too late. Temperatures have already stabilised over the 21st century, contrary to Gareth’s other-worldly perspective, because they lagged late 1980s solar change by 8 – 20 yrs via the solar => ocean heat sink => atmosphere/space process,

    So paraphrasing for the real world:-

    “The [good (but not really)] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

    These guys are just looking more and more loopy every day now.

    Reply
    • Andy says:
      March 20, 2013 at 10:44 am

      I’m guessing that me responding in comments there won’t be welcomed.
      Don’t know why; it’s just a hunch I have

      Reply
      • Richard C (NZ) says:
        March 20, 2013 at 11:00 am

        I’ve submitted a comment:-

        richardcfromnz says:
        Your comment is awaiting moderation.
        March 20, 2013 at 10:56 am

        Paraphrasing for the real world:-

        “The [good] news is that there’s a lag built in to the system. It [took] around [14] years to see temperatures stabilise, because the oceans have to catch up with the warming effect of [Grand Maximum solar levels]. In other words, continued warming cannot [now continue].”

        http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2013/03/20/bursting-bill-and-stevens-bubble/#comment-4473

        Reply
        • Andy says:
          March 20, 2013 at 11:09 am

          Good luck with that. The one comment so far has this nugget

          We are headed into completely unknown territory as far as climate goes. But a pragmatic assessment puts the Earth at largely uninhabitable some time between 2040 and 2080.

          Cheerful lot aren’t they?

          EDIT – I see your comment is through. Bring on the trolls.

          Reply
  39. Richard C (NZ) says:
    March 31, 2013 at 5:23 pm

    Gluckman appears to letting climate change slip quietly into oblivion. It’s at the bottom of the list of “issues” and not one of his blog posts back to October 20, 2011 addresses “the greatest moral issue of our time” from what I can see.

    There’s been no update to the ‘Climate change’ page since Thursday, 13 August 2009.

    http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/climate-change/

    Reply
    • Andy says:
      March 31, 2013 at 6:53 pm

      Meanwhile the UK has appointed yet another Chief Scientist who has no background in climate change or Earth Sciences whatsoever

      http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=83766

      Reply
  40. Richard C (NZ) says:
    April 20, 2013 at 4:00 pm

    Just to highlight mind-numbed denial of the existence of certain natural phenomena by the Hot Topic eco-fascist faithful (e.g. bill in particular):-

    ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

    It reads like something out of science fiction: an active underwater volcano, a team of international experts – and a giant drill.

    To scientists, the Brothers Volcano represents the world’s best opportunity to understand how magmatic hydrothermal systems work within submarine volcanos.

    The volcano, 400km northeast of White Island, is perhaps the best mapped and understood submarine volcano known to science.

    Three kilometres wide and with a highest peak 1.2km below sea level, Brothers is the most hydrothermally active of all the volcanoes along the Kermadec Arc – itself arguably the most active chain of submarine volcanoes in the world.

    It continually throws up dark, metal-rich plumes of dissolved minerals which, when hitting cold seawater, precipitate out and gather on the sea floor.

    As this reaction occurs it can also build “chimneys” rich in metals above the vents.

    One of two vent fields that sharply contrast in their chemistry is responsible for large mineral deposits of copper and gold.

    By drilling into the volcano, scientists hope to unlock the secrets of its magma chamber, test computer models of its sea floor hydro-thermal plumbing, find out about the transport of precious metals inside the volcano, and assess diversity of microbial life within the volcano.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10877532

    # # #

    In bill’s mind, the undersea Brothers Volcano does not actually exist.

    Reply
    • Richard Treadgold says:
      April 20, 2013 at 4:42 pm

      ‘Plan to drill into marine volcano’

      This is a quote, but what is the reference, please? Ah, I see, the reference comes last. Then, your comments follow “# # #”. Confusing.

      Reply
  41. Andy says:
    May 8, 2013 at 4:50 pm

    Some great events coming your way for the climate enthusiasts:

    NZ Climate Change Conference, June 4-5 Palmerston North

    http://www.nzcccconference.org/

    Kindly sponsored by the NZ taxpayer (hey, thanks for the money guys!)
    http://www.nzcccconference.org/sponsors

    Plus (wait there’s more!) a one day workshop organised by the Orthodox Church of Modern Day Warmists

    http://www.greens.org.nz/events/climate-change-conference

    I have my registration already, for the latter, see here:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48940782/climateReg.pdf

    Reply
  42. Andy says:
    May 8, 2013 at 10:00 pm

    Early season start for the skiers

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/christchurch-life/8642948/Winter-arrives-at-Mt-Hutt

    Reply
  43. Andy says:
    May 11, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    Rodney Hide in the NBR

    “Faith, not facts, drive global warming”

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/faith-not-facts-drive-global-warming-dc-139899

    Has a good dig at Renwick

    Reply
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models v. reality
Latest climate models v. reality

As the models continue to leave actual temperature readings in their dust, sizeable warming halted about 1995 — although it might resume at any time. It must hasten to have any hope of catching up with the predictions.

If you claim warming continues, we want evidence of continued warming — eminently reasonable. Making us wait for 17 years for that evidence invites us to doubt you.

Claiming that warming hasn't stopped is the same as claiming it has — and both are ridiculous, for nobody knows the future. The best you can do is describe the past.

Click graph for larger version.

 

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