Politics
This thread is for discussion of general political issues not covered by other threads.
Climate Conversation Group
Taking the heat out of global warming
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
For the first time in history, people shouting “the end is nigh” are somehow
the sane ones, while those of us who say it is not are now the lunatics.
Latest climate models v. reality
As the models continue to leave actual temperature readings in their dust, sizeable warming halted about 1995 — although it might resume at any time. It must hasten to have any hope of catching up with the predictions.
If you claim warming continues, we want evidence of continued warming — eminently reasonable. Making us wait for 17 years for that evidence invites us to doubt you.
Claiming that warming hasn't stopped is the same as claiming it has — and both are ridiculous, for nobody knows the future. The best you can do is describe the past.
Click graph for larger version.
Climate Conversations Group Questions to Ministers – Climate Change Issues, Nick Smith and Research, Science and Technology (in Charge of NIWA), Wayne Mapp
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/world-of-sceptical-questions-unfolds%E2%80%A6/
Climate Change: Politics and Political Positions
Communication: Getting Eye-Time
Writing Headlines – Writing Articles
MSM, Google News, Internet Search Hooks, Public Exposure
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/world-of-sceptical-questions-unfolds%E2%80%A6/#comment-25575
Heightening Public Awareness
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/world-of-sceptical-questions-unfolds%E2%80%A6/#comment-25567
CSIRO Bureau of Meteorology
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/2010/10/world-of-sceptical-questions-unfolds%E2%80%A6/#comment-25456
Connections
NIWA – Tyndall – Science Media Centre – Royal Society (NZ) – Gluckman – Smith – IPCC – Media etc
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/open-threads/climate/global-warming-general-001/#comment-25877
John O’Sullivan sent me this today
ever wonder about that private police team that never submitted a final report on their CRU investigations?
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6674
News from Canada:
The inconvenient truth about the climate change bill
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/11/18/greg-weston-climate-change-bill.html?ref=rss
I wonder when someone other than Christopher Booker will start to ask similar questions in the UK?
Indeed, I seem to remember a bunch of people wanted 40% reductions in NZ. Can any of these guys actually do sums?
Andy James Delingpole is a questioner
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/jamesdelingpole/
How the Climategate weasels wriggled free
This week marks the anniversary of Climategate but even though I helped break and name the story I’m certainly not celebrating. That’s because, despite the marked shift it effected in public opinion, its effect on public policy-making has been close to zilch.
For chapter and verse on the horrifying disjunct between what all sane, informed people know about “Anthropogenic Global Warming” (ie, it’s a crock) and what our governments are doing in response (ie, “Nyah nyah. Not listening. We’re going to go ahead with our crazy tax, regulation and wind farm schemes anyway”) I refer you to this superb summary by M’Learned Friend Booker.
…
James has written quite a lot about AGW himself on his blog
OK, I stand corrected. I meant someone other than Christopher Booker, James Delingpole, Richard North. i.e someone in the libtard lamestream media. (to use a Dellerism)
Wouldn’t happen to be anything to do with those enormous green investments in the BBC pension funds would it?
a good rundown on events since Climategate (thanks to Climate Depot)
http://climategate.tv/2010/11/19/climategate-is-still-the-issue/
READ ME for Harry’s work on the CRU TS2.1/3.0 datasets, 2006-2009!
http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/HARRY_READ_ME.txt
Well, keen-eyed viewers will remember that all the tmin/tmax/dtr/back-to-tmin-and-tmax stuff revolves around the tmin and tmax databases being kept in absolute step. That is, same stations, same coordinates and names, same data spans. Otherwise the job of synching, and of converting to DTR, becomes horrendous. But look at what happens to the line counts of the databases as they’re mangled through the system:
originals ** identical metadata **
606244 tmn/tmn.0708071548.dtb
606244 tmx/tmx.0708071548.dtb
climat conversions
27090 climat.tmn.0902192248.dtb
27080 climat.tmx.0902192248.dtb
climat merged interims
607692 int2.tmn.0902192248.dtb
604993 int2.tmx.0902192248.dtb
bom conversions ** identical metadata **
5388 bom.tmn.0902192248.dtb
5388 bom.tmx.0902192248.dtb
bom merged (into climat interims) interims
607692 int3.tmn.0902192248.dtb
604993 int3.tmx.0902192248.dtb
Sometimes life is just too hard. It’s after midnight – again. And I’m doing all this over VNC in 256 colours, which hurts. Anyway, the above line counts. I don’t know which is the more worrying – the fact that adding the CLIMAT updates lost us 1251 lines from tmax but gained us 1448 for tmin, or that the BOM additions added sod all. And yes – I’ve checked, the int2 and int3 databases are IDENTICAL. Aaaarrgghhhhh.
[I don't know if HARRY put the FOI files on an ftp server in the first place but I'll bet he was the guy that pointed everyone to them. The Architectural Structural Mech/Elec Construction sector is light years ahead of these guys when it comes to data definition, standardization, manageable modules (OO) etc]
Hooray for Harry on Climategate anny!
I still find it hard to believe that we are expected to believe this stuff was hacked from the outside.
I see that John Graham Cummings bug fix for the Met Office still remains unresolved at their end.
“I still find it hard to believe that we are expected to believe this stuff was hacked from the outside.”
Or, in my case
I still find it hard to believe that we are expected to believe this stuff.
And I can’t reconcile the 2006-2009 date.
The travails of HARRY are similar to what I experienced in a COBOL programming night class at Waikato Polytech back in the 80′s. The Tutor gave us a banking problem involving transactions and file updates that grew in complexity very quickly so that we all tied ourselves in knots. The Tutor then introduced us to the concept of manageable modules to solve the problem and armed with that knowledge I then went on to embed SQL in COBOL to transact with a DBMS (much parameter setting) without too much difficulty for the first time at Waikato Polytech, much to the tutors amazement. I think his exact words were “I can’t believe this is happening”.
I did read in CESM blurb that Fortran 90 modules are as close to OO as a procedural language gets. In the CRU situation I would have thought that if the raw data was in a strictly defined format that one of the latest generation high-level automated programming tools would churn out the code after similar system design was completed.
Maybe even an EDI system similar to KiwiPlus that Zespri uses to request daily packing orders from Packhouses all around the country.
I can’t see how they can persevere with that mode of operation, HARRY’s gone so who are the poor sod(s) that now run that system.
The workarounds are interesting too. HARRY again:
“Bear in mind that there is no working synthetic method for cloud, because Mark New
lost the coefficients file and never found it again (despite searching on tape
archives at UEA) and never recreated it. This hasn’t mattered too much, because
the synthetic cloud grids had not been discarded for 1901-95, and after 1995
sunshine data is used instead of cloud data anyway.”
[Snip]
“The conclusion of a lot of investigation is that the synthetic cloud grids
for 1901-1995 have now been discarded. This means that the cloud data prior
to 1996 are static.
Edit: have just located a ‘cld’ directory in Mark New’s disk, containing
over 2000 files. Most however are binary and undocumented..
Eventually find fortran (f77) programs to convert sun to cloud:
sh2cld_tdm.for converts sun hours monthly time series to cloud percent
sp2cld_m.for converts sun percent monthly time series to cloud oktas
There are also programs to convert sun parameters:
sh2sp_m.for sun hours to sun percent
sh2sp_normal.for sun hours monthly .nrm to sunshine percent
sh2sp_tdm.for sun hours monthly time series to sunshine percent
AGREED APPROACH for cloud (5 Oct 06).
For 1901 to 1995 – stay with published data. No clear way to replicate
process as undocumented.
For 1996 to 2002:
1. convert sun database to pseudo-cloud using the f77 programs;
2. anomalise wrt 96-00 with anomdtb.f;
3. grid using quick_interp_tdm.pro (which will use 6190 norms);
4. calculate (mean9600 – mean6190) for monthly grids, using the
published cru_ts_2.0 cloud data;
5. add to gridded data from step 3.
This should approximate the correction needed.”
NATURAL DRIVERS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE
[Australian] Senate Select Committee on Climate Policy
Submission by Bob Foster, 8 April 2009
[Read SUMMARY if nothing else]
CONCLUSIONS
Understanding climate-change is a work-in-progress; because the science is still very far from settled.
However, Mazzarella14 makes a compelling case that it IS already sufficiently settled.
It is too early – and the likely penalty (in terms of needless human misery) for error is too grave – for policymakers and planners to yet choose between a self-contained and primarily people-driven climate, and its natural antithesis.
As the flow of satellite observations becomes a flood, the evidential support for a naturally-driven climate grows apace. The main underlying drivers of climate appear to be externally-linked in some way. Earth does not travel in an empty Universe.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/climate_ctte/submissions/sub573.pdf
—————————————————————————————————————————–
Includes anecdote of Victorian winemakers considering switching varieties in preparation for a warmer drier climate based on CSIRO/BOM projections (don’t know if they proceeded).
Also an Appendix
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 20 – NUMBER 1 +2 – 2009
SPECIAL ISSUE: Natural drivers of weather and climate
Papers and articles but no links unfortunately
A Null Hypothesis For CO2
Submission to the EPA (USA) CO2 endangerment finding
Roy Clark 6/17/2009
Summary
The energy transfer processes that occur at the Earth’s surface are examined from first principles. The effect of small changes in the solar constant caused by variations in the sunspot cycles and small increases in downward long wave infrared flux due to a 100 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on surface temperature are considered in detail. The changes in the solar constant are sufficient to change ocean temperatures and alter the Earth’s climate. The effects on surface temperature of small increases in downward LWIR flux are too small to be measured and cannot cause climate change. The assumptions underlying the use of radiative forcing in climate models are shown to be invalid. A null hypothesis for CO2 is proposed that it is impossible to show that changes in CO2 concentration have caused any climate change, at least since the current composition of the atmosphere was set by ocean photosynthesis about one billion years ago.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/EPA_Submission_RClark.pdf
—————————————————————————————————————————–
Sobering that this submission was ineffectual, politically.
The Nazi Origins of Apocalyptic Global Warming Theory
One of the primary pioneering theorists on apocalyptic global warming is Guenther Schwab (1902-2006), an Austrian Nazi.[i] In 1958, Schwab wrote a fictional novel built off of Goethe’s (1749-1832) Faustian religious play entitled “Dance with the Devil.” While a few scientists since the late 1800′s had contemplated the possibility of minor global warming coming from industrial pollution, Schwab used Goethe’s dramatic approach to convert the theory into an apocalyptic crisis. The book outlines many looming environmental emergencies, including anthropogenic global warming. Guenther Schwab’s very popular novel was an apocalyptic game changer. By the early 1970′s, it had been translated into several languages and had sold over a million copies.
At one point in his novel, Schwab opines on the fragile relationship between oxygen and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Assuming the planet has only about 100 years remaining, Schwab frets over the continuing rise of carbon dioxide that “will absorb and hold fast the warmth given out by the earth. This will cause the climate to become milder and the Polar ice will begin to thaw. As a result, there will be a rise in the level of the ocean and whole continents will be flooded.”
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/the_nazi_origins_of_apocalypti.html
Professional GreenPeace street beggers are titled “Outreach Campaigners – Street Team”
Pay and benefits: to $44,000 (hrly base rate with incentives)
Never a dull moment – as an Outreach Campaigner you will be working in an exciting and fast paced environment, meeting new people every day and doing something inspirational every day.
Greenpeace is an internationally recognised environmental campaigning organisation. We work across 6 key campaign areas to bring solutions to local and global environmental issues. These campaign areas include;
1. Defending the oceans
2. Preventing climate change
3. Protecting ancient forests
4. Toxic free future
5. Peace and disarmament
6. GE free future
http://www.trademe.co.nz/jobs/education/other/listing-394772525.htm
Just thought you would all like to know that.
This is the organisation that Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore describes as “anti-intellectual, anti-science, and ultimately anti-human”
I believe he has also made public statements that the organisation has been “overrun with neo-marxists”
From the horses mouth, so to speak.
My regular monitoring of Hot Topic brings up the following from reading “SOS tour adds Lakes dates; Wratt in Wellington”.
New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute?
So they’re an advocacy group.
Where do they fit in The Climate Change Scare Machine?
See – Government Funded Activists
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/10/map-the-climate-change-scare-machine-the-perpetual-self-feeding-cycle-of-alarm/
Gwynne Dyer crashes the hyperbole meter:-
From the Politics section of ‘The Christian Post’
Good advice until “third” and “fourth”.
One of the biggest bones-of-contention from sceptics.
If Katherine Hayhoe is typical of the genre then heaven help us (and the Evangelicals).
Is it true or not?
Eija-Riitta Korhola [Finnland]
europarlamentaarikko
Probably I am not the only one who has been wondering about the apparent contradictions that arise from the various climate positions. Meteorologists claim that global warming has made a slow-down and describe the current epoch as cooler. Hence, temperatures do not seem to be in line with the predictions of the greenhouse theory. At the same time, others, like the World Bank in its November report, stress that the situation is worse than ever: emissions have increased and a temperature rise of four degrees is predicted for this century.
How should we interpret these contradictions? Measured temperatures have been commonly understood as hard facts in the past. The fact that temperatures have not significantly increased during the first decade of this century can easily be checked by anyone. The conclusions that we should draw from this are a mystery, however. Changes in global temperatures could also be considered features of natural climate variability. The climate has always been changing at regular intervals.
[...]
As I am a free thinker with no taboos, I want to express this out loud. The world should be portrayed the way it is, and a politician should also welcome crude facts. We should not force data or fit circles into squares – this mentality belongs to another world and another political ideology.
But do we make sensible policies?
>>>>>>>
http://www.korhola.com/lang/fi/2013/01/is-it-true-or-not/
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=11038